Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Folks, can we ease off the the big graphics? Maybe an occasional NEXRAD image. Best to just post the link and describe what you are seeing.
You're killing us dial-up folks!
I had a link earlier for Hurricane IVan that had thousands of posts?
Anyone have that link
YOu have a good eye my man .. definately looks like nnw movement has resumed to me too. notice that the moisture is once again full wrapping around, but that huge dry pocket is still playing havoc around the eye.
Thanks Alan and Commish.
You should be able to turn off images in your own browser and then click on the placeholder icon to bring them in at your own pleasure. That way those with broadband don't lose their experience and you get some tolerable performance.
WWL just reported Ivan is traveling East of North. FWIW.
I just want to cry. That area of sandy beach, just above the "F" in "Gulf of Mexico" is where my parents condo is. It's so breathtakingly beautiful there. It's part of a huge development called the Beach Club. I have this awful feeling it's being destroyed as I type this.
Last advisory about 45 minutes ago reported just E of N movement also, but the Mobile radar shows a slight NNW movement the last 4-5 frames. Probably not noticable on the Sat or IR loops as they are 30 minute images, Mobile radar is on 3-4 minute image refreshes.
I sure hope not. There's so much destruction tonight. Keep good thoughts. It's all you can do right now.
Just picked up a garbled report of a micro burst with 80+ MPh winds..sound like GUlf Shores, AL all that was clear was the Gulf..so it could be Gulfport, MS or Gulf Breeze, FL.
What has happened to the Hurricane Net?
Lots of interference at the moment ... still getting a good signal on the Snellville, GA repeater, but hard to here most of the reports.
All I get is crackle out of Grand Rapids link.
Do you see any track that shows where the eye will be when it passes by our latitude? Last I saw (this morning) was in Western Autauga county.
CNN just showed a large fire/explosion in Mobile, and they also had unconfirmed reports of a mobile home park being heavily damaged by a tornado north of Pensacola.
| BOUY UPDATE | |
| Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL | |
| 21:50 CDT (Inside Eye) | |
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | NW ( 320 deg true ) |
| Wind Speed (WSPD): | 42.7 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 58.3 kts |
| Wave Height (WVHT): | 27.6 ft |
| Dominant Wave Period (DPD): | 10 sec |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 28.41 in |
| Pressure Tendency (PTDY): | +0.11 in ( Rising Rapidly ) |
| Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL | |
| 21:50 CDT | |
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | SSE ( 150 deg true ) |
| Wind Speed (WSPD): | 42.7 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 52.4 kts |
| Wave Height (WVHT): | 34.8 ft |
| Dominant Wave Period (DPD): | 13 sec |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 29.43 in |
| Pressure Tendency (PTDY): | +0.05 in ( Rising ) |
| Station 42007 - BILOXI 22 nm South-Southeast of Biloxi, MS. | |
| 21:50 CDT | |
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | N ( 10 deg true ) |
| Wind Speed (WSPD): | 46.6 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 58.3 kts |
| Wave Height (WVHT): | No Report |
| Dominant Wave Period (DPD): | No Report |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 28.98 in |
| Pressure Tendency (PTDY): | -0.19 in ( Falling Rapidly ) |
| Station DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL | |
| 22:05 CDT | |
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | NE ( 50 deg true ) |
| Wind Speed (WSPD): | 61 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 77 kts |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 28.97 in |
| Pressure Tendency (PTDY): | -0.30 in ( Falling Rapidly ) |
Where are your parents?
Do I have to repeat myself. Those HF frequencies won't be up again till daybreak.
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