ABOUT THAT RUMORED NECK-AND-NECK POLL

NRO Kerry Spot ^ | 09/22/04 | jim geraghty

[Pikamax]

ABOUT THAT RUMORED NECK-AND-NECK POLL [09/22 12:54 PM]

Some Bush supporters who read the Kerry Spot are concerned about this reference in ABC News' The Note:

There's the fact that two of America's leading news organizations (who poll together) are about to release some horserace numbers that are going to suggest a tight race and tease out the "Kerry closes the gap with momentum" storyline for which the press hungers. (As Joe Lockhart would say, EVERYONE in Washington knows about these poll numbers …) Well, there is this Interactive poll by Zogby, which is based on self-selected Internet respondents. As I wrote earlier on the site, the Web-based poll results are so out of whack from the rest of the pollsters, that Zogby is either a genius detecting a Kerry landslide that no one else is, or he's misjudging wildly.

But as for figuring out this upcoming poll... this is almost as easy as debunking a CBS memo. Take a look at RealClearPolitics' chart of head-to-head presidential polls. Who hasn't come out with one in a while?

IBD/TIPP finished its poll 9/18; CBS finished 9/16 (oh, wait, ABC said a leading news organization, not a misleading news organization); CNN/USA Today finished its poll 9/15; the Investor's Business Daily/Christian Scientist Monitor poll was 9/12...

Way down the list, we see the ABC News/Washington Post poll was last completed 8/29. And it looks like these organizations complete something every three or four weeks. So we're due for one from ABC/WashPost.

And last time out, ABC/WashPost had Bush and Kerry at a dead heat, 48 percent each. So while a neck-and-neck poll may seem like a huge shift from the Time, Newsweek, and USA Today polls showing a double-digit Bush lead, it would actually be about the same as the last ABC/WashPost poll.

Also note this bit in the poll about party affiliation:

Finally there’s the fundamental issue of party preference. It shifted to the Democrats after their convention: Thirty-nine percent of registered voters in the Aug. 1 ABC/Post poll identified themselves as Democrats, 29 percent as Republicans and 26 percent as independents (among likely voters it was 40-32-24). That’s more Democratic, and less Republican, than usual; and indeed in this poll it has settled back to 32-33-29 percent among registereds, and 34-36-27 percent among likely voters, who account for 56 percent of the general population in this survey. Moving party loyalty is one of the aims of political conventions, and now it’s Bush’s turn to try. The question, as with Kerry, is not only whether he can create movement, but if so, how long he can keep it.

I know some pollsters who think this explination smelled a bit funny. Seven percent of the population stops considering themselves Democrats within a matter of a month?

So - chances are, later today or tomorrow we're going to see a poll showing Bush and Kerry tied, or perhaps even Kerry up a bit. Not terribly shocking - the Bush bump couldn't last forever. And, of course, we know we have to check the party preference numbers.

[finnman69]

The reality is, we should be spending more time at party headquarters making calls and stuffing envelopes and less time on FR.

are you kidding me, FR with the help of other pajamahadeen single handedly destroyed the LW media bias attack by CBS on President Bush and managed to turn it around on Kerry.

That's worth a lot more than stuffing envelopes, not that those activities are any less vital.

[GraniteStateConservative]

It will be the bipartisan Battleground Poll, not ABC/WashPost.

[tomahawk]

I think it's WSJ/NBC.

[ModelBreaker]

are you kidding me, FR with the help of other pajamahadeen single handedly destroyed the LW media bias attack by CBS on President Bush and managed to turn it around on Kerry. That's worth a lot more than stuffing envelopes, not that those activities are any less vital.

That was great then and I take nothing away from that accomplishment.

But in the last four weeks before the election, the only important thing (that we have control over) is turnout of the base. Folks reading your posts on FR are going to vote anyway.

The one thing you can do to most increase Republican turnout is to volunteer and spend your evenings and election day at campaign headquarters manning a phone. Plus, spend the weekend before the election walking precincts.

The 96 Hour Task Force (calls, mailers, precinct walking) put together by the state parties and the RNC is how we won the Senate in 2002. Republican turnout in states with a strong 96 hour effort was up 5%. That's more that the probable difference, nationally, between the two candidates. Believe me, it works big-time--but it needs enthusiastic bodies to work.

Turnout is how we're going to win this election and increase our hold on the Senate. So rational Freepers stop congratulating themselves about post 47 and call campaign HQ today and start making calls and walking precincts. It ain't nearly as glamorous as taking down Dan Rather. But in the next four weeks, it will make more of a difference.

[uncbob]

Hate to be pessimistic but with a flip flopping creep like Kerry and with Bush being an incumbent with a demonstrated record of leadership Bush SHOULD BE at least high 50s maybe low 60s in the polls

I think this will be worse than 2000

American public has been brain washed and brain dead for too long now

WE are on the downhill slope and it is not getting any better