Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






=========================================



First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



=========================================



EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




=========================================



















Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



.

[bd476]

If his name is "Paul" he is in Toronto Canada.

[BurbankKarl]

http://djmegahertz.com/ka4eps/main.htm

interesting, hearing stuff on the Grand Rapids feed, but not the FL feed which I sent you....

[bd476]

Oh how I wish I could e-mail you all of our chocolate. How's the popcorn and caffeine supply?

[Sam's Army]

Any news on CURRENT traffic conditions/gas availability for I-75 from Tampa to mid-Georgia?

[bd476]

That's a beautiful webcam view of downtown Orlando, Lainie. It almost looks like a painting!

[BurbankKarl]

http://www.qrz.com/

usually you can enter the callsign into this website, and get the address for their license....if it comes up empty, you can usually Google it too and get a location.

I heard a Canadian sailboat last night giving reports....they were holed up in a harbor.

[Vigilantcitizen]

Chocolate is beginning to be rationed in the house. Things are not looking good.

You mean to tell me you didn't stock up on a hurricane munchie stash?

Amatuer. :)

[BurbankKarl]

last I read there were shortages of gas...they were telling people to drive to the western coast.

[Sam Cree]

It's calm and sunny at the moment, but we've had 2 feeder bands pass through today with gusts of 50 or 60 mph. There's a few branches off trees, and some planted trees went down in the park nearby. Everyone is boarded up.

Hoping for the best, which is that she doesn't turn left any.

[bd476]

Thanks Karl! I will try that one, too.

This is the Deerfield, Florida feed I think you provided which has consistently clear feeds and not much static or interference:

Shortwave Hurricane watch net 14.325 - KA4EPS Deerfield Beach, Fl

[Severa]

Sitting here in VA Beach watching and waiting to hear from relatives all over the state of FL. Got myself a 6 pack of Killians Irish Red...

here's hoping it lasts the weekend...

[Dog Gone]

At the rate this storm is moving, Frances won't make landfall until tomorrow afternoon. That is an awful long time to be battering a single spot.

And it's an awful long time to be sitting over the Gulf Stream while getting there.

[NautiNurse]

Borrowed the new paint color from my next door neighbor. People are driving past the house to read all the windows...

[BurbankKarl]

http://www.traffic.com/Tampa-St-Petersburg/Tampa-St-Petersburg-Traffic-Reports.html

tampa traffic

[bd476]

Severa said: "...Got myself a 6 pack of Killians Irish Red..." and "...here's hoping it lasts the weekend..."

Take sips, man, be strong! :-) God Bless and protect you and your loved ones.

[Dog Gone]

Wow, you're taking no chances, even with Ivan!

I suspect I'll have to worry more about Ivan than you will. It's coming across so low it might brush Venezuela before turning north. It's a prime candidate to slip into the Gulf.

It's projected to be Cat 3 by Wednesday.

[Ditter]

I live on the Gulf Coast of Texas & I am praying for the safety of *everyone* in this monsters path. Get to high ground, folks. Now!

[drjack]

Don't plan on buying gas until Tuesday.

[janetgreen]

I'm here in California. My elderly aunt lives in Port St. Lucie, and I'm worried about her. I learned that people from the mobile homes have been evacuated. Have you heard anything about where they might be?

[bd476]

Great boarding up, Nauti and that's lovely color coordination on the paint job. Glad to see that all your hatches are battened. Stay safe and God Bless.