Posted on 09/14/2004 11:43:44 AM PDT by Constitutionalist Conservative
Say hello to...
ATLANTIC PUBLIC/MARINE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MESSAGES ISSUED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS
WTNT31 KNHC 141731 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2004
...TROPICAL STORM JEANNE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MARTEEN...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANGUILLA...AND FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA NORTHWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES ... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N... 63.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
Ay-Carumba!!!
Gotta be a bunch of east-coasters saying "OY!" right about now!
"For this we left Lon Giland?"
Ah geez, not this sh!t again.
MKM
Jeanne? That's my wife's name....
Don't worry, she'll only destroy the democratic enclaves in Florida....she's a loyal Freeper...
NeverGore :^)
Say yes to wax?
I'm with you. I did luck out and picked the one week this entire summer when it didn't rain to go on vacation.
I'm tired of rain, clouds, dreary skies, mold, allergies.
The new roof on my house is holding up pretty well, thank goodness.
I hope she's more like your wife and not my ex-sister-in-law...otherwise there'll be heck to pay!
Once again, Florida's on alert for . . . . . Hurricane Handout. Isn't that the next name in the sequence?
Wait...
Charley, Francis, Ivan.
All start with letters divisible by 3 (CFI::369)!
Hmmm...3...
TRIlateral Commission?
It IS Bush's fault!
Jean, Jean, roses are red
All the leaves have gone green
And the clouds are so low
You can touch them, and so
Come out to the meadow, Jean
Jean, Jean, you're young and alive
Come out of your half-dreamed dream
And run, if you will, to the top of the hill
Open your arms, bonnie Jean
Till the sheep in the valley come home my way
Till the stars fall around me and find me alone
When the sun comes a-singin' I'll still be waitin'
For Jean, Jean, roses are red
And all of the leaves have gone green
While the hills are ablaze with the moon's yellow haze
Come into my arms, bonnie Jean
(Jean, Jean)
Jean, you're young and alive!!
Come out of your half-dreamed dream
And run, if you will to the top of the hill
Come into my arms, bonnie Jean
Jean
La-la-la-la....
That's my middle name ----
Now you've done it.
You just couldn't keep your mouth shut, could you?
Expect a knock on your door momentarily.
The people in that part of the World are really going through way too many tropical storms so close together. I pray for them.
One of the things not talked about so far is how all our terrorist prisoners at GITMO are doing!
I am freakin' SOOOOOOO tired of this happy-crappy hurricane bullsh*t.
Well, is there anyone anywhere away from the southeast coast that wouldn't mind me moving in with you. I'm small, rather unobtrusive and a great cook. Not to mention a die hard conservative. I do have a dog that weighs about as much as I do, but is a hunka-hunka doggie luvin'.
PLEASE?!?!?
Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 5
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2004
reconnaissance...satellite...and San Juan Doppler radar data
indicate that Tropical Storm Jeanne has continued to strengthen.
The pressure has decreased to 998 mb...down 4 mb in 2 hours. The
initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a 1000-ft flight-level wind
of 58 kt...equal to about a 46-kt surface wind...and the improved
appearance in satellite and radar imagery since the recon fix.
The initial motion estimate is 290/08...although the two recon fix
positions suggest the motion could be closer to 285 degrees. The
18z 500 mb height at San Juan has not changed in the last 24 hours
...Suggesting that the large subtropical ridge to the north is
holding steady. All of the NHC model guidance...except for the BAM
models and NOGAPS...move Jeanne immediately northwestward and take
the cyclone just north of Puerto Rico. This seems unrealistic given
the past 18-hr motion of Jeanne and the 18z San Juan upper-air
data. So in the short term...Jeanne is forecast to pass near the
South Coast of Puerto Rico in 18-24 hours...and then skirt the
north coast of the Dominican Republic after that through 48 hours.
While the specific synoptic details of the various models differ
significantly...there is general agreement that the ridge currently
located north of Jeanne will remain intact throughout the forecast
period. However...the GFS and GFDL models weaken the ridge enough
to allow Jeanne to move almost due north after 72 hours along 70w
longitude. Given the GFS recent poor history of forecasting too
weak of a ridge over the western Atlantic...the official forecast
track leans more toward the UKMET and NOGAPS models. It should be
pointed out that the Canadian and ECMWF models keep a strong ridge
between Jeanne and Ivan through 120 hours...and take the cyclone
westward toward the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula.
Jeanne has developed an excellent outflow pattern and this is
expected to persist until the cyclone nears Puerto Rico. This
outflow pattern...combined with nearly 29c SSTs and a very tight
inner-core wind field as noted in the recon data...should allow
Jeanne to possibly reach hurricane strength before it reaches
Puerto Rico. After that...close proximity to Hispaniola should
inhibit strengthening until after 72 hours...when Jeanne is
forecast to move away from Hispaniola...and northerly vertical
shear is expected to weaken and become easterly in direction.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 14/2100z 16.8n 63.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 15/0600z 17.4n 65.3w 55 kt
24hr VT 15/1800z 18.1n 67.0w 65 kt...inland Puerto Rico
36hr VT 16/0600z 18.9n 68.6w 65 kt...near dom. Republic
48hr VT 16/1800z 19.7n 70.0w 65 kt...near dom. Republic
72hr VT 17/1800z 20.9n 72.0w 65 kt
96hr VT 18/1800z 22.5n 74.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 19/1800z 24.5n 75.5w 75 kt
Tropical Storm Jeanne Advisory Number 5
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 14, 2004
...Jeanne continues to strengthen over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea as it heads toward the U.S. Virgin Islands...
...Hurricane watches and warnings issued...
at 5 PM AST...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
At 5 PM AST...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the
northern and southern coasts of the Dominican Republic from Cabrera
southward to Santo Domingo.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the British Virgin
Islands...St. Kitts...and Nevis.
At 5 PM AST...the government of the Netherlands Antilles has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba...St. Eustatius...
and St. Marteen.
Tropical storm conditions could also affect the remainder of the
northern Leeward Islands.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar
indicate the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was located near
latitude 16.8 north...longitude 63.9 west or about 85 miles...
140 km...southeast of St. Croix.
Jeanne is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion could bring the center near St. Croix late
tonight or early Wednesday...and near Puerto Rico Wednesday
afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds indicated by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Jeanne could become a hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 40 miles
... 65 km from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 998 mb...29.47 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 8 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected near the path of Jeanne.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...16.8 N... 63.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 998 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
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