Bush Running Strong In Seven "Blue" Swing States

The Dallas-Fort Worth Star-Telegram ^ | September 20, 2004 | Steven Thomma

[Clintonfatigued]

Polls by MSNBC, Knight-Ridder News, and Mason-Dixon Polling show Bush pulling even or slightly ahead in seven states that went narrowly for Gore in 2000.

[My2Cents]

Which ones?

(I'm guessing Wisc., Iowa, Minn., NY, NJ, Oregon, and NM.)

[stevek1]

This is great news!!

[Dog Gone]

Why not post the story?

[Truthsearcher]

He's not even or ahead in NY, probably more like NH and the other 6 you mentioned.

[Clintonfatigued]

I attempted to, but the link didn't work.

New poll covers IA, MI, MN, NM, OR, PA, WI

[BlueNgold]

IA, MI, OR, PA, WI

Bush leads in Iowa, Oregon, and Wsconsin.
PA is still tight.
And MI is close enough to be in play.

A non-subscription link:
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/09-20-2004/0002253941&EDATE=

[jern]

for later

[IndianPrincessOK]

Please explain more or give us this story...what states?? there is a sign up in order to view from your hyperlinks.

[sinkspur]

It's the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. There is no "Dallas" in the name.

[sinkspur]

No. The link works.

[LiveFreeOrDie2001]

I'm in Minnesota (a swing state).

I'll be volunteering for the GOP-MN campaign doing whatever I can to swing it to Red.

[Petronski]

Total electoral votes of states Bush
is seen as winning on Tradesports:

295

Total electoral votes of states Kerry
is seen as winning on Tradesports:

243

[Clintonfatigued]

Here's the article:

Bush gains in crucial blue states

In key states that backed Gore in 2000, polls show President cutting into Kerry base.

By Steven Thomma

Inquirer Washington Bureau


WASHINGTON - President Bush has made inroads in many of the swing states that voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000, helped by supporters who like Bush more than John Kerry's backers like their candidate.

In Pennsylvania and six other key states that went Democratic four years ago, roughly 7 in 10 Bush supporters said they would vote for the President because they like him very much; only 1 in 10 said they would back him because they dislike Kerry. But just 4 in 10 Kerry voters said they would vote for the Massachusetts senator because they like him very much, while 3 in 10 said they would do so because they dislike Bush.

The findings came in a new Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll and two other single-state polls that showed Bush cutting into Kerry's base, drawing even with or taking a slim lead over the senator in six of those seven swing states.

Bush outpolled Kerry in Iowa by 48 percent to 42 percent; in Minnesota 46-44; in New Mexico 47-43; in Oregon 47-43; and in Wisconsin 46-44. In Pennsylvania, Kerry drew 45 percent to Bush's 44 percent. In Michigan, Kerry's strongest state among the seven, the Democrat outpolled Bush 47-41. The margins of error were plus or minus 4 percentage points, making each result close enough to be considered a statistical tie.

Five of the state polls were conducted Sept. 14-16 for Knight Ridder (The Inquirer's parent company) and MSNBC by Mason-Dixon Research & Polling. Mason-Dixon also surveyed Minnesotans Sept. 11-14 for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio, and polled New Mexicans Sept. 15-16 for the Santa Fe New Mexican and KOB-TV. In each state, 624 to 629 likely voters were polled.

All polls are but snapshots in time. Election Day is six weeks away, and voter sentiment may well shift. All swing states remain sufficiently close that the coming Bush-Kerry debates could be decisive, especially when combined with efforts by each side to turn out its voters.

Still, the new polling - combined with a Knight Ridder-MSNBC survey announced Sunday of six swing states that Bush carried in 2000 - offers the most detailed look so far this year at 13 battleground states that probably will decide the election. The 14th - Florida - could not be surveyed accurately last week because of disruption from recent hurricanes.

Taken together, the surveys show that Bush appears to be holding his base in most of the six swing states he won in 2000 while making inroads in many of the others that Gore carried.

"As of now, George W. Bush clearly holds the upper hand in the Electoral College battle," said Brad Coker, who conducted the polls for Mason-Dixon. "There is still plenty of time for John Kerry to turn things around, as Bush's margins are hardly insurmountable in most of the battleground states.

"But with the election focusing primarily on national defense, Kerry is playing on a field that has historically favored Republicans, particularly incumbent Republican presidents."

