Posted on 09/29/2004 9:33:51 PM PDT by neverdem
Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most comprehensive computer analysis done so far.
By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says the study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles from the core would be nearly 20 percent more intense.
Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global warming. But this study is particularly significant, independent experts said, because it used half a dozen computer simulations of global climate, devised by separate groups at institutions around the world. The long-term trends it identifies are independent of the normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have been on display in recent decades.
The study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of Climate and can be found at www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf.
The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away the most comprehensive effort" to assess the question using powerful computer simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has seen the paper but did not work on it. About the link between the warming of tropical oceans and storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."
Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was too soon to know whether hurricanes would form more or less frequently in a warmer world. Even as seas warm, for example, accelerating high-level winds can shred the towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.
But the authors said that even if the number of storms simply stayed the same, the increased intensity would substantially increase their potential for destruction.
Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global warming would lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a point underlined at the United Nations this week by leaders of several small island nations, who pleaded for more attention to the potential for devastation from tidal surges.
The new study used four climate centers' mathematical approximations of the physics by which ocean heat fuels tropical storms.
With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans and atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results were the same: more powerful storms and more rainfall, said Robert Tuleya, one of the paper's two authors. He is a hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas R. Knutson of the Princeton laboratory.
Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual hurricanes using a more powerful version of the same supercomputer simulations that generates Commerce Department forecasts of the tracks and behavior of real hurricanes.
Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State University who was among the first to predict the recent surge in Atlantic storm activity, said the new study was a significant step in examining the impacts of a warmer future.
But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the extraordinary complexity of the oceans and atmosphere made any scientific progress "baby steps toward a final answer."
My mother-in-law lives in a low lying part of Florida, where she risks being swept out to sea.
I've got no argument with global warming.
it intrigues me that these scientists couldnt possibly know that global warming is real, but the scientists that dont believe it ARE right?
how are you all so sure?
as far as im concerned, its undecided. maybe its happening, maybe it isnt. those of you that claim to know foir sure that it isnt are as foolish as those who believe it IS for certain.
Since Global Warming is junkscience, how do you explain the hurricanes?
HEHEHEE...they can always come up with something. In the 60's the alarm was for a new ice age.
The premise of the article itself is sound.
Not according to this article from Crosswalk.com:
Environmentalists Blame East Coast Hurricane on 'Global Warming'
Marc Morano
Senior Staff Writer
(CNSNews.com) - As Hurricane Isabel bears down on the East Coast, environmentalists in Washington, D.C., are linking the caprice of Mother Nature to global warming.
"Weather-related disasters are occurring with ever-greater intensity and frequency around the world," stated a press release from the environmental group Worldwatch Institute on Wednesday.
Citing "clear connections" that global warming and Hurricane Isabel are inter-related, Worldwatch stated, "Heat in the atmosphere is the fuel that leads to stormy weather, and meteorological studies indicate that rising temperatures will tend to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme storms, particularly the violent thunderstorms that occur in some parts of the world."
But climatologist Patrick J. Michaels, a skeptic of what he terms "alarmist" global warming claims, refuted any attempt to link potential climate change to Hurricane Isabel.
"There is absolutely no evidence for an increase in frequency or severity of hurricanes worldwide and in the Atlantic basin," Michaels told CNSNew.com.
Michaels, who is the author of the book Satanic Gasses: Clearing the Air About Global Warming and an environmental sciences professor at the University of Virginia, believes the Worldwatch Institute should have known better than to send out a press release attempting to link global warming with a present-day hurricane.
"It is a mystery that Worldwatch would seize upon a weak Category 2 hurricane, which is a common storm, knowing full well that there had also been no increases in the frequency or severity of hurricanes," Michaels said. As the storm bore down on the Virginia, Maryland area Thursday, it was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, the least dangerous of five categories.
This is not the first time environmentalists have sought to link present-day weather calamities to their belief in global warming. In February, environmentalists claimed the record-breaking Northeast blizzard was "consistent" with global warming, and last year, they blamed the spread of the West Nile Virus on global warming. Some environmentalists have even warned that global warming could trigger the next ice age.
