The campaign of Senator John F. Kerry appears to have imploded. With almost two months left before the presidential election on Nov. 2, U.S. President George W. Bush is poised to win an election in which, given his extraordinary record of domestic and international failure, he should certainly have been defeated.

Contrary to conventional wisdom in the American media, Kerry stands on the brink of failure not because of the Republican attacks against him, but because of his own incomprehensible strategic blunders.

This is not to say that the spectacularly dishonest television campaign falsely impugning Kerry's Vietnam War record - spurred by a thinly veiled Bush campaign front group preposterously named "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" - has had no effect. Such negative campaigning, particularly when the lie being told is so massive that the public cannot imagine anyone being brazen enough to invent it out of whole cloth, has a proven record in American politics. But Democrats can, and indeed have, fought back effectively against these charges, and most voters are not particularly interested in 35-year-old Vietnam-related issues.

The brilliantly staged but vicious Republican National Convention was certainly much more impressive than the Democratic convention a few weeks earlier. It played well to the party base, but the thundering of the self-hating Democrat Senator Zell Miller, the keynote speaker, was not the stuff that turns elections.

Compared to Kerry's own strategic miscalculations, the Republicans have been a minor problem for the Democratic candidate. What really occurred during August that decisively shifted the momentum in favor of the president was Kerry's own unfathomable decision to cede to Bush the major issue on which this campaign, and the incumbent's record, will be judged: the war in Iraq.

Before August, Bush was incredibly vulnerable on Iraq. A majority of Americans considers the war to have been a mistake, resistance to the occupation is intensifying, and virtually everybody concedes that the two reasons the administration gave for the invasion - Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction and the supposed alliance between the regime of Saddam Hussein and Al-Qaeda - were based entirely on deception, or were illusory.

Hammering Bush on this ill-advised adventure must lie at the heart of any successful challenge of his record. The difficulty is that Kerry voted for the Senate resolution giving the administration the authority to use force in Iraq.

However, Kerry could have used his own vote to emphasize the degree to which the administration manipulated, exaggerated and falsified existing intelligence to misrepresent Iraq as a threat to the United States. He could have taken the issue of his vote for a war he now criticizes and, instead of allowing it to be used by Republicans as evidence of his fickleness and inconsistency, made it the centerpiece of an attack on the administration's deceptiveness or incompetence.

Kerry should have spent August repeating: "Mr. Bush, I voted for that resolution on the basis of what you and your subordinates were telling the Congress and the country. We now know that the information you gave us was false. Mr. Bush, if you knew it was false, you deliberately deceived us all. If you did not know, then you and your team are incompetent in the extreme, and you must go before you blunder your way into further disastrous and unnecessary conflicts. Mr. Bush, you are either a liar or a fool, and thousands of people have died as a consequence."

Kerry, instead of mounting this kind of vigorous offensive on the blundering in Iraq, made the fateful error of, in effect, conceding the issue entirely. On numerous occasions in August, the Democratic candidate confessed that if he knew then what he knows now, he would still have voted for the war authorization resolution. However, the coup de grace was delivered by Kerry's unqualified foreign policy spokesman James Rubin, who told the press that the candidate would have "in all probability" invaded Iraq himself. Rubin later clarified that he "never should have said the phrase 'in all probability.'"

The Kerry team has become completely entangled in its gnarled inconsistencies on Iraq, like a bull trapped in razor wire - every effort to extricate itself has only trapped it more tightly while opening fresh wounds. Unable to successfully engage Bush on the major issue of the campaign, Kerry is now going to try to shift the debate away from national security issues to a domestic agenda under the rubric: "A stronger America begins at home."

Relying on those opinion polls showing Americans are most concerned about economic issues, the Democrats have decided not to put up a serious fight over Iraq, but to try to make the election about jobs. This is cowardly, unprincipled and an almost certain recipe for defeat.

Since there will be at least two major televised debates before the November voting, Kerry will have some opportunity to climb out of the formidable hole which he has dug for himself. But given the familiar divisions between Democrats and Republicans on economic policy, and the extraordinary incoherence and contradictions of Kerry's foreign policy pronouncements, even as poor a debater as Bush ought to be able, at the very least, to hold his own.

