Posted on 10/08/2004 3:49:33 AM PDT by Hawkeye
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWS SERVICE
WASHINGTON - President Bush and Sen. John Kerry will meet for Round 2 tonight with Bush under pressure to stop Kerry's momentum and counteract a spate of bad news on Iraq.
Bush heads into the second presidential debate, a town-hall meeting in St. Louis, after a lackluster performance in the first contest and a week of news that called into question his handling of the Iraq war.
Recent polls show that Kerry, the underdog before the debate Sept. 30, either has closed the gap or has a narrow lead over the president.
At tonight's forum, audience members will question the candidates on foreign affairs and domestic policies for 90 minutes, starting at 9 p.m. EDT. Charles Gibson of ABC's Good Morning America will moderate the question-and-answer session at Washington University in St. Louis.
Kerry, who repeatedly challenged the president's handling of Iraq in the last debate, will have new ammunition for this encounter, including:
• On Monday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said he hadn't seen any "strong, hard evidence" linking Iraq and al-Qaida terrorists. His statement was in keeping with a new CIA assessment that undercut White House claims of strong links between Iraq and al-Qaida. Rumsfeld retracted the statement Tuesday.
• On Tuesday, L. Paul Bremer, the former top U.S. official in Iraq, was quoted as saying the United States "never had enough troops on the ground." That echoed prewar advice from top American generals, led by Army Chief of Staff Gen. Eric Shinseki, that several hundred thousand troops would be necessary to secure the peace -- advice that Bush and the civilian leaders at the Defense Department ignored.
• On Wednesday, Charles Duelfer, the top U.S. weapons inspector, concluded that there was no basis in fact for central elements of the president's rationale for war. In the most extensive report to date on Iraq's weapons programs, Duelfer found no evidence that Iraq had produced any weapons of mass destruction after 1991. He said Iraq's ability to make nuclear weapons was deteriorating, not improving as Bush and other administration officials had claimed.
• Every day, car bombs and other violence continue to wrack Iraq, calling into question the president's contention that progress is being made toward stability.
In light of these developments, Kerry tested a new line of attack yesterday during a break from his debate preparation.
"This week has provided definitive evidence as to why George Bush should not be re-elected president of the United States," he said in Englewood, Colo., where he's been holding mock town-hall meetings, with aides posing as citizen questioners.
The president and other top administration officials sought yesterday to minimize any damage from Duelfer's report by highlighting the inspector's conclusion that former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein intended to revive his weapons programs as soon as he was freed from international arms inspections.
Bush said Hussein "retained the knowledge, the materials, the means and the intent to produce weapons of mass destruction. And he could have passed that knowledge on to our terrorist enemies."
The president campaigned in Wisconsin before heading to St. Louis to rest before the debate.
In Colorado, Kerry used a hotel ballroom at the Inverness golf resort as a makeshift debate set, with seats for the audience, podiums and colored lights to limit responses.
Strategists from both parties and independent analysts agreed that the town-hall format plays to Bush's strengths.
The president is most comfortable in informal settings in which he can interact with average Americans. Kerry used the more formal format of last week's debate to his advantage, but he can come across as stiff and formal sometimes when working a crowd.
"Every time he goes into one of those things we all hold our breath," one Kerry campaign adviser said, insisting on anonymity to speak somewhat critically of his boss. "It could be great, it could be terrible, it could be somewhere in between."
Mitchell McKinney, a political communication professor at the University of Missouri, said the town-hall format put a premium on personality.
McKinney, who's researched viewers' responses to various types of presidential debates, said voters tended to see the questioners at town-hall meetings as their stand-ins.
"We see in all the polls that deal with likability that George Bush outscores Kerry in that regard," McKinney said.
Since Sunday, Kerry's schedule has been heavy on town-hall meetings as a tune-up for the debate; aides have stood by with stopwatches to make sure the notoriously long-winded Massachusetts senator kept his answers short.
The two types of presidential debates are controlled by an agreement signed by candidates Bush and Kerry and the Commission on Presidential Debates.
