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To: tmp02; Oorang; drymans wife; MamaDearest; nwctwx; Domestic Church; Rushmore Rocks; Labyrinthos; ...
Part 2, The Persian Gambit - Iranian Options

In this part I want to evaluate the potential military and political goals and the theater of operations of any Iranian military response to an attack on its nuclear weapons development infrastructure. This will provide a clue as to any perceived weakness that the US and its allies or Iraq may have that could be exploited to their advantage. Iran knows that any military response against the US or its allies could have potentially devastating effects upon its own regime. However, there is also an islamic fervor of invincibility as the true Islamic state with allah’s favor resting upon them.

Asymmetrical Warfare

However, before I go further, I’d like to cover an issue that has come out very recently concerning Iranian military doctrine - asymmetrical warfare. The completion of their recent wargames was suppose to be a demonstrations of these capabilities. So what is asymmetrical warfare? Asymmetrical warfare is in the simplest of terms “warfare that applies comparative advantages against an enemy’s weaknesses”. This is not a new or particular revolutionary concept. The U.S. military attempts to engage in asymmetrical warfare whenever we meet an enemy on the modern battlefield. The implicit premise is that asymmetric warfare deals with unknowns, with surprise in terms of ends, ways, and means. The more dissimilar the opponent, the more difficult it is to anticipate his actions. Any competent enemy will do the unexpected, if he believes it will work. This may provide a tactical or strategic advantage until it is countered. Therefore, Iran’s announcement that it has a doctrine of asymmetric warfare indicates that it is trying to develop a degree of sophistication in its military that it can counter anything that the US / allies or Israel may do to it. Part of the recent Iranian news release pointed to the military maneuvers and the integration of close air support, airlifting of heavy armor, use of new tanks, and missile capabilities. So much of this part’s discussion naturally looks at Iranian advantages in the theater and how they may exploit them.

Political Goals

The political goals of an attack by Iran will likely focus on the following:

1. Rally support from the rest of the arab world against the US and Israel. This would be particularly true if a first strike is conducted against Iran by either Israel or the US. It would be much harder to obtain world support if Iran launches its own preemptive attack.
2. Embarrass the US and its allies militarily under conditions that cause them high casualties and / or tactical stalemate.
3. Deter further escalation of combat against Iran through the deployment of its forces and the preparation of defensive positions against a ground assault.

Attacking Israel is one of the tried and true means of gathering support of the arab world as well as to some degree some European nations. Just as Saddam was quick on the trigger to launch against Israel during Desert Storm, Iran will be quick to do the same. Propaganda broadcast by arab networks like Al-Jazera will further their cause to sway world opinion. There would be a lot of calling to jihad to fight the Christian crusaders. Any success against the US or Israel would naturally enhance their prestige and position of leadership for the arab cause and their bargaining position.

If Iran is able to successfully accomplish its military goals and place allied forces at a disadvantage, though probably temporally, would work to sway opinions in the US and allied nations. Already Iran is well aware of the divisive nature of the current operations in Iraq due to the current election campaigns. If they could inflict a single ‘big time’ defeat, such as damaging or sinking an aircraft carrier, they could use that in an attempt to turn public opinion. If their special operations forces are successful in triggering wide spread disruptions of allied operations away from any point of attack, it would further show their ‘superiority’ against the Great Satan. The ultimate goal would be to leverage their successes so that they could negotiate from a position of power.

Once their initial objects were achieved, the Iranian military would prepare for any potential counter attack that may be mounted. They realize that although the US has substantial forces in Iraq, they would have difficulty organizing a major counter attack and would need to be reinforced from the US, a process that could take weeks or months to get ground forces to the theater. By this phase of their political plans self survival of the theocracy would be foremost, especially if their initial operations are less than successful.

Military Objectives - Ground

As presented in Part 1, Iran has adequate forces to conduct ground operations against the US and its allies. However, because of the risk involved, Iran will carefully apply their forces where they could best obtain their objectives. Should they choose to attack into Iraq, they have two general options. The first consists of an attack into northern Iraq where there are limited resources and a hostile Kurdish population. The second, more likely option is to attack into southern Iraq where they may find sympathic Shiites, the bulk of Iraq’s petrochemical facilities and the supply lines supporting the US and its allies.

Their main thrust would be relatively small section of Iraq between Basrah and the Persian Gulf and southward to control crossing points between Iraq and Kuwait. This strike would cut off the supply lines for the US and allied forces, creating a blockade. Iran is familiar with this territory as it was fought over during the 1980’s war with Iraq. This was very effective until the US became involved in securing the Gulf and protecting shipping, allowing Iraq once again to receive supplies and material. It would be to Iran’s advantage to maintain the blockade as long as possible since it would significantly impact the US and allied forces in a similar manner.

I would also expect a supporting attack further north towards Amarah would serve to threaten the flank of any allied counter attack by units coming south out of Baghdad.

Military Objectives - Special Operations

There are significant numbers of Iranian special operations forces operating in Iraq right now. Their objective would be to stir up trouble and tie down US and coalition forces through multiple guerrilla attacks upon strategic targets such as logistic and command centers. Wide spread attacks would force the allies to either allow the terrorists to take over for a short time while they organize a counter attack or try to suppress the uprising and wait on the counter attack. Either way, the special operations forces have achieved their objective. If the allies organize right away for an attack, rear area operations will become difficult again as logistic and any supply lines would be hit. Freezing the allied attack would give ground forces time to consolidate their positions so that any counter attack would require a substantial troop build-up to be successful while maintaining the peace throughout the rest of Iraq.

