WRAL Poll: Race For U.S. Senate Almost Dead Heat [Bowles 45, Burr 44]

WRAL ^ | 9/30/2004 | WRAL.com

[JohnnyZ]

But weren't two polls released in the last week showing Bowles up by like 8%-10%?

Supposedly there a GOP-sponsored poll by POS that also shows 45-44 Bowles; it's listed on RealClearPolitics.

The SurveyUSA polls (showed +10 Bowles a few weeks ago but also showed Bush only +4) jump around a lot, as you know, and the Research2000 poll showed Bowles up 9 but Bush only up 6 and Ballantine trailing badly ~ seems like a Dem-friendly sample.

Mason-Dixon is the most accurate and shows Bush up 9%, which makes sense.

Also Burr sent out an email before this Mason-Dixon poll saying the race was 1-4 points in Bowles' favor.

[Kahuna]

That was the Argus poll and has always skewed left. Other polls show Thune with a +3 advantage. Look for W to land in Souix Falls around October 29th. Wanna bet?

[Phantom Lord]

Wasn't Burr down by as much as 12 points just over a week ago?

There seems to be a massive shift to the GOP at all levels and in all races.

[no1.tarhill]

Burr just started running TV ads showing Boyles with "his old friend Clinton". Trust me that is a good strategy in the ole North State!

Luv' it!

[Howlin]

I'm not sure.

[Cableguy]

Interesting development. Negative ads to work well.

[TitansAFC]

My gut feeling is that Thune is barely behind, but definitely has a shot.

This news about Burr closing the gap is HUGE; NC is the best chance the Dems have of holding one of their five Southern Senate seats except for Louisiana, which is basically unwinnable for Republicans because of the runoff rule. Florida will be a tough pickup, but is very doable. SC and GA are definite pickups. Problems for Republicans are OK, AK, the automatic loss here in IL, and CO. I think the turnout will save OK and CO, but AK is a state with a small population and a much smaller voting population. Polls in really small states tend to be quite accurate, and Murkowski is consistently behind in about all of them. The nepotism thing is KILLING the GOP in Republican-heavy Alaska.

I think Repubs lose IL and AK, pick-up SC, FL, GA, and one of SD/NC/LA. A net gain of +2 for the GOP. Makes the mid-term hard for the Dems, too, because they will need to pick-up +4 to gain control of the Senate again. Not likely.

[southernnorthcarolina]

Good news, indeed.

The GOP ran 13% ahead of its national numbers in North Carolina in the Presidential elections of 1996 and 2000. With Edwards on the Dem ticket, it might be asking a bit much to match that performance, but a differential of 8 to 10% seems to me to be doable, and that could be enough to pull Burr in -- maybe Ballantine, too, in the gubernatorial race. Especially if that 8 to 10% differential is on top of a national margin of a few percentage points in President Bush's favor.

Coattails are important. Remember Ronald Reagan pulling John East (let's face it, a weak candidate) through in 1980; remember G.H.W. Bush, even as he lost his re-election bid, pulling Lauch Faircloth (another weak candidate) through in 1992. No GOP Senate candidate in North Carolina has lost in a Presidential election year since 1968.

[TommyDale]

Thanks for some good news. If the President can get in here a time or two and make some appearances on Burr's behalf (and I'm sure he will) Burr stands to win this thing.

[Brilliant]

The Republicans are going to control the Congress and the White House. I don't know why North Carolina would want to be represented by a liberal Democrat. He'd spend all his time merely trying to block the Republicans. He'd not get anything done.

[Cowgirl]

They probably haven't factored in the rats voter fraud
strategy. When you're dealing with scum you have to
work twice as hard to win.

[jimfree]

Great news. Where do I go to donate and send this election home?

[jimfree]

Great news. Where do I go to donate and send this election home?

[Constitution Day]

BURR *WILL* FORGE AHEAD.

Take it to the bank, my FRiend.

[Constitution Day]

Great news. Where do I go to donate and send this election home?

Contribute to the Richard Burr Campaign

If you have any problems, please FRmail me.

[Kuksool]

Yahoo! Go Burr!

[Clintonfatigued]

This is encouraging. But a few days ago, I saw a poll in USA Today which showed Bowles leading by 49% to 40%. I think that Bowles is still the slight favorite.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is encouraging. But a few days ago, I saw a poll in USA Today which showed Bowles leading by 49% to 40%. I think that Bowles is still the slight favorite.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I think we could also add the mother of them all, the very popular Jim Hunt losing to Jesse Helms in the 1984 Reagan landslide. If Hunt couldn't do it, Bowles would have even less of a chance.

[Constitution Day]

NC *Ping*

Please FRmail Constitution Day, TaxRelief OR Helms if you want to be added to or removed from this North Carolina ping list.