Posted on 09/11/2004 12:09:10 AM PDT by nwctwx
Bracing for an 'October surprise'
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON - In the presidential campaign's closing weeks, Democrats are bracing for an "October Surprise," an event so dramatic it could influence the election's outcome. The capture of Osama bin Laden, for instance.
It's part of American political lore: The party out of power worries about a last-minute surprise engineered by the party in power. Now that October has arrived and the election is just a month away, speculation is rife among Democrats that President Bush and political mastermind Karl Rove have some tricks up their sleeves.
"I assume that it will be something," said House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California. "We have to be ready for that."
With the war in Iraq going badly and people concerned about terrorism, there also seems to be a better than usual chance for a significant event beyond either party's control.
Both sides know the possibilities: a major setback in Iraq or Afghanistan, a terrorist strike against the United States, a nuclear test by North Korea, an economic shock.
Three years after Bush said he wanted bin Laden "dead or alive," the capture of the fugitive al-Qaida leader tops nearly everyone's list as a supreme example of the kind of October surprise that could help seal Bush's re-election.
Democrat John Kerry made the failure to track down bin Laden a central part of his criticism of Bush in Thursday's first presidential debate. The Massachusetts senator claimed that Bush lost sight of that goal when he ordered the invasion of Iraq.
Some conspiracy buffs suggest bin Laden already has been captured or perhaps has been trapped by Pakistan in a cave, and will be produced just before the Nov. 2 election.
No matter how far fetched, some Democrats have helped add to the speculation.
"I think it would be outrageous, frankly, but you know, there's those kind of rumors out there," former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told ABC.
Even if bin Laden remains elusive, the capture of a major terrorist leader - bin Laden deputy Ayman al-Zawahri or Iraq's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, leader of a militant group that has claimed to have beheaded two American hostages - could provide an October boost for Bush.
Backlash possibility
But Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the administration risks a backlash.
"Producing a high-level al-Qaida leader would immediately invite suspicion about whether this person has been cooling his heels in a safe house some place," Baker said.
Perhaps the best late campaign season development might not be an actual surprise in Iraq, but a decline in the violence there.
Bush is no stranger to October surprises; his family has been on the receiving end.
The revelation of Bush's drunken-driving arrest as a young man came right before the 2000 election.
The Friday before the 1992 election, former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, who served in the Reagan and first Bush administration, was indicted in the Democratic-inspired investigation of the Iran-Contra affair. That posed yet another worry for the elder Bush's re-election bid, which failed.
Usually speculated-upon October surprises fail to materialize. There was talk that the Carter administration would produce a deal in 1980 to free the U.S. hostages in Iran. In 1968 and again in 1972 came speculation that a deal to end the war in Vietnam might be at hand.
Yet the Suez Canal crisis in the fall of 1956 contributed to Dwight Eisenhower's re-election landslide, historians suggest.
As Election Day draws nearer, Bush's options for election-influencing actions are dwindling.
With three tax cuts under his belt, there is not enough time for a new stimulus if the economy takes a sudden turn for the worse, perhaps reflected in a bad jobs report on Oct. 8. - the last unemployment report before the election - or in a stock market swoon.
Bush could release more crude oil from the national reserve to combat rising fuel prices. But he accused President Clinton of doing just that to help Democrat Al Gore right before the 2000 election. And Bush already has used some of those reserves to help refiners offset hurricane losses - with little impact on rising fuel prices.
Cheney departure?
One "Hail Mary" pass could be for Vice President Dick Cheney to leave the ticket - perhaps to be replaced by a popular moderate such as former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
Republican strategists scoff at such talk. But if Bush starts to fall behind, he and his advisers might want to try harder to reach out to moderates who dislike Cheney intensely. Cheney, who has had four heart attacks, could cite health concerns.
"The notion is that the October surprise is a Halloween trick for politicians. But the strongest possibility this time is something happening that nobody controls," said Princeton political science professor Fred Greenstein.
http://www.capecodonline.com/cctimes/bracingfor3.htm
Me either. :)
No PC here.
I am glad the powers that be are doing something un-pc like, too. Finally.
"And the vision that the sheikh saw is three times in three successive nights."
Interesting. Three attacks for three nights in a row?
Sure sounds like it to me. Tinfoil time: first, disrupt the electrical grid, then, cut off escape routes, then detonate the nukes/ieds/truck bombs etc.
I found it interesting that un the "unmentionable site" it was reported that the discovered and dismantled nuke devices were located between NYC and Boston ....in close proximity of the railroad tracks. (And- of course- the one nuke they could not dismantle and jettisoned deep into the ocean>"
This would have been around July 15. There is seismographic "evidence" presented on their (free) forum I will try to bring it back over here and let the experts like Godzilla take a look at it. Then, there is also a report of mass deaths of bottom feeders- groupers- washing up on the Atlantic shores around Maryland- "unprecedented in some ten years." Some were saying that a shift in current patters, creating low water temps. where these fish feed on the bottom- killed them. My question- could a nuke detonation under water shift the temperatures, currents, in a similar fashion?
JAPT
Bodansky:
There is ample evidence from impeccable sources that the Islamist-Jihadist forces are adamant on striking out before the U.S. elections. Some of the warnings specify a commitment to inflicting mass casualties on an unprecedented scale – perhaps through the use of a nuclear suitcase-bomb (which they definitely have).
OK- given that they have them, what can WE do?
Chemical fire shuts turnpike east of Harrisburg
(Wed, Oct/06/2004)
MOUNT GRETNA, Pa. - A truck fire involving toxic chemicals shut down 19 miles of the Pennsylvania Turnpike in both directions and forced evacuations in central Pennsylvania on Wednesday morning.