There was a disturbing whiff of demagoguery about the Republican National Convention, but the mocking chant of "flip-flop, flip-flop, flip-flop" perfectly characterized Kerry's political self-immolation at the alter of Iraq.

THE FACTS ABOUT SENATOR JOHN KERRY (D-MA)

KERRY: DUKAKIS'S LT. GOV. WHO VOTES
LOCKSTEP WITH TED KENNEDY

On Key Votes, Kerry Voted 100% Of The Time With Senator Kennedy In 2001, 1999, 1998, 1993, 1992, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, and 1985. Over the course of his Senate career, Kerry has sided with Senator Kennedy 94% of the time for key votes.

As Michael Dukakis' Lt. Governor From 1983-1985, Kerry Supported Granting Prison Furloughs To Hundreds Of Massachusetts Inmates. Later as a U.S. Senator in 1988, he defended the program: "The furlough program in Massachusetts is tougher than the federal program." (John King, "Bush Surrogate Gets Ambushed In Dukakis Territory," The Associated Press, July 6, 1988)

KERRY CLAIMS HE'S FOR FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, BUT VOTES FOR HIGHER TAXES, AND AGAINST TAX CUTS

Kerry Has Voted Against A Balanced Budget Amendment At Least Five Times. Other fiscally irresponsible votes include at least three key votes against lowering overall spending.

Kerry Voted Against President Bush's Tax Cuts, At Least The Tenth Key Anti-Tax Relief Vote Of His Senate Career.

Kerry Voted For The Biggest Tax Increase In American History Under President Clinton.

Kerry Has A Lifetime Rating Of 26% From Citizens Against Government Waste And Is A Long-Time Supporter Of Federal Funding For Boston's "Big Dig." Former Senate Government Affairs Chairman John McCain called the project "the biggest, most costly public works project in U.S. history." The "Big Dig" was estimated to cost $2.6 billion when it was approved in 1985. The cost to date has totaled more than $13.6 billion. ("Congressional Ratings," Citizens Against Government Waste Website, www.cagw.org, Accessed January 7, 2003; Natalie M. Henry, "Senate Commerce Investigates Overspending On Boston's €˜Big Dig,'" Environment And Energy Daily, May 3, 2000)

KERRY IS EXTREME ON ABORTION, SUPPORTING FEDERAL FUNDING AND PARTIAL-BIRTH ABORTIONS

Kerry Voted At Least Three Times Against Banning Partial-Birth Abortions.

Kerry Voted To Allow Federal Funding Of Abortions And To Provide Abortion Counseling In Federally-Funded Clinics.

KERRY IN DEPTH

KERRY: DUKAKIS'S LT. GOV. WHO VOTES
LOCKSTEP WITH TED KENNEDY

Kerry's Lifetime Vote Rating From Americans For Democratic Action Is Five Points Higher Than That Of Fellow Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. While Kennedy only rates an 88 lifetime average, Kerry has a lifetime average of 93. (Americans For Democratic Action Website, www.adaction.org, Accessed December 9, 2002)

Kerry And Kennedy Had Exactly The Same Low Rating From The American Conservative Union In Both 2001 (4%) And 2000 (12%). Kerry's lifetime rating from the ACU is 5%. (American Conservation Union Website, www.acuratings.org, Accessed December 9, 2002)

Kerry Is Against The Death Penalty. "I'm opposed to the death penalty in the criminal justice system because I think it's applied unfairly . . . ." (NBC's "Meet The Press," December 1, 2002)

Kerry Is An Extreme Environmentalist Who Voted With The Activist Group, The League Of Conservation Voters, An Average Of 95% Of The Time In The Last Three Congresses. (League Of Conservation Voters Website, www.lcv.org, Accessed December 9, 2002)

Kerry Has Voted For At Least Seven Major Reductions In Defense And Military Spending Necessary For Our National Security. (S. 1438, Roll Call Vote #286: Motion agreed to 53-47: R 21-28; D 31-19, September 25, 2001; S. 1087, Roll Call Vote #397: Passed 62-35: R 48-4; D 14-31, September 5, 1995; S. 1298, Roll Call Vote #251: Adopted 50-48: R 6-36; D 44-12, September 9, 1993; S. 3114, Roll Call Vote #182: Motion Rejected 43-49: R 34-5; D 9-44, August 7, 1992; S. 2399, Roll Call Vote #56: Motion rejected 50-48: R 3-40; D 47-8, March 26, 1992; H.R. 2707, Roll Call Vote #182: Motion Rejected 28-69 R 3-39; D 25-30, September 10, 1991; S. 1352, Roll Call Vote #148: Motion agreed to 50-47: R 37-6; D 13-41, June 27, 1989)

