Posted on 09/09/2004 4:35:11 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON - After months of pledging to contest President Bush in every region of the country, Sen. John Kerry and Democrats are limiting television advertising to 14 battleground states as the fall campaign opens.
The shift bumps GOP-leaning Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and several Southern states off the political playing field - at least for now - and gives Bush reason to consider moving money from some of those states to others that historically trend Democratic.
Both presidential campaigns are honing their strategies now at the start of the election homestretch. That's when budgets grow tighter, forcing campaigns to pick and choose where to play.
Kerry's campaign tried to make the most of its money by reserving $50 million worth of advertising time in 20 states through Election Day. It's a strategy that will save dollars by locking in current advertising rates and ensure airtime when it's in high demand near Election Day. It also will alert Kerry's allies, who legally aren't allowed to coordinate with the campaign, to his strategy.
However, a close look at the advertising plans reveal that all the states won't get equal treatment and that the priorities are 14 states in which the Kerry campaign or the Democratic Party will air ads this month.
_The Kerry campaign has bought time in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Oregon. Those are the campaign's 10 most competitive states, ranking at the top of Bush's advertising priorities as well.
_The Democratic National Committee is airing commercials in most of those states to keep Kerry competitive with Bush's large ad budgets. In addition, the DNC is on the air in Maine, Washington state, Nevada and Minnesota. Nevada is a GOP-leaning state Kerry would like to win. The other three, especially dead-even Minnesota, voted Democratic in 2000, and Kerry can't afford to lose them.
"So much for all the talk of expanding the political map," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd.
Kerry strategist Tad Devine said the campaign had several million dollars in advertising time reserved for Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas, which he called a sign of commitment to those battlegrounds. But the ads aren't scheduled to air until October, if then. No money has been given to TV stations for the October buys.
"We're at the point of the campaign where we had to make an honest first cut, but our options are still open in all these states," Devine said.
Virginia wasn't included at all.
Kerry and the DNC spent at least $20 million trying to put those seven states in play, and the candidate logged 25 visits to them, money and time that could have gone elsewhere. Campaign political director Steve Elmendorf said the money was well spent because the states are still in play.
"You can make the case that paid media is not the only way to play. Field organizations and candidate travel also shows you're committed to the states," he said.
The most logical reason for pushing states to the second tier is that polls show Kerry trailing Bush in those states - by double digits in Missouri and Arizona, for instance.
But there were other considerations. Kerry's campaign has determined that voters in some of his targeted states will react to ads that criticize Bush late in the campaign. Thus, they'll get money late, if ever.
Reducing the map of competitive states could work against Kerry because:
_Of the 14 states put in play by Kerry and his party this month, nine were won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, three by less than 10,000 votes. That means Kerry has more turf to protect.
_If he no longer has to defend the seven GOP-leaning states, Bush may shift money into battleground states that tend to favor Democrats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, to increase pressure on Kerry.
_The GOP-leaning states that won't see advertising until October are worth 73 electoral votes. Add that to the solidly Republican states and Bush would have 217 electoral votes. Winning two of his three big targets - Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania - plus a single other state would put him over the 270 needed to win the election. That's not a simple task, but easier if he gets the seven GOP-leaning states handed to him.
Devine said Kerry is doing better in Ohio and Florida than Gore was in September 2000. Bush can't afford to lose either state.
"This is not about counting states, it's about counting electoral votes," said Devine who, for months, talked about the large number of states in play.
Kerry shouldn't worry about writing off the South. We wrote him off well before his people made it public.
I have a feeling that his billionaire backers aren't willing to risk their money betting on a losing horse.
There are other elections going on in these states, and most of the down-ticket candidates are running positive bio ads that are pleasant to watch. It makes the contrast with the Democrats' mean and nasty ones all the more jolting to the viewer.
Yes, but consider he just gave the DNC and the DCC $3 Million apiece. Someone (I can't remember who wrote this) suggested that either he has money to burn or that this was desperation money to prevent congressional losses as K is radioactive man right now.
I'm glad that Kerry wasted approximately $2.5 million and a couple of visits in the great commonwealth. Even though it was reported as such until recently, Virginia was not in play for Kerry. This proves it.
I'm guessing our liberal, tax raising, democrat governor convinced the party that they could win here. The reason we have a democrat for governor is because the Republican party top candidates ate themselves, not because the state leans to the democrats. This will be fixed next year in our off-year elections.
"So much for all the talk of expanding the political map," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd.
I love Matthew Dowd. He knows when to play smack-down and when to play rope-a-dope. We have some good strategy people in 2004. However, the most important thing, as Carville has pointed out, we have the better candidate.
I think he had to give this money to them to keep up his image as leader of the party. Kerry is cheap and the Donks are desperate. $6M sounds like peanuts in politics. Also: no campaigning Donk is endorsing Kerry. OTOH, here in WI, two GOP candidates for Finegold's seat are running ads touting that they will be allies of President Bush on social issues, taxes and WOT. Who's got the coat tails, now? < g >
If they don't add New Jersey to their "must campaign" states they're fooling themselves. Then again, that's something rats do very well.
Also, I guess opie has wrapped up North Carolina so..... hee hee hee.
Prediction: By Sept 30 this will be so over that all of the action will move to the senate races. W will start campaign in such "hotly contested" states as NC and SD. He'll be standing next to Burr and Thune when he does. But the big surprise will be when he and Arnold campaign with Jones in the Golden State. What does boxer shorts do then? Does she run from frenchie or stand with him ? Hee hee hee!
LOL
I agree-- for a "close" race in a "50/50" nation, why would W have coattails now? :)
Don't get too excited about Kerry's shrinking lead in NJ. It's now down to 4% from 20%. But Bush is still only at 39%, with a huge # of undecided and some Nadar voters thrown in there.
I think the undecided and the Nadar votes are mostly just "parked" Kerry votes.
I think you're prediction of this being over by Sept 30 is way to optimistic. I'll be happy if we're ahead by a point or two come October 31.
As a Californian who loathes Boxer I have always felt that the Republicans' secret weapons this year were (1) Arnold and (2) George Prescott Bush, the President's nephew (Jeb's son). Arnold would deliver the white blue collar folks who impulsively vote Democratic in the SF Bay and LA area, and GPB, who is incredibly handsome, looks Hispanic, and is bilingual, would deliver some Hispanic votes which are overwhelmingly Democratic.
The key is, the Republicans don't need to do this until October. The Democrats might not see it coming and will be complacent and relaxed. There will be a surge, and the panic among Democrats might be so massive, that they can't recover.
Do you think the DNC will be funding ads supporting the provision on the November ballot that would split Colorado's electoral votes? It's the sort of underhand operation they would carry out.
"Devine said Kerry is doing better in Ohio and Florida than Gore was in September 2000. Bush can't afford to lose either state."
Hogwash.
When the Senators bail, it's time to set sail.
TS
Harsh ads that are true work. That's why the SBVT ads have devestated Kerry.
Sheesh.
Don't forget to also help the Senate candidates in those battleground states plus the seats in which the GOP actually can win such as SD, SC, NC. Thune, Demint and Burr should also be aided. Then in the 14 states, not only aid the Prez but the House seats that are open. And there are about 10 open seats in those seats and others that are close in which Pubs could win.
In Northeastern PA, we are being overwhelmed with requests for "BUSH" signs..........from Democrats!!
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