Bush is Losing. Here's why. Let's discuss.

vanity | 10/7/04 | Timeout

[Timeout]

I believe I've figured out Kerry's strategy, especially in the debates. Actually, it's Schrum's stategy...he tried it with Al Gore, but Gore couldn't carry it off. With Kerry, I think it's working. Kerry is a better actor.

THEIR STRATEGY: Take the "likeability" card out of contention. Create an atmosphere where Bush has to choose between hitting back hard or appearing weak if he doesn't respond to harsh lies about him and Cheney.

Kerry trails in the "likeability" category, so take away the president's trump card: his connection with ordinary Americans.

THEIR TACTICS: Show disdain and disrespect. Take away any atmosphere which would play to GWB's class, his folksiness, his ability to connect with ordinary people. Force him into the gutter with Kerry. (Think: punk rock culture where "dissing" garners respect).

In the very first answer, call Bush a liar (misleader). Lie about his record, misquote him. This happened in both debates so far. Call him a stubborn warmonger, "out of touch with reality". After totally insulting Bush/Cheney, Kerry AND Edwards then went on to answer the question in a way that demanded a response. This took viewers' attention off the insults at the beginning. And it forces Bush or Cheney to choose between dealing with the insults or answering the policy challenge.

This can be a win/win for Kerry:

1. If Bush & Cheney get angry but don't rise to the bait, their anger shows and it takes away the likeability factor.

2. If they do rise to the bait, they look angry, weak, and defensive. (Also accomplishes #1). __________________________________

I think this is a very real danger for Bush.

I'm no debate coach, so I don't know the best way to counter them. I'll put my suggestion in my first post. But surely out in the blogosphere there must be lots of debate coaches and strategists who can tell us how Bush and Cheney can escape this trap.

[dennisw]

I've been thinking similarly. Plus if Bush can't hit back aggressively at Kerry, how tough can he be on terror? This is what the Kerry people want to instill in the mind of the electorate. That Kerry is tough, disdainful and combative with GW, he will be the same with terrorists.

[FesterUSMC]

i think your a Kerry supporter here's why... you are a pessimist and your title says Bush is Losing.

[Moolah]

I see we have a doom and gloom liberal here today. lol

[Timeout]

I admitted from the beginning that I'm not very good at this. I'm no presidential speech writer. I asked for suggestions. Perhaps you have some?

[kddid]

I think it is very hard to make a "likable" person unlikeable. By attacking a nice person, it makes one look like a bully, punk, arse, jerk, loser, etc... Just like John Kerry and his cronies. How do we feel every time Kerry and his buddies attack Bush? We get mad at the (insert name from above).

[Jerrybob]

I agree. The thing I would most like to see Bush put in the dumpster is the "he misled the American people" chant that Kerry loves to recite. I think GW should be VERY clear about what "misleading" is: having information that points to A, but leading in direction B -- a deliberate act of deception.

He should say that it appeared to the WHOLE WORLD THAT SADDAM HAD WMD.

Besides -- didn't Saddam USE nerve gas and other nasties on his own people????

HOW CAN YOU USE SOMETHING YOU DON'T HAVE???

Bush needs to put this to rest for good and, at the same time, zing Kerry in no uncertain terms.

[normy]

So your unemployed huh?

I am not voting in this election because steel prices are too high.

[Boxsford]

very well stated Timeout

[Josh in PA]

Okay, let's put a wall around the nation, so we lose the hundreds of thousands of high paying jobs brought here by German and Japanese automobile companies so we can keep the T-shirt manufacturers and $8.00/hr customer service jobs.

[amordei]

No. That's weak.

[MizSterious]

Undecideds are clueless and won't respond to reason anyway. If they haven't figured it out by now, they never will. They'll either not bother to go to the polls or they'll vote for someone because of some insignificant thing--who's first on the ballot, who is "cutest" (I have women say they've voted for people for that very "reason"), who has the best tie.

[teledude]

That is awesome.... man, I wish the Bush campaign could see it.
My initial thought was Bush needs to use humor as well. We need to laugh at the Kerry campaign... anger won't help us, but if we can get people laughing at Kerry they are toast IMHO.

[SW6906]

I have a friend who is a liberal who likes to think of himself as a moderate. He doesn't like what Bush did in Iraq, but he's not imporessed by Kerry either. He might stay home this election. He is totally turned off by what Kerry & Co. are saying and doing in this campaign. He hates rhetoric and spin. He laments that they're not disucssing the issues and giving details about what exactly they would do differently from Bush.

I believe your suggested tactic would work very well with the "undecided".

[lady lawyer]

You'd better vote. There is something fundamental at stake. Our sovereignty and security. If Kerry has his way, we will forever lose the ability to act in our own interest. Nothing will ever get better.

Is Bush perfect? No. But he has stood up to the "international community." And he is more likely to act in America's interest than Kerry. And he will take the fight to the terrorists.

[Clump]

I agree. It can be confronted in a way that shows class and strength. It must be dealt with or else Kerry will continue down this road.

[normy]

Hey! He used the word "vociferously"in the last debate! LoL

[Publius6961]

You're a confused, smarmy useful idiot.
Let's not discuss.

Go away.

[spacejunkie]

I agree about yesterday's speech...a true giant slayer. He was AWESOME while coming across both VERY likeable and forceful. I think he'll do the same tomorrow.

[GodBlesBush]

I believe Bush wanted to impose Tarriffs on imported steel but he was faced with a stiff ultimatum and he couldn't. I forgot what the ultimatum was could you enlighten me.

[plain talk]

Good post and analysis ... except for the title which is incorrect. The gist of your article says nothing to defend why you think "Bush is Losing" and he isn't. Your analysis is excellent though and right on.