Posted on 10/01/2004 4:26:45 PM PDT by Mike10542
I usually check out the DU website to see what they are talking about. One thing I keep on seeing is an election model that one of the idiots there posts. It always has Kerry in the lead, with a 85% win porbability. Can someone please explain to me this model and hopefully debunk it for me. Thanks.
It's been debunked about once a week on Free Republic. Check the older posts.
Well, they are liberals therefore they lie. Nuff said.
They count the dead voters.
... many times.
thats because 185% of the registered voters in this nation will vote for him....
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/
I have no idea who runs the thing.
It shows three different predictions, two based on national polls, one based purely on state polls.
One of the methods using national polls gives Bush a 99.5% chance of winning the election. That's the one that uses a composite of all the 18 recent poll orgs.
Then there is another national model where he cherry picks the "independent" polls, that one gives Kerry 61.6% chance of winning. Think Zogby.
For the state by state polls, his result looks pretty goofy. He assumes Kerry gets 60% of the undecided vote, I think that's what gives Kerry an 85% chance of victory.
One of the most respected predictors of election said Bush would win by 3.7%. Of course the voters could easily prove him very wrong one way or the other.
I just noticed he "weights" state polls. Who knows what he is doing.
I thinking they were actually polling the DUmmies themselves and 85% thought that Kerry would win. The other 15% were voting for Gore in the hopes that they could still win the 2000 elections in Florida.
It's simple... the voices in his head tell him that Kerry has a 45% chance of winning, so he adds 40% to that and comes up with 85%. Nothing to it.
It's the glue he uses to build his model. Not much ventilation in Mom's basement.
what, no international polls included? how unilateral
and wrong!
Not even worth looking into. Not worth your time and mine. Better predictors are market-based or economics-based models.
85%!!!???? Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!
I think that the only president who came close to those kind of numbers was George Washington. Certainly, in the past century, NO candidate has posted anything close to those numbers.
85% is not only wishful thinking, it is a testament to how delusional liberals are.
Dunno how he can arrive at 85% probability with Bush
leading in polls......but I would like to have a part
of what he is smoking LOL.
No one should give a damn about anything over at "that site"!
Do you give serious attention to the blatherings of the rambling, homeless drunk you pass every day on your way to work? NO!
he gives all 50/50 states to Kerry
Latest Tripias Poll Amalgam;
Bush: 324 Electoral Votes (195 likely, 129 uncertain)
Kerry: 210 Electoral Votes (125 likely, 85 uncertain)
http://www.tripias.com/state/index.html?NaderToggle=Nader_Only&SampleToggle=Likely_Only&StartDateMonth=09&StartDateDay=02&EndDateMonth=10&EndDateDay=01&Zogby_Interactive=1
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