I hope and pray (please, please, please, please, please) let this be so. However, he is a slippery one and knows where all the hidie holes are. However, the absence of his image on the 3rd annaversary tape with his right hand man has raised a lot of eye brows. Some think hes dead. Others postulate a scenario similar to yours - he's bottled up on constantly on the run and cannot communicate out. But I agree, either way a "GO" code has been given in his name and the clock is ticking.
That only works for so long, even with indigenious help in the region. Ask Eric Rudolf. With US SPECOPS dedicated to finding him and dedicated with 100% of their hearts, minds and souls.....there is no force on earth that will keep them off forever. These guys just know that they are the avenging angels of 911 and they take the charge with utmost seriousness. Remember that although they are cunning and ruthless and perhaps even brave (in a strange way) that OBL and his thugs are not well trained in the art of guerilla war. OTOH, they are going up against the very BEST OF THE BEST. The cream of counter-insurgency. And for them, it's very personal.
he's bottled up on constantly on the run and cannot communicate out.....
I think this is the case, but I think it's actually worse. IMHO, not only is he totally bottled up, I'm betting that he is restricted to a very defined area and he's not "running" anywhere. His 50 guys and Mullah Omar are getting ready to replay their version of Dien Bien Phu; or possibly the Battle of the Little Big Horn. And they know it. One corner of my mind hopes they will get him alive and parade him in front of DNC National HQ on election night. Another part of me hopes they have no choice but to cut him to pieces and stuff him full of pig guts before he dies, and make the rest watch. Maybe let one go to tell everybody else how America takes vengenance.