Regards, Ivan
Posted on 09/25/2004 4:52:14 PM PDT by MadIvan
You can read lots of analysis of why John Kerry is behind in the presidential race, but here’s a statistic that hasn’t won as much attention as it should. In 2000, George W Bush had an 11-point advantage among men and Al Gore had an 11-point margin among women. Hence the stand-off.
This year, in most polls, Bush still has an 11-point lead among men; but Kerry has sunk to a 4-point lead among women. In one of the most recent polls, the situation is even worse for Kerry. In a CBS/New York Times survey, the president was actually leading among women 48% to 43%.
The margin of difference among married women was even more striking, with Bush winning 59% to Kerry’s 32%. If any of this holds steady for the next five weeks, Kerry doesn’t have a prayer in November.
But why? President Bush has many characteristics that have in the past put women off. He’s a war president, his party has become very socially conservative, his rhetoric has verged on the Schwarzeneggerian. His party is committed to ending abortion. The troubled economy in many swing states, together with rising costs for healthcare premiums and job insecurity, should give Kerry a big lead among women.
The answer, oddly enough, is almost certainly 9/11. Historically, women have tended to vote for anti-war candidates. But again historically, most American wars have been fought abroad with no sense of danger in the homeland.
The mass murder in New York made it seem, for the first time, that America was vulnerable, that women’s children and families depended on a warrior president for their security.
Hence the wider and wider gap between married and single women. Married women with children are by far the most pro-Bush female demographic. The gap seems to have increased even more dramatically after the massacre of the schoolchildren in Beslan.
“I do worry about safety,” one Ohio mother told The Washington Post last week. “I feel like Bush would make the decisions necessary and spend the money to keep us safe. A possible terrorist attack scares the heck out of me. I’d rather do without and have this taken care of.”
So we have gone from the elusive “soccer moms” as a key polling demographic to the “security moms” — the new swing voter pushing many marginal states Bush’s way. Suddenly this security issue has trumped the conventional economic and household concerns.
Job security, childcare, legal abortion: all these are dispensable if you’re vulnerable to being exterminated by an Al-Qaeda chemical weapon. And there’s an interesting geographical dynamic here as well. Men in big cities tend to be more worried about security than men in the suburbs or rural areas, according to some recent studies. Women are concerned equally across the country.
The maternal instinct is powerful. So a Pew Center poll recently found that women, by 19 points, thought Kerry would be better for the economy, but favoured Bush on terrorism by a 21-point margin. If you want to know why Kerry has decided to focus on Iraq and terror in his past few weeks of campaigning, these numbers will explain a great deal. Moreover, the “security moms” want a president who will fight back.
Kerry lost the bulk of his female support in August, when he failed to respond aggressively enough to the smears about his war medals. Women looked at a candidate who couldn’t defend himself and wondered if he’d be able to defend their children. In contrast, Bush has a reputation for fighting back.
Kerry is busy trying to repair the damage. He has been appearing on daytime talk shows and has secured the endorsement of several 9/11 widows as well as the most senior retired female general. But Bush has shrewdly countered.
In a speech to the United Nations, he invoked the spectre of a grieving mother in Beslan and constantly touts the gains for women’s rights in Afghanistan. He has a cringe-inducing slogan: “W stands for women”. Education has long been one of his issues and the convention worked hard to portray him as a devoted husband and sensitive father of two daughters.
But there’s another factor that I think has been overlooked. That’s the wife situation. Laura Bush is a canny, understated but deeply reassuring figure. She’s traditional but not supine, pretty but not overtly sexual, and brilliantly subtle in television appearances.
America is, at heart, a traditional country — especially in those states, far from the metropolitan coasts, that will decide this election. So everywhere they can, the Bush campaign rolls Laura out.
Now contrast that with Teresa Heinz Kerry, who has called some of her husband’s critics “scumbags” and has derided those who disagree with her husband’s healthcare proposals as “idiots”. Last Thursday she even said she believed the Bush administration would somehow find Osama Bin Laden before the election — the kind of paranoid rambling you’d expect from Michael Moore.
