Posted on 09/16/2004 11:50:30 PM PDT by churchillbuff
Madrid, Spain, Sep. 15 (UPI) --
Off the record conversations with intelligence chiefs in five major European countries -- each with multiple assets in Iraq -- showed remarkable agreement on these points:
-- The neo-con objectives for restructuring Iraq into a functioning model democracy were a bridge too far. They were never realistic.
[snip] -- The insurgency has mushroomed from 5,000 in the months following the collapse of the Saddam Hussein regime to an estimated 20,000 today, which is still growing. Insurgents are targeting green Iraqi units and volunteers for training and some have already defected to the rebels.
[snip] -- To cope with the insurgency, the United States requires 10 times the rebel strength -- or some 200,000 as a bare minimum. Short of that number, the insurgency will continue to gain momentum. The multiple is based on the British experience in Northern Ireland for a quarter of a century as well as France's civil war in Algeria (1954-62), when nationalist guerrillas were defeated militarily, but won the war diplomatically. France deployed half a million men to defeat the fellaghas in Algeria.
-- The U.S. occupation has lost control of large swathes of Iraq where the insurgency operates with virtual impunity. ...
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
We cannot train a "decent Iraq security force" because few Iraqis will kill their countrymen for Americans.
There is a lot of chest beating about "victory" on threads like this. Particularly from people who haven't grasped that in 40 years of rule Israel has failed to pacify the West Bank and Gaza and failed to create a non-PLO Palestinian political authority.
On 11/3 Bush will come down on them with a ferocity that will take the world's breath away.
We will cut a Sherman-like swath of scorched earth through the Sunni triangle on our way to Iran.
BUMP
Reward your friends.
Punish your enemies.
Free Kurdistan now!
You might want to rephrase.
'Dissemblers' means 'liars'.
Haa Haa Your right. Its not operation market garden
How right you are.
It was idiocy to think we could redesign their political culture.
Those who prate about "victory" do not seem to grasp that the American people have no intention of pouring blood and treasure into a bottomless pit in the absence of any real Iraqi support.
So then how has Turkey remained a democracy for 60 years? Turkey is in fact an Islamic democracy. Why can Iraq not become a neighboring Islamic democracy?
The darkest hour is always just before the dawn.
A lot of intelligent people said exactly the same thing about Japan in 1945.
In early 1942, a lot of smart people also said we would never be able to defeat the German U-boat fleet and launch an invasion of Europe from Britain. It was a bottomless pit of supply ships sinking in the North Atlantic with thousands of merchant sailors dying every month. I would not underestimate the power of perserverance and ingenuity in defeating the insurgents. As Calvin Coolidge once said (in his only memorable quote), "Perserverance alone is omnipotent."
I think 'dissidents' was the word you wanted.
"The neo-con objectives for restructuring Iraq into a functioning model democracy were a bridge too far. They were never realistic"
You find that the term "neo-con" implies a Jew and that there is a further assumption this war was for Israel; hence, it lacked merit and has now failed.
The simple fact is we do not consider ourselves occupiers. Our strategy is really quite simple. First, we remove Saddam. Second, we disband the Sunni and Baath control of the armed forces. Third, we train a new army, police and internal security group. Once these three are done, we hope the Iraqis are like everyone else in that they prefer an open, self-determining society and not rule by fascists or Islamascists.
Another connotation of "neo-con" is that this war was not only wrong but we deserve to lose it. Whether it is the Buchananites or the Nadarites the opposite poles of the political spectrum wants to declare this war a failure. Indeed, it is now the chief RAT talking point--we have failed and it is not worth it. Again, they have concluded this failure and if you disagree you are to disprove a negative (something no one can do) In actual fact, it is up to Arnaud de Borchgrave to prove his thesis.
Once the election is over, it will be harder for terrorists (not insurgents)to find people to die for either Saddam or Allah. After all, sooner or later the everyday Iraqi is going to rebel against being killed by IDE's and suicide bombers who are notoriously not selective in their murders.
There is absolutely no analogy whatsoever between the occupations of Japan and Germany. I have no recollection of MacArthur yielding Nagoya, Kagoshima, and Chiba to rebels.
In Japan the ruling elite had been completely brought over. The militarists were all dead and discredited. Japan wanted to live in peace and prosperity. Japanese civil and police authorities cooperated completely with the occupation. Is that anything like the case in Iraq ? We pour money into creating an Iraqi military that will not kill its countrymen for Americans.
And as for Turkey, militant Islam was beaten back by Ataturk but it has never been eradicated. Turkish secularism is the creation of the Army and the westernized middle class, not the mass of the people.
Militant Islam is as much part of Islam as fundamentalism is part of Christianity. It will always be there. Sometimes powerful, sometimes weak. But always there.
Then you are living in denial. We ARE occupiers and the Iraqi people quite rightly see us as such.
Second, we disband the Sunni and Baath control of the armed forces.
Right. Remove Iraqis from the control of Iraqi armed forces and expect them to fight for America. And be astonished when they run at the sound of gunfire. For 40 years Israel has ruled the Palestinians and it has failed to pacify the West Bank and Gaza. It cannot create any kind of Palestinian "leadership" that will turn against the PLO. Doesn't that tell you something about our long term chances of success ?
Again, they have concluded this failure and if you disagree you are to disprove a negative (something no one can do) In actual fact, it is up to Arnaud de Borchgrave to prove his thesis.
de Borchgrave is living in this world, not a dream one. We have lost control of several major cities. Baghdad is in flames. The insurgents have quadrupled in strength. The "sovereign" Iraqi government commands neither legitimacy nor a reliable army. Brave Americans are dying daily. Oil and power facilities can be disrupted at will. Does this sound like progress to you ?
Trying to bring Iraq into the democratic states is going to take time and blood. If you are happy with the possibility of rogue states possessing WMD and using our own aircraft to kill our citizens, you will find yourself in a small minority regardless of your claims of defeat.
No empirical base ?
We have lost control of several major cities. In counterinsurgency that is an undeniable yardstick for how the government is doing. It means that the govenment is losing the war. In fact, it is on its last legs.
Large areas of the capital city are no-go. Not promising.
Oil and power facilities cannot be secured. They can be disrupted on a weekly basis.
Insurgents are growing stronger by the day. Apparently they have no problem with replacing their casualties with new recruits. Iraqis are willing to die against us. They are not willing to die alongside us.
Domestic political pressure on allied governments to bring their boys home mounts. In none of our allies is support for this war even close to majority. Democracies cannot keep their sons in harms way in the absence of domestic support indefinitely.
These are empirical facts, the obvious truth. You are living in a make believe world of wishful thinking.
In 2005, the "coalition of the willing" is going to come apart like a cheap watch as allied governments capitulate to domestic political pressure and bring their boys home.
All the wishful thinking and training in the world will not give "our Iraqis" the will to fight any more than "our Vietnamese" had. All the training and equipment that America provided for decades could not change the fact that ARVN's sad sacks were consistently outfought by the NVA and Viet Cong.
This was as true and obvious in 1965 as it was in 1975. In retrospect it is obvious. And the same is obvious now. Now we could spend ten years of blood and treasure trying to turn Iraq into Alabama (just as we spent ten years trying to defend a nation without a national will) or we can face facts and realize that the Iraqis are not about to let the American Israel lobby redesign their political culture.
Arnaud de Borchgrave is a self important nut case.
We will be in Iraq and surrounding areas beyond the lifetimes of most of us because we have strategic interests there. The Euro-nitwits have been out aced and know it.
Bush wins election, terrorists fold. Simple as that.
We watched as the MSM snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Vietnam. No need to watch that movie again, I know how it came out.
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