Military Objectives - Sea

The main objective of Iranian naval forces would be to deny the use of the Persian gulf to the US fleet or to make it very costly. This would include attacks against any carrier battle group stationed there as well as trying to close the straits of Hormuz to all shipping. The goal is to develop a blockade of Iraq by sea long enough for ground forces to achieve their objectives. It would be very dangerous for the US to underestimate the Iranian capabilities. Our capital ships are vulnerable to shore-launched missiles as was apparent during Desert Storm when one of our amphibious assault ships was struck shortly after the ground assault began. Iran’s smaller, fast attack missile boats could launch hit and run attacks and with the newer chinese missiles could inflict some serious damage. Iranian submarines could do one of two things. First would be to try to inflict a first strike against the carrier group. Success is problematical since if a first strike against Iran is carried out by the Israelis or US, they would be alert too the threat. A more likely scenario would be to deploy the subs to attack undefended oil tankers and supply ships along shipping lanes coming into the Persian Gulf. This would send oil prices sky rocketing and inflict terror in the region. Unless US naval assets keep close tabs on their movements, US naval assets would initially be hard pressed to find them while at the same time dealing with the hit and run tactics and shore missile attacks. Finally, the occupation of US naval forces will divert support from ground troops to the fleet for a period of time, helping Iranian ground forces achieve their objectives.

Military Objectives - Air

Although their weakest asset, the recent wargames have indicated that they have developed a degree of close air support capability that could be used to support the ground assault. The best of the airforce would likely be held close to Tehran to protect the government, however, they would have a period of time to act while US naval air assets are dealing with the Iranian navy hit and run attacks and USAF assets are providing ground support to suppress guerilla attacks. Some assets could also be diverted to the east for counter shipping operations.

Military Objectives - Strategic Assets

Coalition difficulties in finding Scud launchers during Desert Shield / Storm will be exploited by Iran for counter attacks in the theater. Baghdad “Green Zone” housing the coalition and Iraqi headquarters would be one of their first targets. Oil facilities in the north would also be vulnerable as they may want to keep the facilities in the south somewhat intact for their own potential use. The longer range Shehab-3 missiles will likely be launched mostly at Israel to garner support of the arab countries with some potentially being launched towards England, Italy, or other european country to develop dissention in Europe against the US/Israel in support of stopping any prolonged operation against Iran for fear that they may be struck again. Other conventional targets would be the oil facilities of any Gulf countries supporting the coalition, again to raise terror, gain world support for a negotiated settlement of the conflict or black mail them into denying more support to the US for any counter attack.

Absolute worse case scenario would be that they use chemical / biological warheads. This is assuming that they don’t have the nuclear warheads yet. This could be the wild card if Iranian objectives are not being adequately met. The most likely target would be Israel because if they respond with a nuclear strike there would be a great deal of pressure on Israel to justify the strike. Any ‘justification’ would be generally rejected by many arab nations as a “Zionist lie” and would be viewed with skepticism by many in Europe.

A chemical/biological strike against US / coalition forces could work to increase anti-war opinions among the allies due to casualties or could back lash into a severe and potential nuclear strike by the US. However, because of close Russian ties, a nuclear counter strike by the US would be very dangerous and could pull Russia in on the Iranian side. That of course could fuel anti-war sentiment in the US and allied countries and gain more support from arab countries. However, this would also result in a major escalation of hostilities and the direct attack of Iran by US and coalition forces.

Part 2 - Conclusions and Observations

As you can see from Part 2, the Iranians have the capability to conduct asymmetrical warfare against the US and allied countries by focusing their strengths against our weaknesses in the region and they have a chance to succeed in the goals I’ve listed. Iran would hope for quick success and the gaining of world opinion for a negotiated cessation of hostilities before the US and allies can effectively counter attack. Iran knows that once US military forces are marshalled, its days are numbered and could increase the chance that Iran could use more desperate measures. Israel will be attacked no matter what with a high possibility that chemical and biological weapons could be used. The US response would need to be carefully balanced and measured to prevent Russian intervention of behalf of Iran and to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion.

In Part 3, I will look at a couple of more detailed scenarios that I think could occur and their potential outcomes.

3,739 posted on 10/09/2004 8:33:15 PM PDT by Godzilla (I Freep, therefore I am)
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To: Godzilla

Thank you Godzilla.


3,741 posted on 10/09/2004 8:50:23 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Godzilla

"The US response would need to be carefully balanced and measured to prevent Russian intervention of behalf of Iran and to bring the conflict to a swift conclusion."

Godzilla- that, in a nutshell, is my major concern. Russia's role in all of this.


3,765 posted on 10/10/2004 11:44:48 AM PDT by jerseygirl
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To: Godzilla

Most interesting and frightening analysis. In you most
esteemed opinion, would Iran try to pull off a spectacular
"pre-emptive" attack against US assets in Iraq to sway the
US election. I for one feel that this is more likely than an attack directly on American. A hit on the American homeland would sway voters towards Bush, while I feel a
disaster in Iraq would sway voters to Kerry.


3,801 posted on 10/10/2004 6:54:40 PM PDT by buckalfa
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