Posted on 09/11/2004 4:13:30 AM PDT by Josh in PA
Do you think that baseball fans are representative of the general Massachusetts demographic?
Bush wins MN? Are polls actually showing him ahead there? I have hopes he can be the first Republican to win it since 1972 but I am very skeptical. History is not on the GOP's side there.
I think if the election were held today though that we might lose NH but pick up WI, so GWB would take 284 votes. :) And that number should improve by 11/2.
...and no one thought Coleman could beat Mondull...it's a sea change out there...
Actually, my numbers have it Kerry leading Mass by 21, not 25.
Gore carried Massachussetts by 27 points, and two July polls indicated Kerry led Mass by 26-29.
Several factors, as you have described, make the race tighter than it would otherwise be (6 points closer than what Gore had it, and 5-8 points closer than what the only polls have it)
There's not much else at this time to indicate it'll be any closer than 20, other than your own vibes and at this time I'm not putting human emotion into this :).
If you're writing about South Carolina, AMEN!!
It's interesting the Ohio Bush +8, and Florida Bush +7 and Missouri B+8 are "battle ground states" yet California is Kerry +6 and it is considered by the left to be firmly in his camp. I think that a poll like this must really scare the libs.
Remember after 2000 everyone on the left asking rhetorically "why should one state make a difference?" well the truth is one state does make a difference, no democrat can win without CA. If I were a lib I'd be very worried about a poll with this kind of info in it.
California is a hard 6 though, where those other "battleground" states have softer support and easier to move in one direction or the other.
It's going to be tough for Bush to move much closer than 5-6 in California, even if he opens up bigger leads in other states.
Through my research, I've found that each state has a "pressure point" or "level of resistance" where movement past that certain point is very very limited. Similar to Technical Analysis in stock trading, each state has its own "resistance" and "support" levels for each candidate.
Once a candidate breaks through these barriers, it's landslide. Bush is at his resistance levels in every single state. If Bush has a stellar first debate, it could be breakthrough, and this race is Reagan-Mondale, Nixon-McGovern.
The only safe states for Kerry right now are the ones where he leads by double digits. That would be Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont,and the District of Columbia.
It's time for Bush to go after states like Michigan, Maine and Washington.
Please put me on your ping list===you have the best news I've heard all day!
Missed these pings yesterday... Sorry guys
I agree it will be a hard state and Bush probably won't win, but I think (hope) that the Kerry guys will need to secure the left coast and hopefully have to reallocat money to CA, WA and OR. That means they'll have less for places like Florida and Ohio. Hopefully.
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