Swing Voters Split; Swing Voter Split Makes for Close Race (Bush leads 49% to 47%)

ABC News ^ | 10/7

[ambrose]

As the second presidential debate nears, a new ABC News poll shows a split in swing voters is making for a close race. (The Associated Press)

Swing Voters Split Swing Voter Split Makes for Close Race Analysis By Cheryl Arnedt Oct. 7, 2004 — The presidential candidates face off in their second debate Friday night with strong positions in their respective bases — and even splits in classic swing voter groups.

Independents divide by 47 percent to 46 percent between John Kerry and President Bush in the latest ABC News tracking poll, and white Catholics by 49 percent to 50 percent. These have been the quintessential swing voters in presidential elections, by dint of their size and shifting allegiances. The candidate who has won independents and white Catholics has been elected president in every election since 1980, according to exit polls.

Age

Another potential factor in this year's high-interest and high-registration contest is young voters. They are not terribly different: Among likely voters 18 to 29 years old, 49 percent support Kerry, 46 percent Bush. Turnout matters, with this group as with all, and young voters are much less likely than their elders to know their polling place (or alternatively to say they'll vote absentee) — raising questions about their appearance at the polls. There's plenty of time, though, for them to learn where to vote.

Senior citizens, a traditionally engaged and active voter group, divide the same as young voters: Forty-nine percent for Kerry, 47 percent for Bush.

These findings are very similar to the exit poll results in 2000: Seniors chose Al Gore over Bush by 50 percent to 47 percent; young voters, by 48 percent to 46 percent. These were roughly the same size groups in 2000 turnout: Seniors accounted for 14 percent of all voters, young adults, 17 percent.

Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.

The overall race is similarly close, 49 percent to 47 percent between Bush and Kerry among likely voters, with 1 percent for Ralph Nader, in interviews conducted Monday through Wednesday nights. That's the same as Wednesday, when the race nudged tighter after a nearly monthlong Bush lead. Kerry's performance in last week's debate consolidated his support, raising the stakes for their next debate, the second of three.

Likely Voter Preferences
	Bush	Kerry

Total

49%

47

Independents

46

47

White Catholics

50

49

Divided or Conquered

Movable voters, those who haven't definitely made up their minds, make up 13 percent of likely voters, down from 19 percent two weeks ago. They're also split, 45 percent for Bush, 42 percent for Kerry, 4 percent for Nader. One thing that distinguishes them is that, beyond those who say their minds are not made up, 10 percent of movables remain undecided entirely.

But it's not only moveables who divide; "definites," those who say their minds are made up, split down the middle as well, 50 percent/49 percent Bush/Kerry.

While men and women often are described en masse, there are divisions within their numbers. Bush does better with married men (55 percent to 41 percent) and married women (a closer 51 percent to 46 percent) alike; Kerry, better among unmarried men (52 percent to 42 percent) and unmarried women (56 percent to 41 percent). Demographic differences help explain these divisions; for example, unmarrieds include more blacks, the most loyal Democratic group.

Likely Voter Preferences
	Bush	Kerry
All	49%	47
19-29	46	49
65 and older	47	49
Movables	45	42
Definites	50	49
Married Men	55	41
Married Women	51	46
Unmarried Men	42	52
Unmarried Women	41	56

As noted, both major-party candidates are strong in their bases: Kerry is supported by 89 percent of Democrats; by 86 percent of blacks, a core Democratic group; and by 81 percent of liberals, who account for one in five voters. Bush is winning support from 90 percent of Republicans; 74 percent of evangelical white Protestants, a core Republican group; and 77 percent of conservatives, who account for about a third of all voters.

Methodology

This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 4-6 among a random national sample of 1,803 adults, including 1,498 registered voters and 1,167 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

See previous analyses in our Poll Vault.

Copyright © 2004 ABC News Internet Ventures.
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[RockinRight]

86 percent of blacks

Gore got something like 93%. If all Kerry gets is 86% of Black voters, he's French Toast.

[conservativepoet]

Even after all the MSM's psychobabble this week, there's some real hope buried deep in the article: "Movable voters, those who haven't definitely made up their minds, make up 13 percent of likely voters, down from 19 percent two weeks ago. They're also split, 45 percent for Bush, 42 percent for Kerry, 4 percent for Nader."

[red flanker]

Despite the conventional wisdom, the VP debate had enough impact that Cheney set the ticket for a win in November (along with current news events).

The SurveyUSA results show that Cheney not only was seen as the winner in traditional red regions, but also won in Detroit, Baltimore and even Cleveland.

[marblehead17]

ping

[IGOTMINE]

Your perspective ping

[Graybeard58]

Something stinks about all these national polls showing such a close race when the various state polls show GWB gaining everywhere,p>

[Mike Darancette]

Remember 50% is the magic number --- Kerry has to take voters now for Bush in order to win!!!

[Soul Seeker]

I'm starting to believe we've been lied to. More so then we're aware of.

The Top numbers and internals are NOT matching up.

How can G.W. be clipping Kerry's support in minorities, catholics, jews and women (remember he only needs to improve in these categories not take majority), have a higher committment from his base vote, AND be tied among Indy's and only be 2% ahead?

[demlosers]

I'm starting to believe we've been lied to. More so then we're aware of.