One key trend is that terrorism and national security topped voters' list of concerns in Republican swing states and came in first or a close second for voters in the Gore-2000 swing states. In the Gore states, although a majority of respondents said they thought the election outcome would not affect the chances of additional terrorism, remaining voters preferred Bush over Kerry to keep them safe from attack by roughly 3-1.

"The war on terror is my top priority," said Joe Arresto, 49, an account executive in Warren, Mich. "Bush has shown strong leadership, strong decision-making. Yes, there are things that haven't gone according to plan, but I think Bush's decisiveness has been key."

Even when voters turned to the economy, where Democrats hoped to gain broader support, they split almost evenly between Bush and Kerry.

"I don't think the President has all that much influence on the economy," said Norma Mottet, 78, a secretary in Bettendorf, Iowa. "I just think it's going to do what it's going to do."

Besides support based on personal likability, Bush's opposition to same-sex marriage also may help explain his appeal. A majority of likely voters supported banning gay marriage in the five Gore-2000 states that were questioned about it last week: Iowa, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Voters split on the war in Iraq.

In interviews, those who supported Bush tended to see the Iraq war as part of the broader battle against terrorism.

"We have to fight the terrorists over there," said Louann Milledge, 64, a homemaker in Eau Claire, Wis. "If we don't, we'll have to fight them here."

Those supporting Kerry tended to see Iraq as a costly and unnecessary mistake that distracted the United States from the fight against terrorism.

"Bush moved us from Afghanistan into Iraq, which was ridiculous when they posed no danger to us," said Daniel Peroni, 74, a retiree in Commerce Township, Mich.

One issue that is not a major factor is the sniping between the two sides and in the news media over the candidates' military service during the Vietnam War. Four out of 5 voters said the Vietnam-era activities of either candidate would not influence their voting decision.

The poll found Ralph Nader's independent candidacy also is not a major factor in any of the seven Gore-2000 swing states. The surveys showed he wasn't drawing enough support in any of them to alter the Bush-Kerry outcome, and interviews suggested many former Nader supporters wouldn't vote for him again.

"Last time I voted for Nader, and Bush got in," said Donna Duerr, 58, a small-business owner in Leon, Iowa. She plans to vote for Kerry.

Kerry partisans could draw hope from several signs of discontent in the seven states if their candidate can convert it into rejection of Bush.

A plurality or majority in Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin said jobs were difficult to find in their communities. In Iowa, only a small plurality said jobs were available.

"Jobs are hard to find, especially jobs that will sustain a family," said Lana Caywood, 49, a part-time teacher who is looking for full-time work in Platteville, Wis. "Kerry would do a better job on the economy."

What's more, a plurality of voters in three states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Oregon - thought the country was on the wrong track. Voters in Iowa and Wisconsin split evenly.

Said Georgette Fischer, 61, who works for a wholesale florist in Philadelphia: "Bush is not bringing the boys home from overseas, the economy is going down the tubes, everything is going to pot."

[Paleo Conservative]

Kerry is making negative progress in his base states. A marist poll released September 15 and quoted by electoral-vote.com puts Kerry under 50% with just an 8% lead (48% to 40%) in New York.

Bush Narrows Kerry's Lead In New York, Says Sep. 15 Poll

DemocRAT John Kerry leading Bush, 47 percent to 41 percent in New York

NY Republican Party: W within Five Points of Kerry in New York! New York Republican State Committee

New York

Date	Pollster	Kerry	Bush	Nader
Sep 14	Marist College	48	40	4
Aug 26	Rasmussen	56	37	0
Aug 9	Quinnipiac Univ.	53	35	4
Jul 15	Siena Coll. Res. Inst.	51	29	0
Jun 30	Rasmussen	58	30	0
Jun 14	Quinnipiac Univ.	55	36	1
May 31	Rasmussen	57	34	4
Apr 22	Siena Coll. Res. Inst.	51	32	1

[Petronski]

And in general, electoral-votes.com is badly skewed today because of a slew of Zogby polls that came out Monday.

As good polls take their place, we should see a more accurate picture.

[narby]

How we gonna get the red/blue colors changed around?

I am NOT a commie, and I don't want to be associated with those Red Democrats.

What MSM clown started this?

[Dog Gone]

Thank you! Good news.

[HairOfTheDog]

This is anecdotal, but hopeful for us in Washington State.

Check out the political booths at our WA state fair last night... I think I see a good sign!

We got stickers and buttons and stuff.... lots of people were seen around wearing Bush stuff.

[patriciaruth]

Just think of yourself as a red-blooded American, and Kerry as a blue blood.