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To: Lurking in Kansas

I don't smell a landslide, sorry.

I never thought that Bush would lose any of his 2000 states, which gives him 278 EVs in 2004, I think.

The question for me has consistently been which Gore states would he pick up?

He never had (and in my book still doesn't have) much of a chance in Hawaii, Cali, Washington, Illinois, Michigan, NY, VT, Maine, Maryland, Delaware, NJ, CT, Mass, RI, and DC.

I never though he would win Minn or Oregon but I think he might be able to pull one of the two out now, though I still consider it unlikely.

I consistently felt he would win all Iowa, Wisconsis, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico.

If he wins everything I expect but Minnesota and Oregon, that's a comfy win for Bush with 321 EVs, to 217 for Kerry.

MN would make that 331, OR would make that 328, both would make that 338.

Of the 14 states & DC that I list for Kerry, I realistically don't see any going for Bush on election day (small shot to NJ which has polled well lately but remember, people from NJ live there so count them out!)
So is 338-200 margin at best, down to a 321-217 margin a landslide? Not in my book, though it is a commanding and solid win.


30 posted on 09/18/2004 8:27:15 PM PDT by HitmanLV (I will not be pushed, filed, stamped, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered. My life is my own.)
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To: HitmanNY

Sadly, it looks like he will not be able to beat the 379 electoral votes Bubba won in 1996, although Bush will very likely beat BJ's 49.23 popular vote percentage from the same year.


33 posted on 09/18/2004 9:05:09 PM PDT by nsc68
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