Posted on 09/06/2004 9:37:01 AM PDT by crushelits
To begin, I promise I was thinking about the Newsweek poll before I saw CrushKerry’s warning to watch out for the oversampling of Republicans. But I think that point is worth examining further.
As CrushKerry observed, GOP respondents outweighed Democratic respondents in the poll, 374 to 303. With 300 Independents noted,that works out to 38.3% Republicans, 31.0% Democrats, and 30.7% Independents of the 977 total from the three. But the Newsweek poll states that 1,188 respondents were polled, with 1,088 Registered voters. And while the press release takes 20 pages to print and read, Newsweek doesn’t say, exactly, how those remaining 111 to 211 respondents breakdown. Also, I took the time to break down the respondents’ percentages: If the Rep/Dem/Ind response was unweighted, Bush would have led Kerry in the poll 58.0% to 42.0%, a sixteen-point lead, not eleven. So, while they don’t say exactly how they weighted their poll, Newsweek did weight the poll to balance things more towards the Democrats. In other words, you should consider deeper issues before accepting or rejecting a statement, whether it’s news you dislike, or news you do like.
I am one of those boring people who like to dig into polls, to find out what is driving the headline numbers. And there are a number of very interesting details, which combaine to present a compelling picture. First, of course, we should recall the First off, Newsweek noted that the interviews took place both Thursday and Friday. Thursday respondents preferred Bush to Kerry, 49% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 5% undecided. On Friday, those respondents chose Bush 54% to Kerry’s 38%, with 4% for Nader and 4% undecided. That means that Bush’s speech gained Bush support, and did so directly at the cost to Kerry’s numbers. Kerry’s speech did not help him; Bush’s speech clearly did.
Next, let’s look at those party numbers. My overall demographics before the convention showed Bush taking 88.5% support of Republicans this summer, and 89.7% just before the convention. Newsweek shows 94% of Republicans support President Bush, the highest concentration of support by either major party this election campaign.
As for Independents, whose support is the primary goal of all major candidates according to the Mainstream Media? Over the summer, Kerry has enjoyed a 43.7% to 39.5% advantage of Independent voter support over President NewswBush, and in polls taken just before the GOP Convention, Kerry was ahead 44.0% to 39.8%. The Newsweek poll shows Independents support President Bush over John Kerry, 45% to 40%. This represents a major shift in the balance of this race; if Independents have really switched over to President Bush, John Kerry may not only be fully behind by a double-digit margin, it shows a trend that Kerry must fear above all else. This is the single most intriguing element to watch in the next few polls.
Well, at least Kerry can count on his Democrats, right? Over the summer, 85.0% of Democrats aupport Kerry, and 9.5% support President Bush. Just before the GOP Convention, Kerry held 85.0% of the Democrat support, to 10.3% for President Bush. The Newsweek poll now shows only 82% of Democrats plan to vote for Kerry, against 14% who will vote to re-elect President Bush. From what I have read, this actually represents not a random event, but a growing TREND. I don’t think it will continue, though. First off, Kerry’s new attack ads would seem to be most effective with people who already hate President Bush, and that should limit how far the Democrat vote for Kerry will d rop. But the need for Kerry to stem the bleeding in his foundation, illustrates just how badly damaged Kerry’s campaign has been.
The Newsweek demographics don’t get prettier for Kerry as we read on. Men have always supported President Bush over John Kerry, but by an average of 49.8% to 42.2%. Newsweek showed Bush ahead 54% to 39% in this category, another significant jump.
What about women? Kerry was ahead by an average of 48.6% to 40.5% this summer, and just before the convention, Kerry was ahead 48.7% to Bush’s 43.0%. Newsweek now shows women prefer President Bush to John Kerry, 50% to 43%, a 12-point swing! It seems, those people who figured Laura Bush for only a marginal value in this election, figured wrong.
