Posted on 09/15/2004 4:35:53 PM PDT by Former Military Chick
The best thing financial consultant Johnny Khamis heard out of New York was that you don't have to agree with the party to be a Republican.
It seems a lot of other Arab-American Republicans heard the same message. A new poll shows them switching from John Kerry back to Bush just since the Republican National Convention.
The switch could re-elect Bush. Arab-Americans number the margin of victory in several key states. They represent 5% of the vote in Michigan, 2% in Florida, 2% in Ohio and 1.5% in Pennsylvania.
In 2000, Arab-Americans backed Bush over Al Gore, 45% to 38%. Ralph Nader, who is himself of Arab descent, got 13%.
This year things are different. In a just-released tracking poll by Zogby International for the Arab American Institute, Kerry leads Bush 49% to 31.5% among Arab Americans in the four key states. Even adding Ralph Nader, Kerry wins 47% to 31.5%.
But that's a whole lot better for Bush than before the convention.
In Zogby's July poll, Kerry led Bush by 30 points in a two-way race and 27 points in a three-way race. Now his lead is down to 17 in a two-way and 15.5 in a three-way.
Much of the difference comes from Republicans rejoining the Bush camp, albeit uneasily.
In many ways, Arab-Americans are natural Republicans. They're often enterprising, well-to-do, family-oriented and socially conservative. On many issues, they're right in sync with the GOP.
"There's a whole gamut of issues (on which) the Arab-American community agrees with the Republican Party," said Khamis, who lives in San Jose, Calif., and is president of California's Republican Arab American Congress. "It's just that we definitely don't agree with the way we're running foreign policy."
Hardly any Arab-Americans do. The Zogby poll shows just 10% rate Bush excellent or good on Israel and Palestine versus 82% who rate him fair or poor.
That explains Bush's poor showing among Arab-American Muslims, about 24% of all Arab-Americans. Just 5% say Bush deserves to be re-elected. A whopping 91% would like to elect someone else.
"There's tremendous disappointment with President Bush's lack of follow-through on the Palestine issue and Israel," said Bill Aossey, a third-generation Arab-American Muslim from Cedar Rapids, Iowa. "The Bush administration has basically said to (Israeli Prime Minister Ariel) Sharon, 'Do what you want.' "
Muslims polled favor Kerry 70% to 3%. "I would expect a more civil approach to a discussion (from Kerry)," Aossey said.
But 27% of Muslim Arab-Americans and 20% of all Arab-Americans are still undecided.
"They kinda don't know where to go," said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute. "They're not happy with the president for sure. They're also not happy with John Kerry."
Just 3% of Arab-Americans backing Kerry like him as a man. Fully half are voting against Republicans.
Fewer and fewer back independent Nader. His support has fallen from 20% in February to 9% now.
"He's having trouble establishing himself as a legitimate candidate," said Zogby's brother John, president of Zogby International.
Arab Republicans are finally biting the bullet and backing Bush. His support among Arab Republicans is up from 60% earlier to over 75%.
The shift is most evident among Orthodox Christian Arabs, who are 28% of those polled.
Pollsters talk a lot in election years about "swing votes." But rarely does a demographic group swing as far as Orthodox Christian Arabs have.
Orthodox Arabs favored Kerry 42% to 31% in July. Now they back Bush 50% to 31%, a gain for Bush of 19 points.
Catholic Arabs (35% of the poll) still prefer Kerry 46% to 40%. That's a point loss for Kerry and a four-point gain for Bush since July.
In July, only 33% of Orthodox Arabs said Bush deserved to be reelected. Now 48.5% say so.
Catholic Arabs who think Bush deserves another term rose just 4.5 points, from 34.5% to 39%. Muslim Arabs of the same opinion dropped a point, down to 5%.
Some Arab-Americans expect better from Bush in his second term.
"I believe that President Bush will be quite a liberated president in the second term, probably quite free from the pressure of special interest groups," said Sherine El Abd, a Republican Muslim and New Jersey civil rights commissioner.
"He really wants to achieve peace, and I believe he's probably going to get to work on it in the very beginning of his second term," El Abd said.
The Zogby poll included 502 Arab-American voters in Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The poll was done Sept. 9-12. Its margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.
Most Arabs in America are Christians, not Muslims.
Good point. Many people us the word Arab and Muslim interchangingly.
Gee, I wonder who they have in mind? This guy? Muslims and NPR both love him (literally) more than life itself:
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Naw. This guy:
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What about a twofer? How bout this one?
Or both of 'em together, the whole ticket!
I'm sure they'd have a policy that Muslims would love. Of course, they'd have to be Sunni Muslims, and not those Shia sons of pigs and dogs....
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
Arabs only make up 18 to 20 percent of the Muslim world. Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq, and Palestine Arabs are actually not full bled Arabs. They are actually mixed. Lebanon and Syria is Phoenicians. Egypt is Ancient Egyptians. Iraq is Mesopotamians. Palestinians are Arab and Turkish.
I didn't know that Arabs make up 5% of MI voters. This state has the largest Arab American population in the U.S., most in and around Ann Arbor.
Capitalism.
As a whole, they have a high percentage of business owners. Kerry's tax plan will kill them.
What does BTTT mean?
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