Posted on 10/01/2004 3:27:46 PM PDT by Ironclad
Currency USD
Bush to win election
Session lo/hi 61.6 - 66.4; Life lo/hi 49.0 - 75.0; Previous Close 64.5; Open Price 64.0; Last Price 64.0; Today's Volume 8219; Total Volume 572284
Kerry to win election
Currency USD: Session lo/hi 34.1 - 36.4; Life lo/hi 28.3 - 50.5; Previous Close 35.5; Open Price 36.3; Last Price 36.2; Today's Volume 1401; Total Volume 20980
Kerry opened at 36.3, actually traded down to 34.1, and his highest trade today was 36.4 today. Currently trading at 36.2.
There's certainly no sign today of a problem for GW insofar as the free market is concerned. It looks to me like the market consensus is that the debate was a draw.
The Iowa markets show a drop in Bush's odds from about 67 to 62 since the debates.
And gold closed at 419.10. Wonder WHO is monkeying with it? Or maybe it's because of the price of oil.
Can you sell short on Sportstrade?
A drop was entirely predictable to anyone who follows market action... traders bid Bush up towards 70, anticipating a strong debate victory. I figure he'll settle back into the range he was prior to the pre-debate buying spree.
Look at the TradeSports|com graph for the contract. The debate DID knock off a few probability points and they haven't been restored.
yeah not good and Bush dropped from about 72-74 in the last 3 days or so.
Short trade? You betcha. I made $500 on Stanford v USC - 21.5 last weekend doing just that.
You can either go long Kerry at sportstrade.com, or short Bush. I can't imagine the market lets any arbitrage opportunities arise, so it should be the same trade. I haven't figured out why the only offer one side of a proposition sometimes, and offer both sides on other occassions.
Bush dropped steadily over the past two weeks, I think precisely because the market was worried about the debates. Bush peaked and levelled off in the low 70s, and the market perceived that only bad things could happen to him in the debates. The nice thing about markets is that they price this sort of thing in advance. I suspect Bush's prospects for at least one, and maybe more, bad debates were taken into account, rendering the 6-7 point discount we've seen in the last fortnight.
HOWEVER, you can get VERY good arbs fr/time to time between the TS Popular Vote wta and the IEM contract (don't try this with TSBush, that's an electoral vote contract).
Comcast? I couldn't find any option information on them in Yahoo.
OK, you win. I'm confused (g!).
Thought we were talking about arb opportunities on Tradesports (which I always abbrev. as TS).
I'm looking at your tag line.
CCZ is the ticker symbol for December 2004 NYBOT Cocoa.
(I knew this thread would make sense sooner or later ... heh heh heh)
Look, probably everyone on this thread thinks there's political ammo that COULD be used in debate boy Kerry's wanting to:
1) supply Iran with uranium (a la Carter-Clinton-Albright/North Korea)
2) global test (do intellectually/morally superior France, Germany and the U.N. approve of us?), and
3) treat a COOPERATING Red China as irrelevant in North Korean negotiations (oh yeah, riiiight).
Nevertheless, the pre-debate Bush contract price embodied certain expectations for GW's debate performance, expectations that clearly were NOT FULFILLED. So far as I've read, that's all anyone is claiming here. Realism serves our cause better than a Smilely Face.
What does this mean ? I dont understand how this works. Enlighten me please ?
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