Posted on 09/22/2004 10:18:27 AM PDT by Pikamax
ABOUT THAT RUMORED NECK-AND-NECK POLL [09/22 12:54 PM]
Some Bush supporters who read the Kerry Spot are concerned about this reference in ABC News' The Note:
There's the fact that two of America's leading news organizations (who poll together) are about to release some horserace numbers that are going to suggest a tight race and tease out the "Kerry closes the gap with momentum" storyline for which the press hungers. (As Joe Lockhart would say, EVERYONE in Washington knows about these poll numbers …) Well, there is this Interactive poll by Zogby, which is based on self-selected Internet respondents. As I wrote earlier on the site, the Web-based poll results are so out of whack from the rest of the pollsters, that Zogby is either a genius detecting a Kerry landslide that no one else is, or he's misjudging wildly.
But as for figuring out this upcoming poll... this is almost as easy as debunking a CBS memo. Take a look at RealClearPolitics' chart of head-to-head presidential polls. Who hasn't come out with one in a while?
IBD/TIPP finished its poll 9/18; CBS finished 9/16 (oh, wait, ABC said a leading news organization, not a misleading news organization); CNN/USA Today finished its poll 9/15; the Investor's Business Daily/Christian Scientist Monitor poll was 9/12...
Way down the list, we see the ABC News/Washington Post poll was last completed 8/29. And it looks like these organizations complete something every three or four weeks. So we're due for one from ABC/WashPost.
And last time out, ABC/WashPost had Bush and Kerry at a dead heat, 48 percent each. So while a neck-and-neck poll may seem like a huge shift from the Time, Newsweek, and USA Today polls showing a double-digit Bush lead, it would actually be about the same as the last ABC/WashPost poll.
Also note this bit in the poll about party affiliation:
Finally there’s the fundamental issue of party preference. It shifted to the Democrats after their convention: Thirty-nine percent of registered voters in the Aug. 1 ABC/Post poll identified themselves as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans and 26 percent as independents (among likely voters it was 40-32-24). That’s more Democratic, and less Republican, than usual; and indeed in this poll it has settled back to 32-33-29 percent among registereds, and 34-36-27 percent among likely voters, who account for 56 percent of the general population in this survey. Moving party loyalty is one of the aims of political conventions, and now it’s Bush’s turn to try. The question, as with Kerry, is not only whether he can create movement, but if so, how long he can keep it.
I know some pollsters who think this explination smelled a bit funny. Seven percent of the population stops considering themselves Democrats within a matter of a month?
So - chances are, later today or tomorrow we're going to see a poll showing Bush and Kerry tied, or perhaps even Kerry up a bit. Not terribly shocking - the Bush bump couldn't last forever. And, of course, we know we have to check the party preference numbers.
This is so infuriating.
If true, there's an advantage. It may encourage more work on Bush's end in GOTV.
Of course there was also one from 9/6-9/8 showing Bush up 9 points. But whatever .....
I thought the two Kerrys were neck and neck with Bush way out in front.
FWIW, I think the poll they're referring to is WSJ/NBC poll that's supposed to come out at 4:30 PM EST this afternoon.
HMMMMMMMM, since the race has tightened up nationally I guess all the battleground states were Bush is leading or tied with Kerry are now back in Kerry's camp?
Ditto fire up the masses, make it a double landslide.
This race was BOUND to tighten up. Thats why they call them "Bounces"... I've always said it was going down to the wire, despite the optimism for a blowout here on FR.
I suspect it'll be a tight race, but it's a bit early to conclude that it's back to even.
Just be ready to RIP THE POLLS APART!!!
I can See the FREE REPUBLIC threads now "MAIN STREAM MEDIA ARM OF THE DNC NOW RELEASES SKEWED POLLS TO BOOST DNC MORALE!
Polls suck. Period. They are more easily manipulated and doctored than a CBS gotcha memo.
Nothing has changed, the debates are thing that are going to decide this. And Bush will clean Kerry's clock.
There are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
The last NBC/WSJ had Bush up by only 2. Again, big deal.
The MSM insists on a "horse race" because it attracts viewers.
Traditionally, also recall that GOP does not pull away in most campaigns until the last 10 days -- when our advertising wreaks havoc with the sustained nightly bias of the MSM - ie, when people come to their senses.
I continue to contend that, if we are tied or ahead this early, the chances of a big win -- possible landslide for GWB -- are 50-50 or better.
Because the president is chosen by the Electoral College, only the state polls matter. Kerry has not made a dent in the Bush 2000 states (278 electoral votes), whereas Bush is moving up in Gore 2000 states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.
Here's my prediction. The polls will tighten up and the FR gloom and doomers will come out of the woodwork. The reality is, we should be spending more time at party headquarters making calls and stuffing envelopes and less time on FR. That goes for me too.
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