Replies

I respectfully disagree.

There are two kinds of surprise, strategic and tactical, which in this case translate roughly as "if" and "when." "If" is not in question; barring a revolution that throws the mullahs out of power (and preferably over a cliff), Israel and/or America will strike Iran, together or separately, under one flag or two. No-one doubts this, least of all the mullahs, and I'm sure they are building up their air defenses every day.

"When" is another question. An operation like the one described in the article is a massive undertaking in terms of planning, logistics, etc. Plans have to be made and tested, men trained, forces positioned, and so on. Much of this can be very obvious to a trained observer (and all jokes aside, we can't assume that Iran's intel people are completely incompetent), and hiding it makes things even tougher.

Can tactical surprise still be achieved? Yes! Israel is GOOD at surprises. It shouldn't be done in haste - think about the disastrous attempt to rescue the American hostages in Tehran in 1980 - but once the prep work is done, the sooner the better.

DISCLAIMER: I am not in the military, and if I'm wrong any freepers with experience in this area are cordially invited to correct me.