Please explain why New York is only a 7% chance of a Bush win when they have had a Republican governor for 10 years. New York City, the most liberal area of the state, has had a Republican mayor for many years. A post-911 New York will have a stronger Republican slant this year over previous years, due to traditional Dems voting the War on Terror issue above other concerns-- the 'Koch Effect.' If this has not been factored into these figures, it should be.