Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

Forecaster Avila has been putting in long days these last few.........

361 posted on 09/03/2004 4:44:41 PM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace (Michael <a href = "http://www.michaelmoore.com/" title="Miserable Failure">"Miserable Failure"</a>)

To: janetgreen; Sam's Army; BurbankKarl; drjack; MonroeDNA

Evacuation

If any Floridians are planning on evacuating now, please consider driving to the Keys.

No traffic, no danger, little bad weather, lots of rooms, lots of gas, margaritas and conch fritters.

I can’t believe more people haven’t figured this out yet. Took my boy and wife to Holliday Isle swimming in Islamorada 2 hours ago. A little windy, very widely scattered showers. Great place to ride out the storm. Spanish Motel in Key West is probably better, but another hour and a half away.

362 posted on 09/03/2004 4:47:46 PM PDT by elfman2

To: NotJustAnotherPrettyFace

Down to a Cat 2!

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 40a...Corrected
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004

Corrected Georgetown on abaco islands to Hopetown

 
...Frances weakens some as it drifts slowly west-northwestward...
...High winds and heavy rainfall pummel the northwestern Bahamas...

 
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.  A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 77.5 west or about 90 miles...
145 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and 200
miles east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.

 
Frances has been drifting slowly toward the west-northwest near 4
mph...6 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. However...steering currents have become weak and
some erratic motion can be expected. On this track...the core of
Hurricane Frances will continue to move slowly over the
northwestern Bahamas tonight...and will be near the Florida East
Coast on Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...170 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Frances a strong category two hurricane. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. During the past hour...ham radio operators at
abaco island reported sustained winds of 70 mph with gusts to 88 mph
at Hopetown...and sustained winds of 80 mph at Little Harbor. The
Settlement point C-man station on western Grand Bahama Island
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph with a gust to 62 mph
...And a gust to 45 mph was reported at the Lake Worth Florida
C-man station.

 
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a hurricane hunter
plane was 960 mb...28.35 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye
of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on
the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm
surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Storm
surge flooding of 5 feet above normal lake water level is expected
in Lake Okeechobee.

 
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances over the Bahamas.

 
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

 
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...25.9 N... 77.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 4 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...105
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

363 posted on 09/03/2004 4:52:56 PM PDT by Dog Gone

I have one of the great recipes for conch fritters.
2 of the keys are fresh conch and garlic.

364 posted on 09/03/2004 4:56:33 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)

I heard a possibility of 12+hours sustained 100 mph winds for Orlando yesterday. I brushed it aside as too-much-too-early predictions but now I'm wondering. This is one nasty bugger of a storm!

365 posted on 09/03/2004 4:57:06 PM PDT by lainie

Downgraded from Category 3 to 2 - great news, Dog Gone!

366 posted on 09/03/2004 4:58:22 PM PDT by bd476

That's a little like how the flight attendants always remind: your nearest exit might be right behind you.

stay safe out there & cheers!

367 posted on 09/03/2004 4:59:05 PM PDT by lainie

Thanks for the pingy-dingy. I'm safe, I think. Fort Lauderdale will get wind and rain, for sure, but the brunt seems to be quite a bit north.

Besides, my two labs barely fit in the car!

368 posted on 09/03/2004 5:00:02 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Kerry is a traitor)

Yeah, I was thinking of fleeing with my 5 dogs and a wife in the pickup, probably a good thing we thought better of it.

369 posted on 09/03/2004 5:01:45 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)

Moving at 4 mph now...

What a weird storm.

370 posted on 09/03/2004 5:02:20 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Kerry is a traitor)

I remember you saying that. Your in Broward?

371 posted on 09/03/2004 5:03:17 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Kerry is a traitor)

One of the predictions was that this storm would be moving NW-ward at 2mph, with a possible stall. Not my idea of a good time, if I was anywhere near the east coast.

372 posted on 09/03/2004 5:07:42 PM PDT by NotJustAnotherPrettyFace (Michael <a href = "http://www.michaelmoore.com/" title="Miserable Failure">"Miserable Failure"</a>)

No, south Dade.
I'd figure we were out of the woods, except the thing has kind of stopped, maybe.
Anyway, I believe we're still going to be OK here.
Boarded up anyway.

373 posted on 09/03/2004 5:07:57 PM PDT by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)

Well, a very strong Category 2, with the potential to increase as it inches forward toward the cost.

But this was a slamdunk Cat 4 a couple of days ago. The extra time it's taking to get ashore allows more people to get safe, and the weakening is fabulous news. If nothing else changes, this could still be very damaging, maybe more from flooding than winds, but with far less loss of life than a Cat 4 racing ashore.

374 posted on 09/03/2004 5:08:50 PM PDT by Dog Gone

It sure is strange. Hopefully it will stall out completely. It's still good though if everyone continues to act "as if" it's the strong Category 4 it was. If anything, this is a good dress rehearsal for any future storms.

375 posted on 09/03/2004 5:10:03 PM PDT by bd476

Flooding will be bad enough. Continued prayers that it weakens even more.

376 posted on 09/03/2004 5:11:19 PM PDT by bd476

I just heard about the 2 mph thing on the local radio (am 610).

I hope it finds reverse and starts backing up!

377 posted on 09/03/2004 5:12:01 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Kerry is a traitor)

THanks for refreshing my memory.

I assume you have power--lol! The earlier band took out 186,000 people, power wise.

378 posted on 09/03/2004 5:13:37 PM PDT by MonroeDNA (Kerry is a traitor)

Did anybody see Shepard Smith going ballistic when he thought he was off camera just now on Fox News?

379 posted on 09/03/2004 5:16:37 PM PDT by hawkeye101 (There's room in Hell for everybody.)

380 posted on 09/03/2004 5:20:01 PM PDT by lainie

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