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In you most esteemed opinion, would Iran try to pull off a spectacular "pre-emptive" attack against US assets in Iraq to sway the US election.

I don't think that they would be that foolish because a conventional attack would galvanize the public around the President and would have the not traction necessary. They would also lose in the courts of world opinion since we are currently trying the diplomatic solution route. Although there is / are vulnerabilities to coalition forces, I think they realize that it is very dangerous to pull the tail of the tiger unless there are other factors (such as world and arab opinion) lined up to provide additional cover and deterence. Finally, there are plenty of Americans who still remember the hostage taking and would like nothing more than to stick it to the mullahs - pay back time.

I for one feel that this is more likely than an attack directly on American. A hit on the American homeland would sway voters towards Bush, while I feel a disaster in Iraq would sway voters to Kerry.

A surrogate attack thru AQ would be likely, but they (Iran) is not in the position to dictate the when and where. How the vote would be swayed as you describe for a domestic attack is very iffy, especially depends upon the type and timing. I think that they are rapidly losing the opportunity to affect the elections because Americans won't act like the Spanish did.