Posted on 10/07/2004 5:05:06 PM PDT by GiovannaNicoletta
Despite President Bush's unnerving performance in the first debate and subsequent slippage in nationwide polls, his prospects for November 2 in the Electoral College still look good.
Republican insiders believe their man is holding his lead in a few key "blue" states that Al Gore won narrowly in 2000: New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin. They also believe Bush remains strongly competitive in additional "blue" states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Oregon.
Before last Thursday's debate, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll completed September 28 put Bush ahead of Kerry 49% to 46% among likely voters in Pennsylvania, although the same poll showed Kerry leading 49% to 45% among registered voters. A Detroit Free Press poll also completed September 28 similarly put Bush ahead of Kerry 50% to 48% among likely voters, while Kerry led 48% to 46% among registered voters.
A Strategic Vision poll in Minnesota, also completed September 28, showed Bush trailing Kerry in that traditionally Democratic state by only 2 points, 48% to 46%.
In Oregon, however, a Portland Tribune poll completed September 23 put Kerry up among likely voters, 50% to 43%.
Republicans believe that state ballot initiatives to ban same-sex marriage should help Bush in both Oregon and Michigan.
Same goes for Ohio, where Bush has maintained a healthy lead despite strong Democratic efforts in the state. A Columbus Dispatch poll completed October 1 put Bush over Kerry 51% to 44% among likely voters there.
In Florida, the deciding state in 2000, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll completed September 27 put Bush ahead of Kerry 52% to 43% among likely voters.
Democrats, meanwhile, are having difficulty finding a "red" state that went to Bush in 2000 where Kerry can win this year. For example, Republicans believe Bush has already locked up both Missouri and West Virginia.
Kerry's two best chances may be in New Hampshire and Colorado. But a post-debate University of New Hampshire poll completed October 3 showed Bush over Kerry, 50% to 45%, among likely voters in the Granite State. In Colorado, however, a Rocky Mountain News poll completed September 13 put Bush up by just one point among likely voters, 45% to 44%.
Unless he can succeed in using the two remaining presidential debates to force a fundamental shift in the underlying momentum of the campaign, Kerry may find himself in the final days of the campaign still playing defense in too many of the "blue" states and offense in too few of the "red."
It's hard to see how Kerry could put together an EC map at this point. Rasmussen is showing 194 ... I can't see how he can get 270.
Yeah, I hope your'e right about Florida, tenthirteen. As long as we can defeat all the FRAUD Democrats are capable of committing.
Not sure but rumors are around about a video of Kerry burning and peeing on the flag. Shawn says he has a very important interview but won't say what.
When the film of sKerry came out showing him pulling his cheat cards out of his pocket and placing them on the podium, and there was not one mumbling word from James Baker, I began to wonder whether the Repubs were indeed wimping out!!!
I think OH will eventually break for Bush. But, even if Kerry takes OH, he still needs all of the other states. Meanwhile, Bush can win it all by taking PA or MI or a combination of IA and WI. In IA and WI, Bush is already ahead by greater margins than in OH. It is becoming apparent that Kerry simply has to defend too much territory.
I am not even watching the news anymore. Its all Kerry all the time.
Isnt it amazing how some Christians are so perfect that they totally lack common sense? Sort of like them perfect liberals in their attitude.
Yep, just at different ends of the political spectrum. It always amazes me that Christians won't vote because the candidate isn't "perfect" in their eyes.
That's a interesting rumor. Much as I'd love to see UBL in chains, Zaqwari the butcher would do just fine too. The thought was he was hiding in Fallujah. I wonder how Cheney knew he was in Baghdad? Hmmm...
Look instead for George P. to begin a stellar career in politics. This kid has success written all over him.
Yes, but don't forget the drunk driving surprise. That had a big impact on evangelicals. Also, four years ago we didn't know that Dan Rather was a democratic operative and could sway votes in the Florida panhandle by calling that election early.
FL & OH are key states.
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