Newsweek does not show the breakdown of minority votes, but it does show that while John Kerry owns a 56% to 34% advantage in their poll for this category, that is substantially better for President Bush than he is supposed to own among minorities. In 2000, for comparison, George W. Bush took 23.3% of the non-white vote, so this poll represents an 11-point improvement for Dubya among minorities.
In a category not previously noted in most polls, the Newsweek poll shows that "military households" prefer President Bush to John Kerry by a 58% to 36% margin. This may be taken as you choose, but it is distinctly bad for the challenger.
All in all, then, while we may want to consider the weighting of the poll, what the Newsweek poll shows, is broad-based support for the President, improving in every category. Only two conclusions can be reached from this poll: Either both TIME and Newsweek magazines are completely wrong in their poll research, in every sector, or the GOP Convention was extremely successful for George W. Bush.
As before, when I have specific demographics from a reasonable number of sources, I will publish more specific results in terms of a ‘bounce’, as I did with the Democrats’ convention. But this, beyond dispute, is a very strong first indicator for the President.
The convention was extremely successful for Bush.
To each his own..If you want to spend that much time analyzing all this poll stuff....go to it...but there is
one thing you have to remember..getting out the vote,,and
Karl Rove..is more into that than anyone....All the polls
will be bouncing all over the plate (like the Kerry pitch
at the ballgame)....Keep a focus and get the ball over the plate like President Bush with his pitch...baseball and
the Republican convention...Tip: Contact any relatives,
friends,even enemies, in battleground states...as former
Ohioan..that's my MO now and up to Nov. 2nd. Jake
I have never seen so much analysis over a single poll before.
Hmmm...very interesting...Thank you! WORK, WORK, WORK to get W reelected!! ON TO VICTORY!
That assumes the proportion of Republicans to Democrats was the same both nights. Would not necessarily be true if there were more Republicans on Friday.
Has anybody dug into Rasmussen polling the same way? I was wondering why they got no bounce out of their numbers.
Rasmussen only makes his internals available to paying subscribers, and they are not allowed to republish them.
Probably the most amazing stat for me is how 36% of military households can support Kerry according to this poll. They are either clueless and believe the Kerry propaganda, or have relatives in Iraq and want them back so they think Kerry will get them back sooner. It's probably some of all the above but the most liberal Senator from Mass. is not going to support the military and doesn't deserve ANY support from military families.
How can Rasmussen show NO bounce.
I've talked to Dem's here and even they were impressed by GW.
This is nonsense. Gore won women by like 8 pts, Clinton by 14. If Bush has a 7 pt lead he will win well over 400 electoral votes.
"This is nonsense. Gore won women by like 8 pts, Clinton by 14. If Bush has a 7 pt lead he will win well over 400 electoral votes."
I have no statistical basis for disputing your conclusion.
However, the Republican Convention was strong on real adult grown-up men, who are confident and intelligent and capable of taking charge. Aren't afraid to take action. Aren't afraid of the verbal abuse they get for so doing.
It is VERY refreshing. Maybe having an actual comparison between real men and girlie men is having an effect on women voters . . . ??
bump
Using a static turnout model has more flaws than using a predictive dynamic one. The chances that this years turnout is the same as 2000 is probably 0, zero, nada. Depending on the excitement that a candidate can generate, his parties turnout will fluctuate. A poll that attempts to capture that excitement is likely more accurate, IN CURRENT TIME", than one that uses historical turnout from the last election.
Don't forget the very impressive performance (and not much talked about either) of the 9/11 women. They were spectacular. I would like to see and hear much more from them.
Don't try to tell this to POA2 and his ilk. They all think Bush is doomed.
Rassmussen has an answer on his website. He says that Bush is up four to six points. The reason his polling data shows it closer is abnormally high polling for Kerry on Saturday. Take that one day out and he would be at least four points up. He also disputes the Time and Newsweek because of their overpolling of Republicans.
"of the 9/11 women"
My Dad always chided us girls not to be sissies or panty-waists, either. ;)
(We were expected to hold our own with a pitchfork; or a tractor; etc.)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.