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Newsweek poll internals: BUSH LEADS KERRY 47-44 IN BLUE DEMOCRAT STATES
Newsweek ^ | September 4, 2004

Posted on 09/04/2004 10:43:07 AM PDT by Nascardude

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To: Nakatu X
Hummm? Well pretty cheesy polling. I'm not a poller but I do know lots about list selection and rejection-selection discrimination. I guess there is something technical about polling I don't understand. I guess they could use a good DB analyst.
41 posted on 09/04/2004 11:10:55 AM PDT by WHBates
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To: WHBates
I'm not arguing here but what is you theory as to why Newsweek would do this.

I believe that this occurs because they set out to make a certain number of "successful" phone calls. They ask the party affiliation of each. It just happens that there were more Republicans than Democrats in those "successful" calls.

Since the registration numbers are nearly equal between D's and R's, one would expect closer numbers in a random sample. They do not intentionally set out to oversample one party over another.

I'm not a statistician but I would assume that there is some reasonable way to "normalize" the results randomly (a la Zogby's "special sauce"). Whether or not they did this, I don't know.

42 posted on 09/04/2004 11:11:30 AM PDT by jackbill
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To: Nascardude

"The President has had a very good convention following a good week where he also dominated the news with his own message: leadership, strength, decisiveness," says pollster John Zogby. "The President has widened his lead in the Red States and tightened things up considerably in the Blue States. For the first time in months he now leads among Independents and Catholics."

Science Christian Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/earlyed/early_usa0903.htm


43 posted on 09/04/2004 11:11:59 AM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: Nascardude

Its a "Mad Mad Mad World" It's there Right under the big W I tell Ya, the landslide is right under the big W !!


44 posted on 09/04/2004 11:12:18 AM PDT by Iberian
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To: Nascardude
This is very great not only for America but for all the world! We need George W. Bush! You Americans have a difficult job this time: You have to decide the leader of the world. You have to do the right choice and the right choice is George W. Bush! Make the world safer! Italy is with you to stand to say FOUR MORE YEARS!
... Kerry who?
45 posted on 09/04/2004 11:12:21 AM PDT by an italian
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To: megatherium

Did anybody notice the 34% of 'non-white' voters for Bush? If true, this is a death knell for the Democrats for decades to come.


46 posted on 09/04/2004 11:13:02 AM PDT by LisaFab
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To: Nascardude

BTTT!


47 posted on 09/04/2004 11:13:06 AM PDT by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: All

REPUBLICANS OVERSAMPLED: NEWSWEEK TRYING TO LEAD WITH A HEADLINE NEXT POLLING CYCLE OF "SHOCKING BUSH FALL AFTER HUGE LEAD..."

This poll is BS.


48 posted on 09/04/2004 11:13:26 AM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: NewMediaFan
Kerry should spend all his $45 million in one state, like Vermont, to avoid a total sweep.

This would almost certainly backfire on John F. Kerry. The more people see of him, the less likely they are to vote for him. If he could run as "someone other than Bush", and never present his image on TV, he would stand a chance, especially in states like VT. But, he can't. His ads only remind people of his essential lack of substance and of the gulf of trust between him and W.

49 posted on 09/04/2004 11:13:34 AM PDT by Moosilauke
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To: nwrep

>>Republicans have been ridiculously oversampled.

You might be right but if the Democrats are as demoralized on election day as they are today, these proportions might be pretty predictive. If Bush is clearly ahead on election day, I expect a very low Democrat turnout. Low enough in fact to seriously threaten a couple of otherwise safe Democrat Senate seats (such as Murray in Washington and Reid in Nevada).


50 posted on 09/04/2004 11:13:45 AM PDT by CommerceComet
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To: nwrep
Again, with all due respect, this poll is garbage.

True, but Bush may be doing very very well in California at this point. Do I want him to spend any money there? No. But he's probably tied there currently, though Kerry will pull back into the lead as the bounce subsides a bit.

