Posted on 10/08/2004 9:03:15 AM PDT by Owen
Friday October 08, 2004--On the day of the second Presidential Debate, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Regardless of who they want to win, 53% of voters think President Bush will be re-elected.
I agree. Voter fraud is going to play a huge part in this election. After that, it will be the scads of lawyers searching for reasons to do recounts and recounts and recounts. God help us all.
"2 point or whatever trend we're struggling to find, won't do it.Voter fraud will account for at least two points for Kerry and turnout for Kerry will be really high, so Bush has to be up by at least 4 or 5.
Tonight's his last chance to put away this twit. If he fails, it will be a 2000 repeat"
This is silly. If Rasmusssen is right (who knows) and we win the popular vote by 2% neither Fla or Ohio will be close enough for fraud to matter a recount to occur. Last election Bush lost the electoral vote, fraud and a recount happened and Bush became President.
What has happened to this site. Nonsense like the above is everywhere, I have never seen such defeatist tripe in my life. Have the trolls taken over? Is everyone off their meds? Are Freepers just a buch of panty twisting weeinies?
I like realism as much as anyone and when I see Bush down in the polls and tradesports with Kerry ahead I'll be more pessimistic.
Guy, Bush only has to be competent. Expectations have lowered. If he shows up better than last week, THAT will be the story. That he has improved and looks much better than he did.
Frankly, if that happens I expect there to be no 3rd debate. Bush's team will be able to say that two have been enough and all issues have been explored. This might bother a very few (mostly Dems if they are behind), but given debates have already taken place there will be no charge of him "being afraid".
He really has a low bar to jump over tonight. The race is reverting to a Bush lead and there's no reason to put the ball in the air when there is less than 30 seconds on the clock and you are ahead.
I saw on FoxNews this morning so far Bush has picked up 55% of undecideds and Kerry 43% Also Bush has a big lead among men and a slight lead among women.
No problem.
Agreed: this is a very positive sign. Now we need W to go out there tonight and open up a Texas-sized can o' Whuppass on the sad sack socialist Senator. Momentum starts with Offense.
I believe Bush will win, but the Democrats will stop at nothing to win this election and they will do whatever it is they think it takes. I think that if you could somehow make the election and campaigning completely free of corruption, that Bush would win by a landslide. But that's dreaming
That being said, the news from Iraq could be our undoing. I believe CentCom's indication that offensive action may resume, could be a good thing.
Good data. But again, I don't think anyone can know for sure what the turnout mix will be. All you can do managing behavior is work from the trends, which *can* be measured accurately.
Rasmussen says the trend has reverted to pro Bush. This makes sense. People who leaned Bush a week ago need very little encouragement to re-embrace that attitude.
Tonight need only be competent. If he is relaxed and says what needs saying without too much rambling, the talk will be of what an improvement there has been.
At that point, I think they just bow out of the 3rd debate. No need to take chances after that.
Yes, you are right. I will stop criticizing Karl Rove, keeping in mind Ronald Reagan's 11 Commandment.
If Bush has a huge lead among men and a slight lead among women...there is NO WAY he can lose? After all there is no other voters except Men and Women..regardless whether they have passports, smoke, do crack....or whatever other group they like to break down.
It does seem like there is a major offensive under way in Iraq. That's risky politically. It is totally necessary, but realize that casualties will play against Bush; action and "doing something" plays in his favor.
52%
At least half of this debate will be Iraq and Terrorism, which are Kerry's great weaknesses. If Bush can nail him for good on these issues, it's over. The Third debate will be exclusively domestic issues, and no one will pay much attention.
You might be interested in the "voter fraud repository" http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1229355/posts?page=231
In other words, even on his worst day Bush cannot be beaten by Kerry.
you forgot about the dead
If Bush even holds his own, it's over. The only question is by how much Bush wins: 320 or 400 EVs.
I don't want blood "drawn". I want to see Kerry's head placed on a rhetorical spike and paraded around the room.
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