Posted on 10/06/2004 1:16:18 PM PDT by Yashcheritsiy
More post-debate polling continues to come in, and for the first time in a long while, they are not really all that positive for President Bush. I think many conservatives and Republicans, in an effort to try to boost morale, are downplaying the effect the debate last Thursday really had. It didn't help, and only hurt, President Bush. That is reality, I'm sorry to say. I'm certainly not trying to hurt morale among those of us on the Right, but at the same time, we cannot act or know what to do if we pump ourselves up with an artificial view of the way the polls are going. I'm merely being pragmatic, so please don't email me nasty letters condemning me for "not playing ball". I don't play ball, I report what's going on and give the analysis as I see it from what I consider to be a pragmatic, no-nonsense point of view. If these numbers below are going to do anything, it ought to be make us pull out the stops and get into action at the grass roots level. If we want to see sanity remain in the White House, then we need to get busy doing everything we can by email, by word of mouth, by every means available, to get out the vote and turn it towards Bush. I've said it before, back when the polls looked to be rocketing for Bush - don't get overconfident. Overconfidence can lead to disillusionment when things change for the worse, as they have, and that is far worse than any polling numbers. We should always fight like were ten points behind. This being said, let us go on to today's news....
(Excerpt) Read more at studytoanswer.net ...
The problem I have with people who are relentlessly negative, but view themselves as being "realistic", is that pessimism is a contagion that spreads faster, and lasts longer, than its antidotes: optimism, perseverance and confidence. Some of us aren't great FDR fans around here, but somehow, "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself" seems a better call to arms for this election (which will thankfully be over in 3 1/2 short weeks) than the Baby Seal/Chicken Little call to hit the panic button.
One poll showed Americans of Arab descent favoring Kerry something like 80-9 percent. The DNC poll showed Jewish Americans favoring Kerry by about 75-25 over Bush. Somehow I don't believe that the two communities have the same interests in foreign policy; could someone explain to me just how they could both overwhelmingly favor the same candidate?
Thanks for your response. I've seen enough internal samples such as the one in the NewsWeek's poll that suggest a psychological game has been launched to "change the story" to "Kerry's comeback". Meecham (NewsWeek) on Hard Ball suggested that the press wants desperately to change the headlines to "Kerry: the comeback Kid". It's not a real story and we need a new kind of scepticism that intelligently handles their game.
Members of both groups fear and distrust Christians. Many of them feel Jerry Falwell is a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.
Yeah, what you said.
I would suggest that those of you falling prey to the MSM psychological ops campaign, turn the TV off for a while.
The state and national polls don't seem to jive, do they? Which ones do we believe?
Apparently, you can't handle the truth.
Are there new polls today that aren't good? Because the majority of the polling I've seen this week (including at least two polls that came out hours before the debate) has been quite solid for President Bush. I just wonder if this is not "realistic" but unnecessarily negative.
Good question. My suggestion is always look at the internals of a poll regardless of national or state and see if they make sense. For example, CBS news ran with a story from their poll suggesting Kerry improved with undecideds. What they didn't tell you is that Bush improved even more with undecideds (Bush improved 12% to Kerry's 7%.) That's an example of Psychological Operations on the public.
He mentions MO as SUSA 2 but SUSA had it 2 last month as well as everybody else had it much higher
I'm not falling prey, brain dead, so called "undecideds" are. Let's hope this is a very short lived bounce for lurch.
I don't know if we will actually know what is true until election day and with all the lawyers running around maybe not even then. If Bush DOES have something that would stop the trumped up Kerry momentum, NOW would be the time to use it!
Those Survey USA polls were taken on Sat, Sun, and Mon. Mostly a weekend poll and it was right in the middle of the post-debate frenzy. Assuming no more bounce for lurch, I think we can add a few points to the bush lead in MO, and maybe he has a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. I think some good economic numbers on Friday will really help Bush in the Midwest.
Also, I think many of us are just uneasy right now because we understand what is at stake. There is too much on the line. The Supreme Court and national sovereignty. Need I say more?
Baloney. Bush is up 7 in one and 5 in another.
Yes we are getting uneasy. I have NEVER owned a gun in my life but if Kerry is elected, I will SERIOUSLY consider buying one! I WILL PROTECT MY FAMILY!
"Those Survey USA polls were taken on Sat, Sun, and Mon. Mostly a weekend poll and it was right in the middle of the post-debate frenzy. Assuming no more bounce for lurch, I think we can add a few points to the bush lead in MO, and maybe he has a 2-3 point lead in Ohio. I think some good economic numbers on Friday will really help Bush in the Midwest."
Well, like I said, I just report the numbers as they come, I can't see the future or extrapolate possible polling results that don't actually exist.
Here's a meaningless poll that took place yesterday. My son's 2nd grade class was asked to write down for who they would vote. The numbers were great, 20 - 2 in favor of Bush. As they say, out of the mouths of babes. It's just too bad that we have to wait another 10 to 11 years for this class to vote.
"The problem I have with people who are relentlessly negative, but view themselves as being "realistic", is that pessimism is a contagion that spreads faster, and lasts longer, than its antidotes: optimism, perseverance and confidence. Some of us aren't great FDR fans around here, but somehow, "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself" seems a better call to arms for this election (which will thankfully be over in 3 1/2 short weeks) than the Baby Seal/Chicken Little call to hit the panic button."
I guess there's no pleasin' everybody! Funny, and I thought for the last month the daily polling updates would have been viewed as TOO optimistic since so much good news was coming down the line. Now, a little bad news pops up, which may reverse itself next week, and suddenly I'm Chicken Little hitting the panic button! Oh well, if I get it from both sides, I must be doing something right....
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