Posted on 09/29/2004 2:45:47 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
LANSING -- Heading into their first debate Thursday, neither President Bush nor U.S. Sen. John Kerry has made a convincing argument for Michigan voters despite dozens of appearances and millions in TV ad spending.
A poll released Tuesday by Marketing Resource Group of Lansing finds Kerry and Bush essentially tied. The 45-43 percent Kerry lead is within the poll's 4 percent margin of error.
The survey mirrors a Sept. 15-19 poll by the Lansing firm EPIC-MRA that showed Kerry's lead also within the margin of error.
Paul King, pollster for Marketing Resource Group, said the data show neither candidate has completed the sale yet with the election less than five weeks away.
"You don't see a groundswell of support for either," he said. "That shows the support for either side may be a mile wide and an inch thick."
Broken down by region, the MRG poll saw neither candidate breaking 50 percent in any part of the state. Bush is leading Kerry 47-40 percent in West Michigan despite repeated stops in the region from Traverse City to Niles since May. Likewise Kerry is leading Bush by 49-40 percent in metropolitan Detroit, a traditional Democratic stronghold.
MRG had independent candidate Ralph Nader with 1 percent of the vote; EPIC showed him with 2 percent.
Both the MRG and EPIC polls show Bush and Kerry essentially tied in the pivotal I-75 corridor that includes Flint, Saginaw and Bay City.
Both polls, however, show a closer race in Michigan than a Sept. 17-21 survey by American Research Group, a national firm polling all 50 states. The Michigan polling showed Kerry with a 48-40 percent advantage, with a 4 percent margin of error.
Also in Tuesday's MRG polls, ballot issues that would require voter approval for expanded gaming and a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage both have the support of more than 60 percent of those surveyed.
Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, the political newsletter that commissioned the MRG poll, said given Michigan's job loss in the past four years, Kerry should be "killing" Bush at this point.
Ed Sarpolus of EPIC-MRA blames an ineffective campaign that has yet to connect with Michigan voters. While Bush's visits to smaller enclaves have drawn considerable press coverage, Kerry hasn't had a campaign rally in Michigan since Aug. 2. He did address the Detroit Economic Club on Sept. 15.
In the MRG poll, most voters listed the economy and health care as their top concerns. Iraq and terrorism were far down the list. By focusing his campaign on Bush's handling of Iraq and terrorism, Sarpolus said Kerry has yet to address the economic concerns of Michigan voters.
In the MRG poll, just 44 percent approved of Bush's job performance and 56 percent believed the country was on the wrong track. In the EPIC poll, 43 percent rated Bush's job performance as excellent or good.
Kerry isn't focusing "on things that people really care about," Sarpolus said.
"What he has to do is talk about (economic) issues and what his solutions are," Sarpolus said. "People want change, but Kerry hasn't proposed the change that people want."
Rodell Mollineau, Kerry's Michigan spokesman, said, "We know what we need to do, energize our base, make sure they go to the polls and reach out to independents and moderates who are dissatisfied with Bush's leadership."
Bush pollster Matthew Dowd said the onus is on Kerry, because without Michigan he can't win the election. Bush won in 2000 without Michigan.
Dowd said Bush's strength in economically troubled Michigan is that voters "have a clear sense of what the president wants to do. The question is what leader do they want to trust?"
"Whether or not they agree with (Bush) on every issue, they trust him as a leader," he said.
Contact Peter Luke at (517) 487-8888 or e-mail him at pluke@boothnewspapers.com.
If Bush wins Michigan, stick a fork in him...
Kerry.
Exactly stick a fork in Kerry if Bush wins Michigan! LOL
Maybe we need to send in Tehrezzah to help them make up their minds.
Hey, "It's just one state!"
Bush - 50%
Kerry - 47%
Nader - 2 to 3% (protest votes mostly)
Stick a BIG FORK in Kerry and through him onto the trash heap of history!
He's not only "done", he's BURNED!
Sounds good to me!
Make that Kerry 48%!
You type FAST!
Too early in the morning!
No matter who wins, the next four years are going to be tough for Michigan. The auto industry is going into a funk. We are just coming off of an auto buying binge, and consumers who just bought new cars aren't going to want to buy yet again. Moreover, the cost of owning a car is going up fast. The price of gas is skyrocketing, as are interest rates and manufacturing costs. The price of steel has shot up, electricity and oil are increasing, and health insurance costs are eating into the bottom line.
I expect a lot of layoffs in the auto industry over the next 4 years no matter who gets elected. The Democratic icon, Jennifer Granholm, had better get ready. She's going to have a lot of explaining to do.
Just pulled that one out of thin air, didn't you?
2000 was an exception; undecideds will likely break against the incumbent.
I agree with you. For some reason a group of folks here insist on spreading the opposite.
I'm always queasy when it comes to these cannibalistic references.
I'll repeat my earlier offer. If anyone is interested in getting a Bush/Cheney bumper sticker, at no charge, simply FReepmail with your snail mail address. Your personal info will not be provided to anyone.
Yes (it was floating in the "thin air" between your ears)!
I wonder if Granholm's hand-wringing cuts and games she's playing (with the cooperation of both parties in the capitol) is eroding Democrat support here in Michigan. She committed a HUGE blunder by catering to Detroit and unions, and cost the state millions in private educational dollars when she backed out of a charter school deal at the last minute. She's slashed state services and employees down to the bare bones, has remaining employees picking up the slack AND being forced to work a 38 hour work week. They have to bank that 2 hours or take it unpaid.
The recent tax shift made huge headlines in all the major papers (the Freep, News, Oakland Press) because its just a sleight of hand trick to boost state coffers.
People are finally seeing the Canadian Trash for what she is and they're not liking it.
Yup. I lived in Michigan for 20 years--grew up there. The most fundamental driving force in Michigan politics is the auto industry. If the industry is in a funk, the governor is going to get the blame--it's as simple as that.
Granholm has not done much to help the industry. Her concern has been for the unions. Of course, the unions do better if the industry does better, but it doesn't follow that the industry does better if the unions do better. Granholm was elected on the premise that she was going to fix the Michigan economy. If it goes into the toilet (again), she's not going to have much of an excuse, and no one is going to have much of a reason to vote for her.
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