Posted on 09/23/2004 2:11:29 PM PDT by Southside_Chicago_Republican
(AP) WASHINGTON - Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.
The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options — at least for now — in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can't win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.
While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.
Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.
The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October. Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign's dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.
With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it's important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush (news - web sites) to defend the GOP turf.
Bush and the Republican National Committee (news - web sites) have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets — $330,000 this week alone — to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore (news - web sites) won four years ago.
Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.
Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon — all states won by Gore that Kerry can't afford to lose.
Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best hope of claiming territory won by Bush in 2000. After that, the options dwindle to a few small states: New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado.
Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.
Because of population shifts since 2000 that favor Republicans, Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-266.
TERESA: WE'RE DOWN IN ARIZONA? WHO CARES?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1225051/posts
Indeed, it's a miracle he and Edwards still hold their Senate seats. They should've resigned a long time ago. Then again, it's not like North Carolina and Massachusetts are losing any representation--Edwards isn't running for re-election in NC, and Kerry never did do much. Edwards will hang around until January, but effective November 2, we'll never hear from him again.
My theory on Kerry's refusal to resign comes from the fact that there's a Republican governor in MA right now.
Somebody:
How many states is Bush advertising in?
How many states is Kerry advertising in?
It seems kerry has money trouble and this explains his desperation shouting effort.
I've seen so few Kerry bumper stickers and LOTS of Bush stickers in the greater Phoenix area that this doesn't suprise me a bit.
How many states is Kerry advertising in?
It seems kerry has money trouble and this explains his desperation shouting effort.
My last info was that sKerry needed one of those four states (that he;s abandoning) to assure election. I think desperation mode will set in when electoral projections finally sink into Ter-Ay_Zuh's mind about these states -whole states or partial states.
Pulling these ads is the political equivalent of:
PULLING THE FORK OUT...
AFTER you stuck it in and determined the turkey is now fully cooked and starting to burn.
Good move.
Reducing Kerry's visibility in these states will up his poll numbers.
Always does.
Good move.
Maybe even Teresa isn't crazy enough to finance his campaign.
These states are also leaning towards Bush. The only states Kerry may win will be the New England states and IL.
Pinging to #31 here....when you go in, Al Baby makes his "return" on his post 27 of that thread....
I think Kerry is going to try the gore gambit in FL.
FL has serious problems with the new voting machines.
FL has serious problems with the duplicate voters on the rolls.
FL has serious problems with provisional ballotting.
WIRED NEWS also has details how the "GEMS" of DiBold machines can be EASILY tampered with:
http://www.wired.com/news/evote/0,2645,65031,00.html
Kerry must be looking to win FL in the courts as his last chance. (he has already started email fundraising for the "potential" court battle per FR)
bttt
His former, former campaign manager, MaryJane Cahill, is now in charge of collecting money for a recount...which they say they'll need. Last time, they say, they didn't have enough money to fight to the end, and so Gore lost. Sigh.
Ah but you can only surrender when you have been fighting. French and fight just don't go together. Only the dem/libs FIGHT. ha,ha.ha.
Or what? They would appeal to geneva?
Democrats will never just loose, the want "peaceful coexistance and room to grow."
What they are really saying is that Kerry is so far behind in MO that the St. Louis voting machines can't be rigged to overcome the deficit.Or maybe they've planned such massive vote-fraud in St Louis that they don't need to spend advertising money in the state. After all, what's the TOTAL population of St Louis... including all the people buried there. It might be a big enough number to allow them to win no matter how the rest of the state votes.
I'd suspect that pretty much all the ad space that the campaigns are going to buy has been reserved and purchased already. A lot of the computerized calls, direct mail, precinct organization has already been payed for too.
Bush learned the hard way in 2000 what a first class turnout operation can do. They won't be taken by surprise again. Bush/Cheney '04 will win the ground war this time.
In my opinion, it will be the largest turnout of evangelicals and conservative Catholics for a Republican in modern history. I think the turnout models that these pollsters are using doesn't take into account a 4-6 million vote jump for Bush in evangelicals alone.
a large portion of candidate school seminars are devoted to GOTV (get out the vote)
They tell all campaign workers to even go to lengths as changing their answering messages to remind people to vote for X.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.