A 7pt lead reminds me - I predicted in February on my blog http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com/ and on FR ... that bush would win by 8 points. See:
http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com/2004_02_01_freedomstruth_archive.html
IN FEBRUARY 2004, I PREDICTED:
1) Kerry/Edwards (Edwards was picked in July)
2) Estimated Nov vote ... 53%-47% to 56%-44%, depending on the strength of the campaigns. (given shaky Kerry campaign, we are at the upper end of that).
3) I said: "History will judge the US kindly on the liberation of Iraq. All this is true, but this is not what the American people are hearing right now. Bush will have to make his case, but of course the American people (the 60% not hardened against Bush) will listen.
If he does, then the question "Who is best fit to win the war on terror?" has an easy answer: Bush."
ROVE DID WHAT WAS NEEDED TO REMIND PEOPLE THAT THIS IS A KEY QUESTION - GOP DID A GREAT JOB OF THE CONVENTION.
4) Economy is still dragging Bush down a bit, but shouldnt. At 5.4%, unemployment is down a full point from last year.
If Bush wins back on that issue, he gains another 4-6pts.
I think the polls are being a shade favorable to Bush right now ... dont go manic if they settle back to 3-5 pt Bush lead. that is what convention bounces do - they pull back.
Dont assume he leads by 8pts. Think he leads by 1 pt and your efforts are needed to help Bush win.
As of now, a lead is a lead and trailing is trailing.
I still predict a Bush 8pt victory, but campaigns still matter, and anything from slight Kerry victory to Bush 15 pt blowout are possible, even today, depending on events, scandals (Kitty Kelly, or its backlash), and debates.
I don't predict the future...but I feel extremely safe in saying outright that Kitty Kelly will have absolutely no impact on this election.
I don't think Kitty Kelly's trash is going to go anywhere. I know. Work like Hell. But, still, I feel optimistic.