Posted on 09/27/2004 12:48:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
OLYMPIA — John Kerry, struggling for a foothold in his national campaign for president, is having better luck in Washington state.
Most recent polls show the Massachusetts senator in good shape to extend the Democrats' string of victories here and suggest that he has the two key issues on his side: concern over the economy and the war in Iraq.
But backers of President Bush still predict a tight finish. They also tout a poll that shows the matchup to be a dead heat.
"I believe the Republicans are competitive in Washington state," says state GOP Chairman Chris Vance. "I can't sit here and predict victory, but I know it is very, very close. It will turn on what happens in the next six weeks. And it will depend on turnout."
Bush campaign spokeswoman Leah Yoon says the president intends to carry Washington and has committed an unprecedented amount of money, ads and staff members to the state. About 30,000 volunteers are knocking on doors and calling their neighbors, she said.
But state Democratic Party Chairman Paul Berendt said experts have taken Washington off the national watch list of battleground states.
"I feel very confident we will carry the state for John Kerry," he said. "We were only marginally a battleground state to begin with."
Washington, which hasn't voted Republican for president since 1984, gave Democrat Al Gore a 5.6 percentage-point victory margin in the state.
"We're in good shape because George W. Bush isn't the kind of politician the people of Washington like," Berendt said. "They don't like his cowboy politics, this evangelical edge he has. John Kerry is front and center on issues we care about."
Sam Rodriguez, state Kerry-campaign director, said, "We've been surging. ... To use a sports analogy, John Kerry has come back, counterpunching, and now the Bush-Cheney people are on the ropes and it's almost the last round."
A poll of 406 registered Washington voters commissioned by The Columbian newspaper of Vancouver showed a 51 percent to 42 percent lead for Kerry. A companion survey sponsored by The Columbian, The Herald of Everett, The News Tribune of Tacoma and The Spokesman-Review of Spokane uncovered some of the demographics and issues that are helping him.
The poll was conducted Sept. 17 through last Monday by Ipsos-Public Affairs, a division of the global survey-research firm Ipsos, which does polling for The Associated Press. Margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Pollsters found that voters had two equally pressing issues on their minds — the economy and jobs, and the war in Iraq. Each was mentioned by 29 percent as the most important issue in determining a presidential pick.
Kerry is pushing hard on both issues, as is the president, but the Democrat benefits more.
The Washington state poll showed most respondents think it was a mistake to go to war — 53 percent versus 44 percent.
The poll also showed that just 19 percent think the economy in their area is better than it was four years ago when Bush took office. Eighty percent said the local economy is either worse (47 percent) or the same (33 percent). Asked about their own family, 31 percent said they're better off, 25 percent worse and 44 percent about the same.
"The top two issues are benefiting Kerry," said Thom Riehle, president of the Washington, D.C.-based polling company. "Among those who said it was the economy and jobs, Kerry leads 64 to 36 and for those who picked the war, Kerry leads 65-29."
The Ipsos poll showed Kerry leading among both women and men, with a 54-40 advantage among female voters. Men split 48 percent for Kerry and 45 percent for the president.
Kerry led Bush by more than 2 to 1 in King County, 67 percent to 28 percent, and had a narrow lead in the rest of Puget Sound country. Bush had a big edge in the rest of Western Washington and in Eastern Washington.
Some other pollsters corroborated the Ipsos levels, including the Elway Poll, which had Kerry ahead 52-38. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll earlier in the month had it 52-44.
The Bush camp takes comfort in two new Republican polls that portray the race as a dead heat. Portland pollster Bob Moore had Kerry at 48 percent and Bush at 46 percent. On Friday, the Atlanta-based Strategic Vision poll had Kerry 46, Bush 45 and independent Ralph Nader 2.
I haven't seen anything that stated that Washington was in play.
So they're even worried that kerry might lose Washington?? Har-de-har-har.
Read it and see what fun their having with the numbers. One example:
***.....Pollsters found that voters had two equally pressing issues on their minds — the economy and jobs, and the war in Iraq. Each was mentioned by 29 percent as the most important issue in determining a presidential pick.
.... "Among those who said it was the economy and jobs, Kerry leads 64 to 36 and for those who picked the war, Kerry leads 65-29."
So, if I'm reading this right, 64% of 29% is a solid lock for Kerry.
their = they're
If they think this is doing well, they must be sweating.
I would be wonderful if Bush got a mandate - a landslide.
The message sent to terrorists and our critics around the world would be loud and clear.
Can we get rid of Patty Murray also?
I will be very happy when Massachusetts becomes a Battleground State(well its actually a commonwealth),then I can be certain that the margin nationally is so solid for Bush that the Dems cant steal it with their myriad frauds.
Patty "just a mom in tennis shoes" Murry?
Maybe if Bush takes Washington, voters will get a better sense of their clout.
I am sure Karl Rove is working on it!
Seattle is for Kerry??? OMG ain't that about like saying LA or SF is for Kerry? go figure
Read further. Never depend on a headline.
I read it all and the fact of the matter has always been that the populastion center of Washington is Seattle and the surrounding LIBERAL burbs....The conservative ag sector hasn't won one there in ages
The whole game. Seattle is so full of commies, the sensible people elsewhere can't prevail.
I would be great if Washington STATE went for Bush!
Yes they can! AND not everyone in Seattle is a commie - just a majority. ;^)
A landlside is hard to imagine.
If Bush wins anything over 50% of the vote, around 325-350 EVs, gets a GOP Congress of 54-45-1 or 55-44-1, and a House with 235 GOPers, I say we declare a mandate and move forward. ;-)
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