In St. Louis, margin of victory counts

STLtoday.com ^ | 9-27-04 | Jo Mannies

[FairWitness]

In this year's presidential election, there's no mystery about which candidate will carry the city of St. Louis.

The only unknown is how many city Democrats will show up at the polls. It's the volume that counts.

A huge St. Louis margin for Democratic Sen. John Kerry - say, an edge of 90,000 votes or more - could help him eke out a win in Missouri, political experts say. If the city's overwhelmingly Democratic turnout is low, he's likely toast.

The Republican dream is to keep Kerry's margin below 70,000 votes.

The Democratic need for a large city turnout is behind several groups' efforts to register new voters. City election officials are predicting that the rolls will be over 200,000 by Election Day; an increase of more than 15,000 since spring.

But those new registrations are pointless if the people don't turn out. And with five weeks to go, some Democratic activists privately worry that Kerry is not generating the enthusiasm he needs from city voters, especially among two key city constituencies: African-Americans and Catholics.

< snip >

But that's (that blacks will turn out "big") not necessarily the word on the street. "I hear a lot of people say they're not going to vote because they don't have a good candidate to vote for," said Ruth Vincent, 48, as she left the old Sears building, a complex of shops and agencies on North Kingshighway.

< snip >

Meanwhile, he (Kerry) faces a potentially daunting roadblock when it comes to wooing city Catholics: Archbishop Raymond Burke.

Burke is due to send out a pastoral letter this week to address the continuing controversy over his conflicting comments about Kerry, a Catholic who supports abortion rights.

Rest of article

[FairWitness]

The Post-Dispatch hopes that all the St. Louis Democrats will vote early, and late, and often. I'm volunteering for the Republican phone banks, hoping to help offset the Democrat push.

[pabianice]

Maybe the crooks running St. Louis can beat the 2000 Chicago Democrat turnout of 103%...!

[not2worry]

It all depends, IMHO, how hard the City Dems want to push for the vote this year. Mayor Slay is white so I don't know how much influence he will have on the black community.
JD Banks is dead and Clay, Jr. seems to be more interested in lining his own pockets than that of the Dems. Most of the black Dems will follow Jackson's mantra, which leads me to believe it will up to those who "Vote and Vote Often" to win the CITY OF ST. LOUIS.

The Republicans need to absolutely be represented at the polls. In the last Presidential Election there was far too much hanky-panky with Gephardt, the Judges and the Polls.

[Jack Black]

What about posting Kerry: Billionaire: Wind Surfer posters around black neighborhoods?

[7thOF7th]

I live in downtown St. Louis and I just want to say that a substantial shift in political ideology has occurred. Many new residents in the new loft district of Washington Ave show overwhelming support for "W". These are citizens that work hard and earn a living, the vagrants and sadomasochist liberals are the minority. They won't even know the right day to show up to vote.

[FairWitness]

Maybe the crooks running St. Louis can beat the 2000 Chicago Democrat turnout of 103%...!

They will probably follow the usual tactic of waiting for the rest of the state to report their totals, and then "find" enough votes to swing the state.

[FairWitness]

I live in downtown St. Louis and I just want to say that a substantial shift in political ideology has occurred. Many new residents in the new loft district of Washington Ave show overwhelming support for "W".

Sounds encouraging. I hope there are enough to make a difference.

[SCALEMAN]

Your suggestion sounds good but it requires an ability to read or be cognizant of what their candidate actually looks like.

I would bet money that given four pictures of males fully 90% of the Black voters in St. Louis couldn't pick Kerry out.