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Hurricane Ivan: Now A CAT 4/Models Shift Again
NHC | 9-07-2004 | my favorite headache

Posted on 09/07/2004 5:45:54 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache

Hurricane Ivan has become a Category 4 Hurricane again! Winds over 130 mph and gusts up to 160 currently. The models have shifted the last 36 hrs like never before. My fellow Floridians might not like the 8 pm model that has just come out:



TOPICS: Announcements; News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneivan; ivan; moredoomandgloom; morerainanyone; myfavoritedramaqueen
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To: SMcDonnell

Let's hope it just remains historical data................if you know what I mean.


81 posted on 09/07/2004 6:56:31 PM PDT by Gabz (HURRAY!!!!!!!! School started today!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: My Favorite Headache
Yucatan and then New Orleans.

Just a guess.

82 posted on 09/07/2004 6:57:42 PM PDT by marshmallow
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To: SMcDonnell

There was a hurricane DOG????


83 posted on 09/07/2004 7:01:01 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
Yeah, I heard it was a real ruff one.
84 posted on 09/07/2004 7:02:03 PM PDT by SMcDonnell
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To: My Favorite Headache

Is that a long-range weather fourcats?


85 posted on 09/07/2004 7:03:24 PM PDT by AndrewC (I am a Bertrand Russell agnostic, even an atheist.</sarcasm>)
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To: Ptarmigan

"Hurricanes are unpredictable."

That is why they were always named after WOMEN!!!


86 posted on 09/07/2004 7:05:38 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Dog Gone

Notice that the 1928 hurricane didn't have a name. Wonder when they started naming them?


87 posted on 09/07/2004 7:05:57 PM PDT by Merdoug
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To: Merdoug

They didn't have time to name it. :0


88 posted on 09/07/2004 7:07:29 PM PDT by SMcDonnell
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To: CROSSHIGHWAYMAN
Cuba will take the edge off Ivan the way the Bahamas weakened Frances.

Of course, it was mainly dry air and shear that weakened Frances.

89 posted on 09/07/2004 7:10:20 PM PDT by steve86
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To: Huber

Freepmail Joe Brower about Daytona Freepers.


90 posted on 09/07/2004 7:14:04 PM PDT by TaxRelief
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To: fortheDeclaration

Yes, that was one reason why hurricanes were given female name exclusively before 1979.


91 posted on 09/07/2004 7:15:34 PM PDT by Ptarmigan (Proud rabbit hater and killer)
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To: Ptarmigan
Frances stopped and asked directions to Disney World before coming ashore. Typical female. Whereas Charley knew he was going to Tampa, didn't ask directions, and plowed into Port Charlotte by mistake.
92 posted on 09/07/2004 7:19:13 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: cyn

Spam cooked into Kraft Mac and Cheese is a truly tasty treat...


93 posted on 09/07/2004 7:19:42 PM PDT by TaxRelief
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To: Dog Gone

Dog used to be D in the phonetic alphabet.
I guess that was used to designate hurricanes at one time.
It's Delta now, as I guess everyone knows.


94 posted on 09/07/2004 7:20:39 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)
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To: Sam Cree
That seems a likely explanation.

If I ran the NHC or whomever gets to assign names to future storms, I'd be a lot more creative. How better to raise public awareness than to warn about Hurricane Gonorrhea? Hurricane Herpes?

I could go on. ;-)

95 posted on 09/07/2004 7:30:17 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: My Favorite Headache
How was your conditions there in Melbourne when ya returned MFH ? My brother is coming back tomorrow......power on , fuel stations up and running ??

Stay safe !

96 posted on 09/07/2004 7:32:31 PM PDT by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But, have a plan to kill everyone you meet. ©)
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To: Dog Gone

I would name hurricanes after famous criminals myself. Could this one hit New Orleans I wonder?


97 posted on 09/07/2004 7:33:05 PM PDT by cajungirl (no)
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To: My Favorite Headache

Still too hard to tell. The models that are now showing Ivan going north and east of the Florida coast are the same ones that as of Sunday were projecting him close to Hispaniola. Thats a mere 600 miles or so difference.....


98 posted on 09/07/2004 7:39:04 PM PDT by Uncle Fud
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To: cajungirl
It sure could. The NHC is giving itself a margin of error from Mexico to Daytona Beach for the Sunday storm position.

They just adjusted the track east from the 5 pm forecast, threatening Florida more than New Orleans. We'll see. Nobody should get too concerned in the US until the Thursday night forecast, at the earliest.

99 posted on 09/07/2004 7:45:16 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Uncle Fud
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 23

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2004

 
Ivan has continued to strengthen during the evening.  The last pass
of an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter through the eye showed a
central pressure near 950 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 129
kt at 700 mb.  The initial intensity is set to 115 kt based on the
flight-level winds and satellite intensity estimates of 115 kt from
all agencies.  It should be noted that the satellite signature of
Ivan has improved since 00z and the initial intensity may be
conservative.  The next aircraft is scheduled to arrive in Ivan
around 06z.

The initial motion is 280/15.  Ivan remains on the south side of a
strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.  Large-scale
models forecast this ridge to slowly weaken as a mid/upper-level
trough approaches it from the northwest and as an upper-level low
develops to the east.   Water vapor imagery also indicates an
upper-level low over the central and western Caribbean...but this
seeems to be retreating westward as fast or faster than the
hurricane.  The synoptic pattern should produce a westward to
west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hr or so...followed by a
more northwestward motion at a slower forward speed thereafter. 
Unfortunately...model guidance is not very consistent from run to
run at the moment.  The GFS made a huge shift to the right...from
passing west of Florida to passing 200 nm east of Florida.  The
GFDL also shifted to the right...but from a left outlier into the
middle of the guidance envelope.  The official forecast also
shifts...a little to the south early in the forecast to allow for
the current position and motion and a little to the right later in
the forecast period.  It is in best agreement with the NOGAPS.

Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally favorable for
development through the forecast period...so the intensity of Ivan
will be mainly controlled by concentric eyewall cycles...changes in
sea surface temperature...and land interaction.  An SSM/I overpass
at 0105z showed an outer eyewall starting to form...which suggest
the current intensification cycle will stop in 6-12 hr.  However...
by that time Ivan may be stronger than currently forecast.  The
hurricane will pass over some slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures through 48 hr...then reach warmer water northwest of
Jamaica after 72 hr.  Regardless of the exact ups and Downs in the
intensity...Ivan is expected to remain a strong hurricane through
the forecast period...most likely category 4 but possibly reaching
category 5 at some points.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao...as any motion south of the forecast track could bring
hurricane force winds near or over those islands. 

 
Forecaster Beven

100 posted on 09/07/2004 7:47:03 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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