KERRY CLAIMS HE'S FOR FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, BUT HAS A HISTORY OF VOTING FOR HIGHER TAXES AND AGAINST TAX CUTS

Kerry Called For "Fiscal Responsibility," Just Like When He Voted For The 1993 Tax Hike, The Largest In History. "All the Democrats have generally resisted the GOP proposal to make the tax cuts permanent. . . . Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry called for a return to the fiscal responsibility we gave this country in 1993 when we passed the Deficit Reduction Act.'" (Will Lester, "Top Democrats Complain About Bush Economic Plans, But Some Steer Away From Tax Debate," The Associated Press, October 15, 2002)

In His Senate Career, Kerry Has Voted Against A Balanced Budget Amendment At Least Five Times. Other fiscally irresponsible votes include at least three key votes against lowering overall spending. (S.J. Res. 1, Roll Call Vote #24: Rejected 66-34: R 55-0; D 11-34, March 4, 1997; H.J. Res. 1, Roll Call Vote #158: Rejected 64-35: R 52-1; D 12-34, June 6, 1996; H.J. Res. 1, Roll Call Vote #98: Rejected 65-35: R 51-2; D 14-33, March 2, 1995; S.J. Res. 41, Roll Call Vote #48: Rejected 63-37: R 41-3; D 22-34, March 1, 1994; S.J. Res. 225, Roll Call Vote #45: Rejected 66-34: R 43-10; D 23-24, March 25, 1986)

Kerry Voted Against President Bush's Tax Cuts, At Least The Tenth Major Anti-Tax Relief Vote Of His Senate Career. (H.R. 1836, Roll Call Vote #165: Adopted 62-38: R 50-0; D 12-38, May 23, 2001; H. Con. Res. 83, Roll Call Vote #69: Adopted 53-47: R 4-46; D 49-1, April 4, 2001; S. 1429, Roll Call Vote #247: Passed 57-43: R 52-2; D 4-41; I 1-0, July 30, 1999; H.R. 2646, Roll Call Vote #169: Adopted 59-36: R 51-2; D 8-34, June 24, 1998; H.R. 2646, Roll Call Vote #288: Rejected 56-41: R 54-1; D 2-40, October 30, 1997; H. Con. Res. 84, Roll Call Vote #92: Adopted 78-22: R 41-14; D 37-8, May 23, 1997; S. 1028, Roll Call Vote #72: Adopted 52-46: R 5-46; D 47-0, April 18, 1996; H.R. 2264, Roll Call Vote #190: Passed 50-49: R 0-43; D 49-6, June 25, 1993; H. Con. Res. 64, Roll Call Vote #83: Adopted 54-45: R 0-43; D 54-2, March 25, 1993; H.R. 3628, Roll Call Vote #298: Rejected 51-47 (needed 2/3 majority): R 45-0; D 6-47, November 15, 1989)

In September 2001, Kerry Said We Should Not Raise Taxes In An Economic Downturn. "The first priority is the economy of our nation. And when you have a downturn in the economy, the last thing you do is raise taxes or cut spending. We shouldn't do either. We need to maintain a course that hopefully will stimulate the economy. . . . No, we should not raise taxes, but we have to put everything on the table to take a look at why we have this structural problem today. . . . you don't want to raise taxes." (NBC's "Meet The Press," September 2, 2001)

In April 2002, Kerry Said He Wanted A Larger Tax Cut And Was "Not In Favor Of" A Repeal. CNN's Tucker Carlson: "Senator Kerry, . . . [many Democrats] [g]et a lot of political mileage out of criticizing [President Bush's tax cut], but nobody has the courage to say repeal it. Are you for repealing it?" Kerry: "It's not a question of courage. . . . And it's not an issue right now. We passed appropriately a tax cut as a stimulus, some $40 billion. Many of us thought it should have even maybe been a little bit larger this last year . . . . [T]he next tax cut doesn't take effect until 2004. If we can grow the economy enough between now and then, if we have sensible policies in place and make good choices, who knows what our choices will be. So it's simply not a ripe issue right now. And I'm not in favor of turning around today and repealing it." (CNN