State police said the driver of a double-trailer truck pulled over at about 3:30 a.m. between the Harrisburg East and Lancaster-Lebanon exits for an apparent brake fire, which spread to one of the trailers.
Homes in the immediate area and a nearby recreational-vehicle park were evacuated while the fire was allowed to burn itself out, said state police Cpl. Erin Magee. The burning chemicals included potassium cyanide and epichlorohydin, and a hazardous-materials team would have to clean up the site once the fire burned out, he said.
Police could not say when the highway would reopen.
A motorist who passed by the accident scene was hospitalized with symptoms that included burning eyes, Magee said.
Magee said the truck was apparently in the eastbound lanes at mile marker No. 264, just south of Mount Gretna.
The incident diverted turnpike traffic onto nearby roads, snarling the morning commute for many in the Harrisburg area.
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/103-10062004-377999.html
In addition to the full moon on the 28th, there's also going to be a total eclipse of the moon on October 27-28. This celestial lineup of the sun, earth, and moon all in a row has got to have some major significance to them.
Apparently in Islam during an eclipse there's a special prayer observed. The eclipse prayer consists of two rak'at. Each rak'at has two standings (qlyam), two recitations from the Quran, two bowings (ruku'), and two prostrations (sujud). One performs two bowings instead of the customary one.
Two bows anyone???
Also, during a lunar eclipse is when the full moon can turn orangey or even blood red in color - if nothing else, definitely setting the mood for Halloween.
It would be interesting to see this 'evidence'. However, I can conclusively prove the July 15 'event' is the recording of an earthquake that occured on Vancouver Island.
Some were saying that a shift in current patters, creating low water temps. where these fish feed on the bottom- killed them. My question- could a nuke detonation under water shift the temperatures, currents, in a similar fashion?
Short answer - no. This is because the forces directing the currents are greater than a point location event in the deep ocean.
I didn't know that either.
Regardless, there are many now keeping watch and doing a mighty fine job. (Including TM!)
I agree. This plan has been in the works for a decade of so. The ( russian)nukes were made available to OBL for a price, and he seized them. Rogue Paki scientists came him several, as well. Cinese scientists helped provide the triggers and upgrade the nuclear devices.
IMo the weapons- in compoents- have been smuggle into the US for reassambly and transport to their ultimate locations,
I hope I am terribly wrong.
Hmmmm. Something to bookmark, for sure.
Here was the seismographi evidence they sited to indicate that "something" unusual occurred that day:
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/cgi-bi...r=2004&jday=197
Please debunk, Godzilla! I did not like reading about the part where many of the nukes were found near the RR tracks between New York City and Boston---heck- I can walk to the RR tracks here in Rowayton CT- within about 5 minutes. Major commuter route....
Reviewing regional data, I spotted the Vancouver Island quake noticing that it had occurred just before the Palasades event. A plot for the day of Canadian sites clearly showed the propagation of the seismic event across canada, with nearby canadian stations recording the event at nearly the same time and magnitude as Palasades. To double check, the USGS has an arrival time calculator. I inputted the data for the Vancouver Island Quake and the geolocational data for Palasades and the estimated arrival time was precisely on the money as the arrival time of the the alleged 'nuke' event.
The final data was that an ELF (extreme low frequency - a new tool in earthquake prediction) recorded the EMP. The only sites I found with on-line elf data ALSO had a calibration signal daily at the same time of the alleged event -therefore nothing was recorded there either.
Bottom line is they pulled data out of a hat but were VERY loose in their interpretation of it, not understanding what they had. I've plunked a few others recently making similar mistakes, most recently a poster started a thread that Mt. Rainier was becoming active - simply on the basis that seismic recorders at the mountain was recording quakes. Never mind that they were actually recording activity at Mt. St. Helens.
For some reason that link doesn't work but this one does;
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/LCSN/WebSeis/24hr_heli.pl?id=&year=2004&jday=197
The other sites I refered to are as follows
The canadian site
http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/hplot_e.html
And the travel time calc site
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/travel_times/compute_tt.html
Nothing unusual occured that day other than someone trying to make data support a tinfoil report that it couldn't support in a million years.
AP Interview: Muslim scholar denied U.S. visa tries again
By Jonathan Fowler
Associated Press Writer
October 6, 2004 1:00 PM
GENEVA -- A leading Muslim scholar who was barred from the United States at the request of the Department of Homeland Security has reapplied for the right to work there, saying Wednesday he has always condemned terrorism.
http://www.indystar.com/articles/4/184250-4134-127.html
Thanks for posting that, Ian.
I would like to see a debate between Marc Sageman and someone like, oh, maybe Paul Williams (whose views and backup you know alot about after reading his book) or even Joseph Bodansky or someone else who holds a bit more pessimism than Sagemen.
In other words, an active discussion with proof cited between those who doubt al qaeda's ability for another spectacular strike vs those who are merely waiting for it!
Police issue suicide bomber guide
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3717660.stm
Bomb blast targets Karzai's ally
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3718926.stm
On the trail of the black market bombs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3481499.stm
Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm................
Thanks for posting this very interesting read.
I heard the report of this assassination attempt earlier today but didn't make the connection.
Recent intel suggests that AQ has rebuilt it's mid-level infrastructure, even if the top tier seems to be feeling pressure. Recruiting is also supposed to be up as well. And not "everyone" is looking out for terrorists. Not the RATS! They're keeping their eyes on the economy......'cause that's what wins elections. Or so they seem to think. We'll find out what the real America thinks on Nov 2nd.
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