LABOR DAY POLLS in ELECTIONS OVER PAST 50 YEARS

AP/abilene2000.com ^ | September 1, 2000 | AP

[onyx]

A lot HAS happened.
Kerry can only win if WE stay home.
NOT going to happen.

[Mannaggia l'America]

Carter lost in '80 after the 2nd debate, as I recall. Are you better off than you were 4 years ago??

Carter only debated with Reagan once, very late in the campaign (Oct 28). (Reagan debated RINO John Anderson who was running as an independent in September.)

Reagan was great in the Carter debate - the "4 years ago" and the "there you go again" lines were most remembered, but he trounced Carter throughout in my opinion. I'm sure it had a lot to do with Reagan picking up a lot of undecideds (i.e. the "Reagan Democrats") at the end.

[chaosagent]

Post #60 has it about right.

[mlbford2]

~~It could be close, or it could be a blowout~~

Are you sure you really want to go out on that limb. That takes guts.

[Salvation]

**1948

— Thomas Dewey led Harry Truman 47 percent to 39 percent in early September. Truman won, 50 percent to 45 percent.**

Only one that didn't follow the pattern.

[Captain Peter Blood]

Okay all you people out there wondering about Watergate, Nixon had nothing to do with it.
Read the book "Silent Coup: The Removal of a President" and you will learn more about Watergate and what really went on, clue, John Dean was a lot more involved than has ever been reported for motives of his own.

[speedy]

I will happily believe any negative stories about John Dean. A snake of Carville-like morality.

[kesg]

Hmm...the one historical trend I'm seeing here is that the numbers don't change too much from the Labor Day poll to the election results -- suggesting that most people make up their mind by Labor Day.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

on Labor Day... Americans start paying attention to the Presidential races.

Then why doesn't anything that happens after Labor Day have any impact on the outcome? It looks like all minds are made up *BY* Labor Day. Volatility and shrinking of undecideds in the polls is evidence of people paying attention and not the reverse. By September, the few undecideds that are left apparently don't matter to the outcome. I think someone, that is the media, doesn't want to let it out that anyone was paying attention before because they want to hold you through October.

[writer33]

I meant really focus. And there aren't enough undecideds out there to influence any presidential race at anytime. Period. This is a media myth.

But it is common knowledge that races are geared up after Labor Day. And polls are always a reflection of media coverage at the time. The numbers change as campaigns change. That's why.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

I predict it will be a 269-269 tie. Scalia will recuse himself. The House will go 25-25 and the Senate will deadlock as well through January 20. The cabinet will have already resigned and Bush and Kerry will settle it with a thumb wrestling match on the inauguration stand.

[ConservativeStLouisGuy]

Good find! Thanks for posting this timely info!

[lancer]

Thanks for the history. I don't remember the '36 election, but almost!