It will still be very difficult for GWB to win without OH. He will almost certainly have to hold on to NH, NV, and WV. Plus he must add WI and one or two others, most likely NM and IA. NM seems to be leaning slightly to the GOP now but IA is back to leaning Kerry. I guess it is just populated by morons. ;-)
If Bush takes CO but they vote to split their electoral votes then Kerry picks up probably 3 or 4 there. Plus this idiot GOP elector in WV says he may defect and not vote for Bush. I think Mr Bush must end up with at least 275 on election night or this could take a while to decide. The best strategy is to make sure FL is solid and then pour every available resource into OH. I dont see how the Repubs can lose without it.
And is anybody actually thinking about the realistic possibility that Turayza could be in the White House? She is a 'world citizen' and the first billionaire to reside there? I don't think this is getting nearly enough attention in the media. It reflects on Kerry's character that this is the woman he is putting forth to America.
I don't have numbers, but spoke today to a national campaign staffer. We will win WI. Based on our own campaign polling. Also: regardless of what is posted at RCP, Michels is trailing Finegold by 5 pts, only, State and National GOP is pouring money and staff into WI for Michels.
And we understand margins needed to overcome fraud and we are working actively in targeted precincts to detect and deter it.
This year, from what I have seen of the internal numbers w/in the polls that have been published (state polls), Ds have fewer black votes, fewer Hispanic votes, fewer Jewish votes and fewer female votes. Some will stay home and enough seem to be voting for Bush to increase our margins over 2000.
Do not get complacent. Personally, I am passing this on to the volunteers and telling them not to publicize it. It motivates the volunteers and helps them motivate the voters.
Also, in WI, our phone surveys of GOP voters in my single county shows a vast majority supporting the entire ticket.