Numerical Analysis: Newsweek polls - March to October, 2004.

Newsweek - PR Newswire release ^ | October 3rd, 2004 | dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last seven Newsweek/PSRAI presidential preference polls, including the September 30 - October 2, 2004 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Newsweek/PSRAI poll via PRnewswire links. Also included is a re-weighting of the Newsweek/PSRAI polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results, for comparison purposes only.

[dvwjr]

No, the "Adjusted Numbers" to the right hand side of the table reflect the Newsweek internals normalized with the year 2000 VNS exit poll R/D/I percentages. This (or a variation) is what is done by some polls such as Zogby to reflect what they belive to be the more accurate result. It was done just to show how the Newsweek/PSRAI polls could be re-interpreted by another methodology.

Look to Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post and CBS News as some of the better polls.


dvwjr

[dvwjr]

The Newsweek/PSRAI published internals do not change, the re-weighting of the final results by using the year 2000 VNS exit poll R/D/I splits was done just to allow the comparison to a Zogby-type methodology. The normalization of the seven Newsweek/PSRAI just allows one to play 'what-if' as do some polling organizations.


dvwjr

[John_7Diamonds]

What it means is that there are no undecideds.

John

[BushisTheMan]

Just a rhetorical question:

Why when Bush is leading, no one mentions the polls. However, when Kerry does moderately well in the debate, the poll numbers start swinging his way slightly and the OLD MEDIA reports it night after night?

[dvwjr]

That old song went:

"Accentuate the postitive, eliminate the negative..."



dvwjr