's "Crossfire," April 16, 2002)

In December 2002, Kerry Flip-Flopped. NBC's Tim Russert: "Senator . . . should we freeze or roll back the Bush tax cut?" Kerry: "Well, I wouldn't take away from people who've already been given their tax cut . . . . What I would not do is give any new Bush tax cuts. . . ." Russert: "So the tax cut that's scheduled to be implemented in the coming years . . . ." Kerry: "No new tax cut under the Bush plan. . . . It doesn't make economic sense." Russert: "Now, this is a change, because let me show you what you said in September of 2001 when I asked you the very same question." (NBC

's "Meet The Press," December 1, 2002)

Kerry Voted At Least Five Times To Raid The Social Security Trust Fund. (H.R. 2014, Roll Call Vote #211: Conference Report Agreed To 92-8: R 55-0; D 37-8, July 31, 1997; H.R. 2264, Roll Call Vote #247: Conference Report Agreed To 50-50, With Vice President Gore Voting Yea: R 0-44; D 50-6, August 6, 1993; H.Con.Res. 268, Roll Call Vote #167: Conference Report Agreed To 58-29: R 21-20; D 37-9, June 6, 1988; H.R. 3545, Roll Call Vote #419: Conference Report Agreed To 61-28: R 18-23; D 43-5, December 21, 1987; H.R. 3128, Roll Call Vote #379: Conference Report Agreed To 78-1: R 40-1; D 38-0, December 19, 1985)

KERRY IS EXTREME ON ABORTION, SUPPORTING FEDERAL FUNDING OF ABORTIONS AND PARTIAL-BIRTH ABORTIONS

Kerry Voted At Least Three Times Against Banning Partial-Birth Abortions. (H.R. 1833, Roll Call Vote #596: Adopted 54-44: R 45-8; D 9-36, December 7, 1995; H.R. 1833, Roll Call Vote #301: Veto Override Rejected 57-41: R 45-6; D 12-35, September 26, 1996; H.R. 1122, Roll Call Vote #277: Veto Override Rejected 64-36: R 51-4; D 13-32, September 18, 1998)

Kerry Voted To Allow Federal Funding Of Abortions And To Provide Abortion Counseling In Federally-Funded Clinics. (H.R. 2518, Roll Call Vote #290: Rejected 40-59: R 6-38; D 34-21, September 28, 1993; S. 323, Roll Call Vote #254: Passed 73-26: R 20-23; D 53-3, October 1, 1992)

Kerry Has Voted Against Requiring Parental Notification For Minors' Abortions. (H.R. 5257, Roll Call Vote #266: Motion Rejected 48-48: R 8-34; D 40-14, October 12, 1990)

While Kerry Earns A 0% Rating From The National Right To Life Committee, His National Abortion And Reproductive Rights League Rating Is Consistently 100%. (Vote Smart Interest Group Ratings, www.vote-smart.org, Accessed December 6, 2002)

AT ODDS WITH FELLOW DEMOCRATS

On Abortion

Kerry Disagrees With Gephardt On Federal Funding Of Abortions. Kerry voted against a provision to prohibit the use of federal funds for abortions except in cases of rape, incest or threat to the mother's life, but Gephardt voted in favor of the provision. (H.R. 2518, Senate Roll Call Vote #290: Rejected 40-59: R 6-38; D 34-21, September 28, 1993; Amdt. to H.R. 2518, House Roll Call Vote #309: Adopted 256-171: R 157-16; D 99-154, June 30, 1993)

Kerry Disagrees With Gephardt On Banning Partial-Birth Abortions. Kerry has voted three times against banning partial-birth abortion procedures, while Gephardt supports the ban. (H.R. 1833, Roll Call Vote #596: Adopted 54-44: R 45-8; D 9-36, December 7, 1995; H.R. 1833, Roll Call Vote #301: Veto Override Rejected 57-41: R 45-6; D 12-35, September 26, 1996; H.R. 1122, Roll Call Vote #277: Veto Override Rejected 64-36: R 51-4; D 13-32, September 18, 1998; David Kranz, "Abortion Foes Ask Daschle For Vote," [Sioux Falls, SD]Argus Leader, August 28, 2002; Jo Mannies, "Gephardt's Challenger Offers A Clear, And Stark, Choice," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, October 25, 1998)

