Bush is Losing. Here's why. Let's discuss.

vanity | 10/7/04 | Timeout

[Timeout]

I believe I've figured out Kerry's strategy, especially in the debates. Actually, it's Schrum's stategy...he tried it with Al Gore, but Gore couldn't carry it off. With Kerry, I think it's working. Kerry is a better actor.

THEIR STRATEGY: Take the "likeability" card out of contention. Create an atmosphere where Bush has to choose between hitting back hard or appearing weak if he doesn't respond to harsh lies about him and Cheney.

Kerry trails in the "likeability" category, so take away the president's trump card: his connection with ordinary Americans.

THEIR TACTICS: Show disdain and disrespect. Take away any atmosphere which would play to GWB's class, his folksiness, his ability to connect with ordinary people. Force him into the gutter with Kerry. (Think: punk rock culture where "dissing" garners respect).

In the very first answer, call Bush a liar (misleader). Lie about his record, misquote him. This happened in both debates so far. Call him a stubborn warmonger, "out of touch with reality". After totally insulting Bush/Cheney, Kerry AND Edwards then went on to answer the question in a way that demanded a response. This took viewers' attention off the insults at the beginning. And it forces Bush or Cheney to choose between dealing with the insults or answering the policy challenge.

This can be a win/win for Kerry:

1. If Bush & Cheney get angry but don't rise to the bait, their anger shows and it takes away the likeability factor.

2. If they do rise to the bait, they look angry, weak, and defensive. (Also accomplishes #1). __________________________________

I think this is a very real danger for Bush.

I'm no debate coach, so I don't know the best way to counter them. I'll put my suggestion in my first post. But surely out in the blogosphere there must be lots of debate coaches and strategists who can tell us how Bush and Cheney can escape this trap.

[amordei]

Gonewt and you think that? Man, you're a retard. Newt G. feels the same way about free trade that Bush does.

Frankly, if that's the rationale for your nonparticipation, it's a good thing--you're not qualified to vote anyway.

[normy]

You forgot telemarketers

[Uncle Vlad]

Bush simply needs to come out and shine a light on Kerry's indefensible Senate record. He needs to emphasize Kerry's incredibly poor attendance and Kerry's votes to cut intelligence, especially after the first World Trade Center attack.

When Kerry talks about raising taxes on only the top one percent and giving everyone else a tax cut, Bush needs to counter with the fact that Kerry voted no to eliminate the marriage penalty.

Under Bush's current policy, 15 million people are off the tax roles altogether. Kerry may call it the top 1 percent, but the majority of the people it affects are small business owners, who create two-thrids of the jobs in this country.

It's not raising taxes on the top one percent, it's raising taxes on small business, and this would kill jobs.

[RepubRep]

Your recommendation is right on target. Can you ring him up and let him know?? Republicans have got to realize they can no longer be "nice guys" and win. Got to take on the Laura Ingram attitude and call it like you see it.

I used to be one of the “nice guys” and tried to give Dems credit for SOMETHING. Not so any more. There seems to be a good against battle going on and the Dems will win at ALL costs. Can’t trust them.

[amordei]

He has a six year account. Save the disrepect for the newbies.

Though I agree with you that his suggestion best not be taken. Americans hate whiners.

[goldstategop]

E-mail to Karl Rove. Does any one have his private e-mail address? I'm sure it would be useful. Or let's hope someone from the Bush-Cheney Campaign comes across it here. I disagree with your contention though. The President went on the offense in Barre-Wilkes yesterday. He needs to lay the gloves on Kerry without being negative and I think he'll show people why he deserves to serve another four years in the White House.

[StoneColdTaxHater]

I persoanlly think thie "town hall" style debate is as rigged as a pro wrestling match. The "average Americans" in the audience will be lib media plants. I don't think this will be an unbiased forum in the least.

[Timeout]

If you don't want to discuss, go away.

I'm serious about this.
I didn't mean to start a general discussion about the whole debate and campaign. I'm addressing the specific strategy/tactic of pulling Bush down in the gutter in order to tear down the "presidential" label AND to prevent his "likeable leader" qualities from coming through.

[spacejunkie]

"I think it is very hard to make a "likable" person unlikeable"

The flip side, and even better, is you can't make an unlikeable person likeable. No one likes Kerry.

[Moolah]

You know, after thinking about it for a minute, Bush needs to do about what Cheney did. Point out the lies and waffling of Kerry.

[Sender]

I like it. I especially agree that Bush should say in no uncertain terms, "I AM NOT A LIAR. I HAVE NEVER LIED TO YOU."

[GodBlesBush]

I definately agree he needs to reply with an attack on Kerry and clearly state his position. Every response by Kerry in the first debate began with an attack on Bush. Bush built the lead after the RNC by his commerades pummeling Kerry at every turn. This isn't the time to go soft. Attacking the other candidate works.

[normy]

I don't remember, my point is this however, steel prices are important to my business but not so important that it trumps voting for Bush. Its just the kind of garbage these guys who refuse to vote base their reasoning on. They expect Bush to cover them on every single issue that is important to them or they will withhold their vote.

My opinion is get out of my way and let me do my thing, and Bush is the most likely to allow that to happen.

[Coldwater Creek]

Get this to Karen Hughes immediately. It is great. It would turn Kerry on the defensive and would be hard to recover.

[spacejunkie]

I agree with your assertion about undecideds simply because my theory is, anyone calling themself 'undecided' is reall an ashamed democrat.

[wiley]

The answer is Reaganesque humor. Disarms them everytime. Get people laughing good naturedly and the debate is over, Kerry is toast. Bush gets back his hometown good guy image, just as Reagan did with Mondale It will connect with everybody except rabid dog liberals.

[katiedidit1]

When a politician is kept on the defensive ...its a lose/lose situation...I would attack, attack and attack with a BIG smile and positive follow up of all the accomplishments done...BUT smile so pretty for the camera and say to Kerry " JOHN, Why did you miss a intelligence briefing on al qaeda to attend a Whoopi Goldburg bash and trash event??? how many intelligence briefings have YOU missed????

[UncleSamUSA]

Let me state this as plainly as possible:

Kerry and the Democrats want the terrorists to LIKE us

Bush and the Republicans want the terrorists to FEAR us

Now you figure out who the terrorists want in office for the next four years.

And my belief is: the majority of Americans ARE smart enough to figure this one out.

[4everontheRight]

And what about the workers for Toyota or BMW...just examples....these jobs were outsourced to this country! We are in a world market and we must contribute. I agree our trade deficit is huge but I see that as never going away unless we shut ourselves off from the rest of the world. I would rather have a huge trade deficit and pay $10 for a t-shirt as opposed to $50 because the US workers are in too deep with a union! JMO

[mountaineer]

ruthless outsourcing of jobs to cheap labor markets

I see you've fallen for Kerry's lies. At worst, we've come out even on so-called outsourcing. Do you understand that every "IT" job outsourced to India, for example, is counterbalanced or negated when Toyota or BMW establishes a plant in the U.S. and hires an American - at a substantial rate of pay - to build automobiles? Foreign companies also "outsource," and it's a good thing when they do it here.

Timeout, I agree that in this campaign it's just not enough to be likeable. Bush has to be strong and come across as absolutely truthful and positive, without seeming defensive. Your proposed statement for Friday's event is on the mark. On the other hand, I know a lot of voters are turned off by what they call "negative campaigning," and I think it might backfire on Kerry and Edwards that they're constantly making accusations ("Bush is lying to you") without identifying their own positions with some specificity.