Bush 48% Kerry 47% ICR Poll (9/5)

ICR ^ | 9/7/04

[finnman69]

On the heels of the Republican National Convention, President George Bush appears to have gained a two point “convention bounce,” but overall the race remains a dead heat.

The most striking result from the ICR Presidential Election Poll of September 1 – 5 is the continued shift of vote share away from Kerry and towards Bush within registered independents. Also of interest is an increased likelihood of respondents to say they are certain they are going to vote.

Overall, the race for President is still neck and neck. Based on registered voters who are certain they will vote, 48.2 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 47.3 percent for John Kerry, and 4.1 percent for others or undecided:

[finnman69]

This poll was conducted as part of ICR’s twice weekly consumer omnibus study, EXCEL. A total of 1,015 interviews were completed with adults aged 18+ from September 1 - 5, 2004. The results presented above are based on registered voters (79% of the sample) and have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

[finnman69]

In the last ICR poll they had:
45.3 percent say they will vote for George W. Bush, 48 percent for John Kerry, 2.1 percent for Ralph Nader, and 4.6 percent undecided:

[bcoffey]

"The results presented above are based on registered voters (79% of the sample)"

And the other 21% are????

[finnman69]

A 4 pt swing and a 3 point bounce

[KJacob]

And the other 21% are????

apparently just adults.

[Russ]

And the other 21% are deceased, ex-registered Democrats.

[ambrose]

Never heard of this outfit.

[Frank L]

Anything positive is better than Kerry's negative bounce.

I laughed so hard when his numbers went down after the convention.

Frank

[Bonaventure]

Is this race still a dead heat?

[finnman69]

I looked them up, ICR/Politics Now has been around since 1996 at least.

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm
http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[dwilli]

If the popular vote is close to 50/50 (1/2% either way)
GWB is re-elected by electoral vote if he carries Ohio.

[RockinRight]

Polls show anything from an 11-pt Bush lead to a 1-pt Bush lead which is a statistical tie. I figure he's really up about 7 which is what Gallup says, they've historically been most accurate.

[Casloy]

"The results presented above are based on registered voters (79% of the sample)"

And the other 21% are????

Registered nurses.

[Paul Ross]

All you need to know about this outfit, their last predictions, in 2000....

Read about our history, public studies, locations and employment > Our full-range of research designs; for marketing, branding, loyalty and more > Learn about our data collection methods, our international reach and our unique reporting tools. > See how our specialized omnibus services can benefit your organization > Worldwide: ICR is experienced in these wide-ranging industries > Access your data, and find useful links >

Publicly Released Studies

Released: Monday, September 11, 2000

Four Party Race – Leaned Vote

• Based on Likely Voters* (n=651)
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• Trend (based on Likely Voters*)

* Likely Voters are defined as those respondents who are registered to vote and are absolutely certain to vote in the November 2000 presidential election.

Summary

Democrat Al Gore increases his lead over Republican George W. Bush, giving this race a 9 point spread between the top two candidates, according to the latest ICR Presidential Election Poll. However, Gore’s lead is still not sound enough to make any valid predictions at this point. Who will emerge victorious is still anyone’s guess in this presidential campaign.

Overall

• Given a four-party race – Gore, Bush, Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, and Green Party candidate Ralph Nader – likely voters are sticking with Gore this week. Gore has increased his share of the vote by 3% (up from 44% to 47%), while Republican Bush has seen a decrease of 5% (down from 43% to 38%). The other two candidates in the race for president, Nader and Buchanan, receive 5% and 3% of the vote, respectively.
  

Party Differences

• The two front-runners still receive an overwhelming percentage of the vote from their respective parties: Gore receiving 84% among Likely Democratic Voters and Bush receiving 83% among Likely Republican Voters.
  
• However, it is important to note that Bush’s share among Likely Republican Voters has declined from our previous poll (89% to 83%) and that more of these Likely Republican Voters now say they are going to vote for the Democrat Gore (7% to 12%).
  
• Among Likely Independent Voters, the race is still up-for-grabs: Gore (38%) and Bush (36%). Ralph Nader wanes slightly among Independent Voters (down from 14% to 11%).
  

Gender Differences

• This week, male votes for Gore increased to a high of 45% (up from 41% in our two previous polls). On the contrary, male votes for Bush have decreased to a low of 40% (down from 42% in our last poll and 47% in the poll prior to that).
  
• Gore has also increased his lead among likely female voters by 3 points (from 46% to 49%) while Bush’s share of the female vote has gone down by 6% (43% to 37%).
  

Methodology

This poll was conducted as part of ICR’s twice weekly consumer omnibus study, EXCEL^sm. A total of 1,019 interviews were completed with adults aged 18+ from September 6-10, 2000. The results presented above are based on Likely Voters (64% of the sample) and have a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

International Communications Research

 

 

[LibLieSlayer]

I should believe this poll over Gallup for what reasons???

LLS

[comebacknewt]

Thanks Paul. That does make me feel better about this poll.

[Rokke]

So was their 2000 prediction Gore 47%, Bush 38%?

[tobyhill]

Another Democrat manipulated poll! The average of all polls show the President got about a 7 point bounce.

[HostileTerritory]

Excellent! Bush must be up five points in the LV totals!