Town-hall style
Moderator: Calls on pre-selected audience member, who asks pre-approved question; microphone then turned off
• Before debate, moderator selects, approves pool of questions; then they are selected at random
Audience: Selected by Gallup Organization; equal number of Bush and Kerry soft supporters
• 100-150 people seated in horseshoe around candidates
Candidates: Can move about in predesignated area; may not leave area during debate; areas cannot overlap
Response time limits for one question: First candidate, 2 min.; Other candidate, 1.5 min.; Further discussion: 30 sec. each
Traditional debate
Moderator poses questions from table in front of and equidistant from candidates
• No candidate can use riser to appear taller or sit on stool, chair
• No props, notes, charts, diagrams
Other rules
• No opening statements
• At start of debates, candidates walk to center stage, shake hands, go to podium or stool
• Pens, pencils, paper for note taking must be submitted to debate officials in advance
• No reference to or citing of specific individual in audience
• Neither candidate can ask each other direct questions
• Commission shall "use best efforts to maintain an appropriate temperature"
What about the polls that show a slam-dunk for Bush based on the question "Who do you trust as a better leader?" (or something like that)
If you don't think Bush is on the knife edge of losing re-election you are in severe denial.
I was really down in the dumps yesterday after listening to JFK trashing my president.
I'm a little more optimistic today, though.
I think President Bush will rise to, and above, the occasion this evening.
Also, I pray alot.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1238640/posts
What I Really Said About Iraq (Bremer)
NY Times ^ | October 8, 2004 | L. PAUL BREMER III
I'm not in denial. All the same, I don't believe the American people have decided to go with Kerry yet. That's why tonight's debate is so important for the President - he needs to go on the offense and keep his opponent off stride and off balance for the entire evening. He doesn't have to win the last debate. If he can't connect with people in a townhall setting --- well, we will know then and there he doesn't have the fire in his belly to fight to keep his job for another four years.
He will do a lot better not chained to a podium. Also, because of the fact the moderator does not have exclusive control I suspect Kerry will get a question or two that will make him eat some crow - taxes on small business, etc.
Please do not start the doom and gloom stuff even before the debate. Do something postivate to help this President be re-elected.
The same can be said for Bush...he will also be blindsided by some of the audience questions. Kerry's camp has been huddled for a week now coming up with new insults to hurl at Bush, intending to throw him off his "likeable" stride.
Bush is going to have to walk a tightrope tonight: Hit Kerry hard while maintaining his "likeable leader" image. It's a tough assignment.
I think one way to do it would be for Bush to attack Kerry's "negativity" as opposed to each specific lie. If Bush can leave voters thinking the Dems are responsible for our uncivil political atmosphere, he will have helped himself tremendously. He must turn Kerry's negativity into a liability, so that every time Kerry starts lying people will say to themselves, "There he goes again".
Go get 'em, Dubya!
The difference with Bush being blindsided is that he will honestly answer the question...Kerry will get defensive and get ugly. This is just my prediction. I mean anyone who will blame those around him for his minor mistakes;i.e. the secret service man made me fall, is not going to be able to come back with civility when he is asked a tough question. I wouldn't be surprised if a vet's in that audience tonight with a really hard question. I hope so. I want to see Kerry squirm!
I'm concerned, since realclearpolitics.com has shown the average lead for Bush shrink from 6 pts. to 1 pt. in a week's time.
Also, electoral-vote.com now shows Kerry with enough EV's to win.
Do I think Bush will win? Yes, I do. Am I at least somewhat concerned that he won't? Yes.
The difference is I believe the American people *are* foolish enough to choose Kerry and return us to the failed appeasement foreign policies of Clinton & Carter.
Since I'm in CA, I'm not exactly in a position to have much influence. It's ultimately up to the President to win this thing and I'm finding his campaign to be too passive, is failing to make the case that his re-election is ESSENTIAL.
ALL: if there are "NO GO ZONES" in Iraq how is it the CIA is absolutely certain there are not and were never WMDs in Iraq since 1991?
I'm skeptical of letting an audience ask questions..what was Gallup's criteria? How would they know if someone said they were a "soft" Bush supporter, but really were a Kerry supporter lying in wait?
Ideas?
Then I agree with you. You are not a troll but a PROPHET. And prophets are never popular in their own times.
I think there is a chance W can win the debate tonight, but I'm not expecting him to hit it "out of the park."
Hope I'm wrong, though.
I think the Dems are going to play dirty for the rest of the campaign, too. Even so, there are alot of really unattractive things about Kerry that could potentially sink him if they get enough exposure.
I'm not naive. I know that this election is close and everyone is out for political blood.
Note to Prez: Please do not use the phrase "It's hard work" again. That would be the only thing the press would talk about the next day.
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