Regarding hurricanes, Worldwatch stated, "Rising sea levels, a certain result of global warming, will exacerbate the coastal flooding that is one of the most damaging impacts of hurricanes."
But Michaels believes that "alarmist" claims of human-caused global warming are unfounded.
"The [climate] science is settled in a very non-alarmist way," explained Michaels, who is also a senior fellow in environmental studies with the libertarian Cato Institute.
Instead of being concerned about potential climate change, people should "worry about something that is really a serious problem," Michaels added.
Michaels sees no link to present-day hurricanes and any potential increase in the earth's temperature.
"Within the Atlantic basin, maximum winds and hurricanes have declined significantly in the last 50 years," Michaels said.
"Worldwatch could have found this out by reading the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report," Michaels added.
Michaels disputed Worldwatch's contention that any potential increase in world temperatures would increase the intensity of future storms.
"There is no evidence that the frequency or severity of hurricanes is related to the amount of warm ocean water there is on the planet. If it were, hurricanes would erupt virtually continuously in the tropics," Michaels countered.
'Heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires'
Worldwatch warned that unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut through international treaties like the Kyoto Protocol, the earth could see dire consequences from the warming of the planet.
"There will be more frequent and intense heat waves, floods, droughts and wildfires. The numbers and ranges of agricultural pests will likely increase, while growing ranges for many crops will shift," the green groups said.
According to Worldwatch, "Most scientists agree that global warming is real." The group also warns that scientists believe "climate change is now occurring far faster than ever before in recorded history."
'Don't have a leg to stand on'
S. Fred Singer, president of the Virginia-based Science Environmental Policy Project, rejects that assertion.
"There is dispute on [climate science]. The surface data show some warming, the satellite data do not, and that matter has not yet been resolved. So there is certainly no agreement on whether there is warming or not," Singer told CNSNews.com.
Singer believes that environmentalists "don't have a leg to stand on" when they try to blame hurricanes on what they call global warming.
[The environmentalists] are always trying to make a big deal; they are using Hurricane Isabel as a peg," Singer said.
Barotropic (tropical) systems do not derive their energy from temperature differences at all, but simply derive energy from warm water.
You also attempt to grossly overstate the preponderance of barotropic cyclonal influence on all tornadoes and hurricanes that affect the US. Given that this is a false and an untenable requirement, your absolutist assertions collapse under their own weight.
The irony of your self referential gibe about 'self-appointed experts', in and of itself, would dissuade a sufficiently cognizant individual from hectoring me further.
Unfortunately for you, the historical climatic record bears out my hypothesis and not yours since it shows that both hurricanes and tornadoes decrease in intensity and occurrence when polar and equatorial average temperature differences decrease.
Given this, I request that you desist from further harassing me. Produce some cites to back up your position, or hold your peace.
how do you explain the 4 hurricanes that hit, what was it, louisiana 120 or so years ago?
This has been debunked on tech central station:
http://www.techcentralstation.com/091404D.html
Hopefully junkscience.com will do a write up on it as well.
Al gore giving a speech on the evils of global warming on the coldest day in NYC history was caused by global warming too.
You got it!
summer of the shark! summer of the shark!
Coldest summer on record here in Tennessee and during all these recent Hurricanes....I saw plenty of weather experts saying it hadn't shite to do with "global warming" that in reality, the worldwide incidence of hurricanes was down but that we were having a banner year in the mid Atlantic.
The NYT is a joke on all matters.
that is true of any science today that has political implications....and I mean any and all...no exceptions.
I'm not trying to explain the hurricanes, but there are other comments on this thread that do.
Recent trends in global warming, at least up until this summer for the lower 48 states, could be a new trend or it could be a repeat of an old cycle. The theory that this is new and caused by human activity generating greenhous gases is just a theory. While it is a plausible theory, it ignores what the sun has been doing. Satellites have measured increased solar radiation since the late 1970s. Increased sunspot activity has occured over the last decade.
I happened to stumble on these websites one day when I was surfing around to find out info about hurricanes:
http://members.austarmetro.com.au/~hubbca/weather.htm
http://www.cheniere.org/video/sovietweathervideo.html
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/H/HURRICANE_CYCLE?SITE=FLPAP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Seems kinda scarey, if this is true.
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