[TheyConvictedOglethorpe]

How does a survey provide accurate numbers for total jobs created? As a manufacturer, I've employed 14 folks for as many years. Demand is so great, my backlog of orders so huge, I've had to hire two men in July and another in August. These are permanent, full time positions. Having never been surveyed, these numbers won't be known until I file quarterly payroll tax reports at the end of October.

A firm your size probably wouldn't be surveyed. That's one of the reasons for the growing gap between the establishment and household surveys. A lot of the growth in employment is in small firms and start-ups.

IIRC, the Labor Department does use the payroll tax filings as a source of information when they do the annual benchmark revision to the establishment data.

[Quilla]

Thank you kindly for your response.

[AFPhys]

That's one of the reasons for the growing gap between the establishment and household surveys. A lot of the growth in employment is in small firms and start-ups.

Precisely. The newer technology - completely computerized equipment that requires a much smaller workforce - is allowing much smaller competitive firms. That is really throwing off the employment numbers, and a surprisingly large number of analysts don't seem to comprehend this. In fact, I've not heard even Greenspan speak to this issue.