[Congressman Billybob]

As soon as it is clear that Kerry is down the dumper - about four minutes after the polls close on the East Coast - Hillary! will be the favorite to get the Democrat nomination in 2008. What I've set forth is that her chances are less of being the eventual nominee under the single primary pattern than under the current rolling campaign. She would almost certainly copy the Kerry pattern in 2004, given the chance.

Billybob

[Mark in the Old South]

I totally agree but I was under the impression that you believed the Demons would pick a better candidate. I doubt they will even with the single primary system. My point being they see the world through wavy glass spectacles. They have never faced reality because they see lots of voters who think like they do (sad to say many voters are bone stupid as well) but there is not enough to win elections without a third party to skew the results in their favor. They can only win if there is:

(1) Republican scandal
(2) a third party that is attractive to Republican leaning voters
(3) a national disaster that the Republicans mishandle
(4) they select a viable candidate who also appeals to Republican leaning voters.

They will not pick #4 because they just can not shake their Utopian illusions. #3 is out of their control and can backfire in making the Republican look heroic. That leaves #1 which is left to luck unless they can manufacture a false scandal, which can also backfire, see threads on memogate. And #2 which they can help along by grooming shills which is the most likely option they will try in 2008. Hillary is not called Lady Macbeth for no reason.

The question remains what will the Republicans do to counter this?

[JohnnyZ]

What I've set forth is that her chances are less of being the eventual nominee under the single primary pattern than under the current rolling campaign.

I entirely disagree. Under a single primary Hillary would start out with 40-50% of the vote under her belt, by far the most money, and by far the most name ID. There is no way another candidate could come close to competing with her, except maybe Bill. Where is the money going to come from to fund a national campaign against Hillary?

In a rolling campaign, other candidates would at least have the chance to take their message voter to voter, and could show a truer appeal to the rural Iowans and indy New Hampsherites and set up a David vs. Goliath scenario.