Moreover, it’s easy to understand the storybook marriage of George and Laura: hometown sweethearts, married for life. But Kerry is on his second marriage — and both to women far wealthier than he has ever been. It’s unfair and wrong to infer anything from that, and Kerry’s relationship with Teresa seems authentic and real. But you can see how it puts people off a little.
How, in some minds, these two marriages to women with millions are a little emasculating. In a testosterone-addled wartime election, that matters.
This may change, of course. In June, Kerry had the traditional Democratic 10-point lead among women. The current disparity is unnaturally large and will probably diminish, whatever Kerry does. The debates could also restore his reputation for standing his ground and facing an opponent down, as long as he doesn’t do it in the contrived fashion of Gore in 2000.
And the situation in Iraq could make Bush seem out of his depth and provide Kerry with a reassuring establishment aura.
He is, after all, the conservative candidate in this election — urging a return to traditional alliances, to a war on terror that is less contemptuous of established international norms. And in insecure times, such conservatism might appeal precisely to “security moms”.
It’s just that time is running out. And many American women, faced with Kerry, are not exactly eager for their second date.
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
Did you know that Kerry has a 20 mega point lead among hamsters and flying swift boat dogs! ;-)
On the contrary, I think gay men understand women in a way that you and I can't.
"A possible terrorist attack scares the heck out of me. I’d rather do without and have this taken care of.”
Now THIS woman gets it!!!!!!!!
I'm watching Andrew Sullivan and Chris Hitchens talking with Tim Russert.
Tim asked them both who they would support in the election. Andrew said he is going to write in McCain/Lieberman, and Chris is supporting Bush.
They were discussing the Iraq war. Tim, his usual bias self, mentioned that Kerry would begin pulling out once elected. Sullivan said that Kerry's statements about the war, show that he should not win the election.
I used to love reading Andrew Sullivan, having discovered him during the 2000 elections on Drudge. Now, he's become too much of a one issue deal. He does a good job here, even though I think he's still on Kerry's side.
You're dam* right 9-1-1 changed things for a lot of us. I know some women who don't think so, and I can't believe it. They want us out of this war, want all of our troops home, and will vote for Kerry. To them, the biggest issue is abortion rights.
MadIvan, I think Andrew confuses American women with The Queen. He doesn't quit "get" the American culture. Theoretically, women are supposed to be drawn the "bad" guy -- according to the sexperts. Ironically, the more the Dems scream that Bush is a Bad Boy... (and he wears that AF suit so nicely...) :)
I don't think that's true. Gay men may wish they understand women; but simply put; these are men who are gay -- they can dress up; they can act like women.. BUT THEY AREN'T WOMEN.
True. But the best of Laura (and that's not an easy choice!) was her appearance after Tarayza made some rather crude comment. Laura empathized, EMPATHIZED, with this egotistical, prosocialist, ultra-liberal African-American feminazi! Kindness and understanding met bitterness and snobbery. Laura was WONDERFUL.
Wow, I figured Andrew for a Kerry supporter.
Looks like he still can't bring himself to do the right thing and vote for President Bush.
He wasn't joking, was he, about McCain/Lieberman?
The nightmare that mothers across America are finding themselves having to face, is that a terror attack like what happened to that Russian school in Beslan COULD happen here.
And they need the right person in charge should the worst happen
How do you explain the success of "Will and Grace"?
You can say that again.
Let's put it this way… we like manly men and not girlie men.
Shvar-tzeh-neh-GEH-ree-an would be my guess but it's certainly a mouthful!
I, for one, like the way President Bush talks, but then, my heroes have always been cowboys.
As a woman this paragraph sums up what I think of the rest of Sullivan's reach to explain what he doesn't understand. What alliances are more traditional than the British and Australian? And what international norms that allowed Rwanda, the Taliban, Saddam, etc. etc. etc. are not to be held in contempt?
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