On Gay Marriage

Kerry Disagrees With Lieberman And Gephardt On Recognition Of Civil Unions. Kerry voted against the "Defense of Marriage Act," while Lieberman and Gephardt voted in favor of it. (H.R. 3396, House Roll Call Vote #316: Passed 342-67: R 224-1; D 118-65, July 12, 1996; H.R. 3396, Senate Roll Call Vote #280: Passed 85-14: R 53-0; D 32-14, September 10, 1996)

On The 1991 Gulf War

Kerry Disagreed With Lieberman On The 1991 Persian Gulf War. Unlike his Senate colleague, Joe Lieberman, Kerry voted against the Persian Gulf War. (S.J. Res. 2, Roll Call Vote #2: Passed 52-47: R 42-2; D 10-45, January 12, 1991)

On Trade Promotion Authority

Kerry Disagrees With Edwards And Gephardt On Trade Promotion Authority. Kerry voted for trade promotion authority, but Edwards and Gephardt voted against it. (H.R. 3009, Senate Roll Call Vote #207: Adopted (thus cleared for the president) 64-34: R 43-5; D 20-29; I 1-0, August 1, 2002; H.R. 3009, House Roll Call Vote #370: Passed 215-212: R 190-27; D 25-183; I 0-2, July 27, 2002)

On Corporate Responsibility

Kerry Disagrees With Gephardt On Shareholders' Rights. In 1995, Kerry voted "to make it harder for shareholders to file suits against chief executives," while Gephardt voted against the legislation and "has supported virtually every effort in recent years to crack down on corporations . . . ." (Jim VandeHei, "Watts Offers Parting Advice To GOP Leaders," The Washington Post, July 15, 2002)

KERRY'S KEY VOTES

107^th Congress, 2001 Senate Votes

Against The Bush Tax Cut: Kerry voted against a $1.35 trillion tax cut package to reduce income-tax rates, alleviate the

"marriage penalty" and gradually repeal the estate tax. (H.R. 1836, Roll Call Vote #165: Adopted 62-38: R 50-0; D 12-38, May 23, 2001)

For Reducing Size Of The Tax Cut: Kerry voted to reduce Bush's proposed tax cut ceiling by $448 billion over 10 years. (H. Con. Res. 83, Roll Call Vote #69: Adopted 53-47: R 4-46; D 49-1, April 4, 2001)

Against Ashcroft Nomination: Kerry voted against confirming John Ashcroft to be Attorney General. (Roll Call Vote #8: Confirmed 58-42: R 50-0; D 8-42, February 1, 2001)

106^th Congress, 1999-2000 Senate Votes

Against Genetic Privacy: Kerry voted against approving a GOP plan to restrict use of genetic information by health insurers. (Amendment To H.R. 4577, Roll Call Vote #165: Amendment Passed 58-40: R 55-0; D 3-40, June 29, 2000)

For Expanding Hate Crime Protections: Kerry voted to include gender, sexual orientation and disability in federal hate crime protections. (Amendment To S. 2549, Roll Call Vote #136: Amendment Passed 57-42: R 13-41; D 44-1, June 20, 2000)

Against Reducing Taxes: Kerry voted against reducing federal taxes by $792 billion over 10 years. (S. 1429, Roll Call Vote #247: Passed 57-43: R 53-2; D 4-41, July 30, 1999)

105^th Congress, 1997-98 Senate Votes

Against Banning Partial-Birth Abortion: Kerry voted against a ban on "partial-birth" abortions. (H.R. 1122, Roll Call Vote #277: Rejected 64-36: R 51-4; D 13-32, September 18, 1998)

Against Banning Cloning: Kerry voted against allowing vote to ban human cloning. (S. 1601, Roll Call Vote #10: Cloture Motion Rejected 42-54: R 42-12; D 0-42, February 11, 1998)

Against Educational Savings Accounts: Kerry voted against allowing a vote to create educational savings accounts. (H.R. 2646, Roll Call Vote #288: Cloture Motion Rejected 56-41: R 54-1; D 2-40, October 30, 1997)

