Interesting. You analysis made me put a few previously disjointed thoughts together in a way that is, well, frightening. Here are my thoughts. We have been hearing that Homeland Security is in a frenzy, but they don't know what the specific threat is. At the same time, Israel's foreign minister has said that November is the "point of no return" on the Iran nukes. We have sold Israel 16 or so F-18Is capable of hitting Iran without refueling along with bunker busting bombs which, in the words of Richard Holbrooke, aren't for the Palestinians. If there is one point of foreign policy on which Bush and Kerry agree, it is that Iran will not have the bomb. So it's not a question of what the decision will be, it's just a matter of who gives the order. And I will bet that they are thinking that the mullahs will respond with the only effective weapon at their disposal: terrorism. We don't know their specific plans, only that they will be implemented in Israel and America immediately after bunker busting bombs start falling in Iran. I suspect that the next three months will be interesting (Nov. if Bush wins, Jan. if Kerry), but I believe I would rather be bored.
Not to sound like I'm hawking a book, but the follow-on parts bring in a reality factor that no matter what happens we have to be ready for. I hope to have parts 2 and 3 done over the holiday weekend.
Also Godzilla's reference to Iran's small but fast navy geared for anti-ship warfare is significant. Disrupt the oil supply from the Gulf and the West's economy and therefore our ability to defend ourselves will suffer.
Good hypothesis and it seems sound!