Posted on 09/23/2004 11:01:52 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WEST PALM BEACH, FLA. - With time running out on John Kerry, former Clinton administration operatives recently added to his campaign are touting a refreshed and reinvigorated candidate.
By using sharper rhetoric and by de-emphasizing once-feature topics such as his Vietnam War service that aides now deem less effective, Kerry is "really hitting stride and making some real strong arguments now," said Mike McCurry, a former press secretary for President Clinton, now serving Kerry's campaign.
But many of the latest polls show Kerry trailing or tied with President Bush, even in some of the key states where Kerry was ahead a month ago. With 39 days left before the election, some independent analysts have begun to doubt even a candidate with Kerry's comeback reputation.
"New momentum? They have to say that. I haven't seen any new momentum," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.
Bolstering Sabato's view was a decision by Kerry strategists this week to abandon plans for a series of television advertisements in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. Bush won those states in 2000, and polls show him favored to carry them again.
While aides pointed to at least two polls in the past week that were more favorable for Kerry's hopes, Kerry was knocked off stride again this week with a bad cold that temporarily made him lose his voice. On Thursday, Kerry scaled back his schedule, and running mate John Edwards took over at events in Ohio and Iowa.
'Time getting short' "Time is getting short for Kerry to say what he's going to do," said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
MacManus questioned the Kerry strategy of attacking Bush on ties to Halliburton Co. and other "old devils," saying Kerry needs to amplify his plans for the future.
"One thing that bringing in the Clinton people should have done was to turn it around and have the campaign looking forward, to the future, with hope and optimism. That doesn't seem to be happening," MacManus said.
Other factors could easily reshape the campaign. The series of three Bush-Kerry debates starts Thursday in Coral Gables, Fla. The war in Iraq and domestic economic indicators such as the unemployment rate could change significantly.
Seniors courted At a town hall meeting with senior citizens in Florida earlier in the week, Kerry delivered a feisty speech on Iraq that campaign aides heralded as a major turning point. And just before his voice faded, he called the president's plan for privatizing Social Security "a rip-off."
At a rally in Orlando the night before, an estimated 10,000 people turned out to hear Kerry and Edwards, many waiting three hours for the program to start. Some said their enthusiasm stemmed primarily from a desire to defeat Bush.
Larry Gosnell, a member of an electrical workers union who initially supported Howard Dean for the Democratic presidential nomination, said he's been out of work three years and blames Bush's handling of the economy.
"I am just a good old boy, hardworking, rock 'n' roll Southerner," Gosnell said. "I like Edwards. If I was to be honest about Kerry, I would say that a rich Democrat is an oxymoron, but we need those cats on our side."
Bob Stein, Rice University political scientist and pollster, said the race right now looks like Bush's to lose.
"Clearly, Kerry's message is better focused and not wishy-washy, but his 'turning a corner' is like turning a corner in Baghdad, there may just be another gun at your head," Stein said. "Bush has made every right move, from the convention on."
Strong in the stretch Kerry, a Massachusetts senator, has a history of running strong near the end of tough races. Before winning this year's Iowa caucuses, Kerry lingered for months in the middle of the Democratic pack. In 1982, he came from behind to win the Massachusetts Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. And in 1996, he rallied to win a bitter Senate re-election fight against Republican Gov. William Weld.
He asked supporters at a recent fund-raiser in Boston to stick with him again.
"Let me tell you something, these folks have got me in a fighting mood," Kerry said of his Republican opponents. "When I get in a fighting mood toward the end of September and towards the beginning of October, I think you know what happens here in Massachusetts."
julie.mason@chron.com
I'm also damned mad about your stupendously ignorant comments about Iraqi PM Allawi's speech to a joint session of the US Congress today. PM Allawi came here to thank our nation for the great sacrifices our nation has made to secure freedom and democracy for his people. He's dodged a few assassination attempts on his life while carrying on the democratic work of the new Iraqi government that the United States has allowed to materialize from the ashes of a previously brutal dictatorship.
PM Allawi came to America to give thanks...not to listen to the Carville/Begala style abusive comments now emanating from your campaign. He didn't come here with a Bush for President badge on his chest either, nor is he likely to take home any special ribbons for his courageous service to his country.
The Iraqi PM hasn't won a purple heart or a silver star for his efforts, but he probably deserves them just as much as you did. He and many other brave participants in the newly established democratic government of Iraq are equally deserving of commendations...not your nasty insinuations. As a war hero, surely you understand the value of their irreplaceable personal sacrifices for democracy. You, of all people, should have an appreciation for the need to commend them, not attack them.
Get back to a campaign on the issues Mr. Kerry. American voters know you're way out there to the left of most of us concerning American security and the US Military...but why not try to convince us that you really have a positive agenda for the nation?.... ***
How do they get that title? The actual article seemed to have a number of people saying "Momentum? I don't see any momentum for Kerry."
Oh hell - just throw the kitchen sink. you're going to lose anyway, why not just throw it all and have fun?
That bull about him being good in the "stretch," what crap. Just trying to keep people interested in the race. I'm from Massachusetts--the story's nonsense.
"I am just a good old boy, hardworking, rock 'n' roll Southerner," Gosnell said. "I like Edwards. If I was to be honest about Kerry, I would say that a rich Democrat is an oxymoron, but we need those cats on our side." ***
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An electrican that can't find work for 3 years? I smell a rat.
I understand he had to fight to keep his seat in Massachusetts - AND this isn't a Massachusetts election.
And "out of work for 3 years". Maybe his rock "n" roll attitude has something to do with that.
He's a dem--he expects customers to come to his door.
Well, again he shows he's too dumb to know who's friend and who's enemy.
I'm getting this mental picture of Kerry's campaign staffers standing around Lurch on the table, applying the electrodes, throwing the switch, flashes of lightning, and, "He's aliiiiiiiive!"
I'm not trying to seem overconfident, but it looks pretty good for President Bush right now. I pray it stays that way.
LOL
Yes, we need to pray for Bush and our troops.
The Democrats still haven't figured out that their candidate is a loser..
They can put lipstick on that pig, but he'll still be a pig.
Semper Fi
I sleep easy these nights, knowing the Kerry campaign is being run by the Clintonistas who get their marching orders direct from Chappaqua.
He was up against Bill Weld, a liberal RINO (I thought Weld did a good job, but he was practically a liberal dem). In the end there was no way a Mass senate seat was going Republican in the post-Dukakis era.
Kerry is an unbelievably pathetic candidate who thought he could do what he does in MA--cruise into the office. We in MA are grateful the rest of you aren't stealing him away from us. :)
I feel like that writer in Oregon. It is a great rant and Kerry earned it!
Great comments, BTW! I hope you sent them to Kerry!
Kerry's new image is to spew hate and anger. He's trying to be like Dean (use body-bag politics), but without the charm. It's a desperate attempt to play to his radical left base, because it is turning moderate voters off. With his latest attack, he has opened the door for Dubya (through Cheney, which has already started) to say that once again, Kerry is ready to abandon the troops and play patsy to our enemies. His slight of the Iraqi PM today was a huge mistake. The fact that he couldn't take time out from his busy schedule of meeting union thugs to be at the speech, or even vote on the new director of the CIA, is something that Rove will be beating over Kerry's head until election day. And in the debates, all Dubya has to do is play for a tie. Kerry has to try for a decisive win, which means we will see him at his smarmy, patronizing worst. I suspect that he polls in the mid 30's, Bush in the low 50's following the debates. This is going to be a blowout.
Will he be vulnerable in Mass after this?
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