Posted on 09/07/2004 5:45:54 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Ivan has become a Category 4 Hurricane again! Winds over 130 mph and gusts up to 160 currently. The models have shifted the last 36 hrs like never before. My fellow Floridians might not like the 8 pm model that has just come out:
Actually my back started to spasm and quit. Back and legs braced against the corner of the pier were the sorest. Each big fish that came over the deck was shooting milt. They were going a little crazy because it was like a 20 year tide. The whole of Treasure Island was submerged. But they were gentle swells. Little wind. Absolutely the perfect confluence of weather conditions for an epic bull red run in the pass. Have yet to see it replicated. the reason they were there in force is the flooding of the salt marsh. The eggs attached to freshly submerged salt grass. If we get a big hurricane south of us, it could happen again. Unfortunately the pass pier is down right now. A storm last year put it under. It survived a lot before that happened. Guess it was a weird storm coming in at a bad angle. Hell I was on the pier during Chantal and Jerry and on one of those I had to tell the pier guy to shut it down. 2 by 6's were bouncing up and down like typewriter keys in the middle of the pier. Not safe. I used to always make it a point ot be at the beach when the easier storms came ashore. Something about that weather that makes you feel "alive". Or maybe it was the Budweiser. Not sure.
King Ranch and my parents house. Large, large pine trees, high winds and roofs don't mix well
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU
PRINCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 66.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 25
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 08, 2004
Last fix from a reconnaissance plane earlier this morning indicated
that the pressure increased to 955 mb but flight-level winds were
still 133 knots in the northern eyewall. Since then...high
resolution visible satellite images reveal that the eye is not as
distinct as earlier but still visible. Initial intensity remains at
120 knots. Because the hurricane will have to fight some shear and
will be moving just north of the south American coast...there may
be some weakening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...the
hurricane will be over the northwestern Caribbean Sea where there
is high oceanic heat content and lower shear. So...Ivan is expected
to intensify before reaching Cuba. Neverthereless...these are
basically fluctuations in intensity and the bottom line is that
Ivan is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane.
Satellite and earlier reconnaissance fixes indicate that Ivan is
moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 knots. During
the next 24 to 48 hours...the subtropical ridge to the north of
Ivan is expected to change little...forcing Ivan to move toward the
west-northwest. Thereafter...the ridge is forecast to weaken and a
broad mid-level trough will likely become established over the Gulf
of Mexico. This pattern should move the hurricane on a northwest
and north-northwest track with a decrease in forward speed. It must
be emphasized that the forecast track beyond 72 hours is highly
uncertain since steering currents will be weak and are currently
not well-defined in the forecast models. In fact...some reliable
models bring Ivan over Florida and another reliable group move the
hurricane toward the Gulf of Mexico. There is no apparent reason to
favor one scenario over the other at this time. Therefore...the
official forecast remains near the global model consensus and
presumes that there will be enough ridging to keep the hurricane on
a northwest to north-northwest track... bringing dangerous Ivan
over western Cuba in 4 days and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
day five.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/1500z 12.7n 66.2w 120 kt
12hr VT 09/0000z 13.3n 68.3w 115 kt
24hr VT 09/1200z 14.5n 71.0w 120 kt
36hr VT 10/0000z 16.0n 73.5w 125 kt
48hr VT 10/1200z 17.5n 76.0w 125 kt near Jamaica
72hr VT 11/1200z 19.5n 79.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 12/1200z 22.5n 82.0w 125 kt over western Cuba
120hr VT 13/1200z 26.0n 84.0w 115 kt
For any of you Swamp Critteres that are interested, I have 12 acres of High ground loaded with +/- 4,000 Hardwood trees. A 10 year old home and a nice 28x32 Shop that is guarenteed to never see a Hurricane in your lifetime. :)
Only 185,000 Comes with a few extras.
Located in Mid Michigan. Great Summers!
Category 5 hurricanes were a lot more frequent in the past. It is a mystery why the frequency of these cat 5's dropped off beginning 1,100 years ago.
the mayans were using freon in their a/c's?? I give up.
Most of all I hope it doesnt hit the US.
That Labor Day hurricane of 35 was one of the worst.
I was in the eyewall of Andrew, in 92, but thought it was a cat 4. I guess there's still some controversy over that, since it blew away all the wind instruments rather quickly. Anyway, if there're less cat 5's, I can only say that it's a great thing.
This morning's models, bad as they look for FL, are a slight improvement over yesterday afternoon's, at least in terms of the outlook for So FL.
Only slight, though.
I'm curious how anyone could know the frequency of Cat 5's 1,100 years ago as opposed to today...
Interesting article.
bttt. I agree
The Red Cross and Salvation Army use amateur radio to transmit "Disaster Welfare Inquiries" into the stricken area, and back out again.
Red Cross (Indianapolis) DWI page
Salvation Army Radio page, scroll down to "Health and Welfare Information Request.
Reports of incredible devastation in Grenada.
Time to short nutmeg futures. In all seriousness, they aren't used to getting hurricanes that far south in the Caribbean, let alone Cat 3 storms.
The study I read about dealt with sand grain size in the sediment of coastal lakes. Apparently only a cat 5 can carry certain grain sizes of sand far enough to fall into these coastal lakes. I only remember Lake Shelby as one of the lakes used in the study.
Good info. Hope it helps her.
Yeah?
Time for a Cat 5 alert, please! =^..^=
the NOGAPS was the model that held the most consistency during the 72 hours prior to landfall on the east coast of FL.
FYI -- The European forecast model over it's past 6 runs (3 days) has had the storm kiss the FL keys and then run up, off the coast, toward NC. The other models are now coming in line with it's predictions
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.