Against Fiscally Responsible Budget: Kerry voted against approving a GOP budget to cut spending and taxes. (H. Con. Res. 84, Roll Call Vote #92: Adopted 78-22: R 41-14; D 37-8, May 23, 1997)

Against Balanced-Budget Amendment: Kerry voted against approving a balanced-budget constitutional amendment. (S.J. Res. 1, Roll Call Vote #24: Rejected 66-34: R 55-0; D 11-34, March 4, 1997)

104^th Congress, 1995-96 Senate Votes

Against Balancing The Budget: Kerry voted against a bipartisan plan to balance the budget in seven years. (S. Con. Res. 57, Roll Call Vote #150: Rejected 46-53: R 22-30; D 24-23, May 23, 1996)

Against Tort Reform: Kerry voted against allowing a vote to approve a cap on punitive damages in product liability cases. (H.R. 956, Roll Call Vote #152: Rejected 47-52: R 45-9; D 2-43, May 4, 1995)

103^rd Congress, 1993-94 Senate Votes

Against Spending Reductions: Kerry voted to kill an amendment to reduce budget spending by $94 billion. (H.R. 3759, Roll Call Vote #35: Motion To Table Adopted 65-31: R 23-19; D 42-12, February 9, 1994)

For The Largest Tax Increase In American History: Kerry voted to pass Clinton's budget that raised taxes and cut spending. (H.R. 2264, Roll Call Vote #247: Adopted 51-50: R 0-44; D 50-6, With Vice President Gore Voting "Yea," August 6, 1993)

102^nd Congress, 1991-92 Senate Votes

Against Stopping Missile Defense Spending Cuts: Kerry voted against a motion to kill an amendment that proposed deeper cuts in SDI spending. (S. 3114, Roll Call Vote #182: Motion To Table Rejected 43-49: R 34-5; D 9-44, August 7, 1992)

Against School Choice: Kerry voted against approving a school-choice pilot program. (S. 2, Roll Call Vote #5: Rejected 36-57: R 33-6; D 3-51, January 23, 1992)

Against Thomas Nomination: Kerry voted against confirming Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. (Roll Call Vote #220: Confirmed 52-48: R 41-2; D 11-46, October 15, 1991)

For Defense Spending Reductions: Kerry voted to transfer $3.1 billion to domestic programs from Defense department accounts. (H.R. 2707, Roll Call Vote #182: Motion Rejected 28-69 R 3-39; D 25-30, September 10, 1991)

Against Persian Gulf War: Kerry voted against authorizing the use of force in the Persian Gulf. (S.J. Res. 2, Roll Call Vote #2: Passed 52-47: R 42-2; D 10-45, January 12, 1991)

101^st Congress, 1989-90 Senate Votes

Against Flag Burning Amendment: Kerry voted against a constitutional amendment on flag desecration. (S.J. Res. 332, Roll Call Vote #128: Rejected 58-42: R 38-7; D 20-35, June 26, 1990)

Against Parental Notification For Minors' Abortions: Kerry voted to kill an amendment requiring parental notice for minors' abortions. (H.R. 5257, Roll Call Vote #266: Motion To Table Rejected 48-48: R 8-34; D 40-14, October 12, 1990)

Against Considering A Capitol Gains Tax Cut: Kerry voted against allowing a vote on a capital gains tax cut. (H.R. 3628, Roll Call Vote #295: Motion To Table Rejected 51-47 (Needed 2/3 Majority): R 45-0; D 6-47, November 14, 1989)

100^th Congress, 1987-88 Senate Votes

Against Death Penalty For Drug-Related Murders: Kerry voted against approving the death penalty for drug-related murders. (S. 2455, Roll Call Vote #175: Passed 65-29: R 37-6; D 28-23, June 10, 1988)

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Kerry Voted To Allow Federal Funding Of Abortions And To Provide Abortion Counseling In Federally-Funded Clinics. (H.R. 2518, Roll Call Vote #290: Rejected 40-59: R 6-38; D 34-21, September 28, 1993; S. 323, Roll Call Vote #254: Passed 73-26: R 20-23; D 53-3, October 1, 1992)

More "aid and comfort"