A plausible assumption since the MSM wants Bush defeated.

[Coop]

Gore got something like 93%.

I don't buy that for a sec. 85%, okay. But over 90? Nahhhh. There were all sorts of shenanigans going on in predominantly black Dem districts on Election night.

[Coop]

How can G.W. be clipping Kerry's support in minorities, catholics, jews and women (remember he only needs to improve in these categories not take majority), have a higher committment from his base vote, AND be tied among Indy's and only be 2% ahead?

Simple. Reduce the GOP percentage and increase the Dem percentage.

[Pharmer]

"The Top numbers and internals are NOT matching up."

This seems to be the problem with these tracking polls. I've had the same issue with Rasmussen Polls that have shown internals far in favor of Bush than the final score. I've pinged Dales, FR poll guru to try to explain this to me but have yet to get a reply. Dales, where are you?? Sorry about the Giants crack! Really!

[deport]

93%.......... Where did you get that number?

Here's the exit polling data for 2000........

CLICK

			.	GORE	BUSH	BUCHANAN	NADER
	Are you:
	% of total		category	% of category
	81		White	43	53	1	3
	10		Black	90	8	1	1
	7		Hispanic/Latino	63	33	1	3
	2		Asian	55	41	1	3
	2		Other	57	37	0	4

[Soul Seeker]

I'll admit I have my suspicions...

But bottomline, either the internals aren't accurate or the top number isn't accurate. I do not see how an honest poll can reconcile these disparities.

Bush is going to increase his base vote. He is not bleeding Republicans to Kerry or apathy. Christians are highly motivated. I suspect NRA members are going to be fairly reliable after the ban expired.

These same polls that say the vote is close, also state-

1) Dems increasing support for Bush or not voting for Kerry.
2) Minorities increasing support for Bush or not voting for Kerry.
3) Catholics about tied, which would be an increase for Bush.
4) Jews increasing numbers for Bush.

Note-not majorities in these groups but increases and a Dem cannot win against an opponent that has his core prepped to vote in record numbers. Even fraud could not overcome the disadvantages these internals would suggest.

So, I would like to ask the polling companies to reconcile these discrepancies among top and internal numbers.

[ambrose]

Pure speculation:

pollsters weight down the horse race numbers, but not the internals...

[Soul Seeker]

Add Bush Increasing support among the Female vote as well.

[Soul Seeker]

Which could mean the real story of the outcome of the race will be found in the internals?

If that theory holds true, Nov. 2nd could be a shock to a number of people.

[dalebert]

I don't think this is a split country. We are outnumbered by non all Americans. Most of the people who come to this country only want money. The future of this country is nothing to them. Patriotism is lacking. Americans are becoming a minority in America.

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by Soul Seeker:

I'm starting to believe we've been lied to. More so then we're aware of.

The Top numbers and internals are NOT matching up.

How can G.W. be clipping Kerry's support in minorities, catholics, jews and women (remember he only needs to improve in these categories not take majority), have a higher committment from his base vote, AND be tied among Indy's and only be 2% ahead?

Here is a paragraph from a recently released ABC News/Washington Post poll for some additional information:

PARTY TIME – A final note, and a final worry for Kerry, is political party identification. It’s shifted lately, which is not surprising in an election; moving political allegiance is what campaigns are all about. Republicans held an advantage in party allegiance among likely voters in the last ABC/Post poll, taken after Bush’s convention: 38-32 percent, with 26 percent independents. It’s a closer 35-36-23 percent in this poll, yet Bush still leads.

Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, September 23-26, 2004. PDF file, page 7/22.

If you look at the partisan affiliation breakdowns which are occasionally published in the analytical portion of the ABC News/Washington Post poll publications you will notice the the percentages of Republicans, Democrats and Independents never quite adds up to 100%. There appears to be an average of around 5.3% (classify them as 'Others') which up to total to 100% of the sample population of registered (or likely) voters who were called.

Here are the R/D/I splits from back-figuring the ABC News/Washington Post poll numbers for the partisan affiliation preference against the overall three-way results for Bush-Kerry-Nader. They seem to have a fourth catagory of voters, "OTHERS" who make up an average of 5.3% of the poll respondents and who have no breakdowns available.

		ABCNews/Washington  Post  Results
		All  polls  Registered  or  Likely  Voters
		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	Other
June  17-20,  2004	94.9%	29.8%	37.5%	27.6%	5.1%	1,015  RV	100.0%
July  22-25,  2004	96.2%	33.1%	34.4%	28.7%	3.8%	974  RV	100.0%
July  30-  August  1,  2004	93.5%	28.6%	38.7%	26.2%	6.5%	940  RV	100.0%
August  26-29,  2004	93.3%	32.9%	31.7%	28.7%	6.7%	945  RV	100.0%
September  6-8,  2004	94.4%	35.2%	30.5%	28.8%	5.6%	952  RV	100.0%
September  23-26,  2004	95.7%	33.0%	35.6%	27.0%	4.3%	969  RV	100.0%
October  1-3,  2004	94.7%	36.3%	31.9%	26.5%	5.3%	1,169  LV	100.0%
October  2-4,  2004	95.0%	36.6%	31.6%	26.7%	5.0%	1,160  LV	100.0%

Hope this helps...

dvwjr