51 posted on 09/04/2004 11:15:49 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (All that Botox has messed up his mind)
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To: Nascardude
This can't be true, can it? Did we keep hearing Bush is having BIG deficit in women support???
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
    Three-Way Trial Heat
                          Total Bush  Total Kerry  Total Nader   Undec./
                           /Cheney     /Edwards     /Camejo      Other
    Current Total             52           41            3         4      =100
    Thursday interviews       49           43            3         5      =100
    Friday interviews         54           38            4         4      =100
    Republicans               94            4            1         1      =100
    Democrats                 14           82            1         3      =100
    Independents              45           40            9         6      =100
    Men                       54           39            4         3      =100
    Women                     50           43            2         5      =100
    18-29                     45           45            9         1      =100
    30-49                     56           37            3         4      =100
    50+                       50           44            1         5      =100
    Southern White            66           30            1         3      =100
    Non-Southern White        51           41            4         4      =100
    Non-White                 34           56            4         6      =100
    Military households       58           36            2         4      =100
    Non-military households   48           43            4         5      =100
    Republican states         56           37            2         5      =100
    Swing states              51           42            3         4      =100
    Democratic states         47           44            5         4      =100

52 posted on 09/04/2004 11:17:07 AM PDT by Toidylop
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To: HawkeyeLonewolf
I doubt Mass will mature this time around, but I bet California will :)

I sincerely hope you're right, but I'm thinking we blew our once-per-generation burst of good sense when we got rid of Gray Davis.
53 posted on 09/04/2004 11:17:23 AM PDT by HollywoodRepublican (Not the only one, but it's really close.)
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To: jackbill

Though the race could hardly be statistically closer, a new poll by Zogby International indicates a likely convention "bounce" for the Republican ticket. The poll of likely voters taken during the GOP gathering in New York gives Bush-Cheney a two-point lead over Kerry-Edwards (46-44).

http://www.csmonitor.com/earlyed/early_usa0903.htm


54 posted on 09/04/2004 11:17:33 AM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: putupjob

He looked like looney the other night. ""

Did you get to see it all? I don't have Direct Tv, etc.

Many comments here say that he was DRUNK or on meds of some kind. What do you think? Drunk?


55 posted on 09/04/2004 11:21:10 AM PDT by ridesthemiles (ridesthemiles)
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To: The Citizen Soldier

There was something yesterday on FR and he explained that the breakdown is about 33 persent etc. But your statement was republicans were over sampled.

I see if I can find the link.


56 posted on 09/04/2004 11:21:32 AM PDT by stockpirate ("Kerry, backed by, supported by, lead by, funded by, admired by, COMMUNISTS!" It's about VVAW)
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To: jackbill

So you believe that the limit was successful calls? I'll accept that, but do you think that it is a cost issue? Again I'm no statistician either but that seems to be a strange limit. However, I understand that there many be a valid reason for this criteria.


57 posted on 09/04/2004 11:21:34 AM PDT by WHBates
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To: HawkeyeLonewolf

I live in MA and we keep a boat in a marina on the South Shore. All of our dockmates are hardworking people and they almost exclusively MA born. My husband and I are transplants. I have been amazed at the support for President Bush among these people. The most interesting thing to me is that the few ,who appear to be Democrats, almost seem ashamed to let the rest know. They remain very quiet in all discussions political while the Republicans are all "in your face" proud.


58 posted on 09/04/2004 11:23:44 AM PDT by surrey
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To: The Citizen Soldier

Here is the link that I mentioned;

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1206833/posts


59 posted on 09/04/2004 11:24:29 AM PDT by stockpirate ("Kerry, backed by, supported by, lead by, funded by, admired by, COMMUNISTS!" It's about VVAW)
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To: stockpirate

"27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift Boat Ads"

Yes, and
27% of Registered voters never vote.

27% of Registered voters think Michael Moore makes documentary films.

27% of Registered voters think Bush planned 9-11.


60 posted on 09/04/2004 11:25:27 AM PDT by edwin hubble
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