Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[Dog Gone]

ROFL

[mewzilla]

The 11 am EST advisory should be up any minute.

[bizeemommie]

Well, I am still here in Jax. Kind of windy at my house right now. It probably isn't related. I wish this thing would just blow it self out. I am still praying for all of my fellow Floridians down south.

[VeniVidiVici]

You can leave the boards up for the next fighter now entering the ring?

LOL! Without looking at any other maps I'll say.... Havana and Pensacola (apologies to residents of both - except for Fidel, of course)

Criminy. If I have to take anymore time off work for these things my boss just may change her mind about all these days off to prepare being freebies and not vacation.

[Dog Gone]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 39

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004

data from an Air Force plane indicate that the inner core or eyewall
of Frances has deteriorated since yesterday and the central pressure
has risen to 959 mb. In addition...some upper-level southwesterly
winds are currently creating some shear over the hurricane
disrupting the cloud pattern. This means that the hurricane has
weakened and the initial intensity has been lowered to 100 knots.
However...Frances is still a dangerous hurricane. There is plenty
of time...about 36 hours before landfall...for changes in the inner
structure of the hurricane to occur...while the hurricane moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This could easily lead to
re-intensification. However...at this time...the initial intensity
calls for a 100-knot hurricane at landfall.

Frances is moving between the west-northwest and northwest about 8
knots. The subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place
forcing the hurricane toward the Florida East Coast...but because
steering currents are expected to weaken further...the hurricane
will likely slow down on its way to Florida. This could delay the
landfall a few more hours. Numerical guidance continues to bring
the hurricane over Florida during the next 2 to 3 days.

Because Frances is a slow moving hurricane...it could bring
torrential rains to portions of Florida.

Forecaster Avila

[FlJoePa]

Boy, I don't like that. Has that forecast track shifted south?

[mewzilla]

Thanks!

[OXENinFLA]

I think it is going to run into real estate called FL first.

Have you seen how it's moving? It looks like it's making a shift to the north.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[janetgreen]

but she refused to go to a safer area, because of her 7 cats

Bless her heart. I pray she and her kitties will all be OK.

[OXENinFLA]

shifted south?

No, more north.

[OXENinFLA]

See post #142.

[Types_with_Fist]

In case no one answered you yet; warm water is the fuel for the hurricane engine. The warmer the water, the faster the engine revs. The Gulf Stream is the warmest water around Florida (carries the Gulf of Mexico water through the Florida Straits and then north).

You should also mention that if the storm was well organized in the first place, as this one has been, it can also happen much faster.

[VeniVidiVici]

That is only one part of a very large tree there. It will either work for me or against me. I is pretty solid so I am not worried about it coming down, but there is always the chance.

One thing that was apparent from the tornoados of a few years ago and Charlie of a few weeks ago, is that the oaks don't shatter. They all uproot from the rootball. To me, this shows the importance of getting them trimmed and thinned once every few years.

Now the pine trees either lose all of their limbs or they break-off about a third of the way up.

[Chemist_Geek]

Monitoring the Hurricane Watch Net on Ham Radio 14.325 via this Internet streaming link.

Windows Media Player hasn't a clue what to do with that link. *sigh* Can't install WinAmp on a work machine...

[4CJ]

Ping.

[cogitator]

You should also mention that if the storm was well organized in the first place, as this one has been, it can also happen much faster.

Good point -- exactly what happened when Charley went over the extremely warm shallow water on the west Florida shelf. Frances is currently disorganizing, but the slow forward speed will give it too much time to reorganize. Shear, baby, shear!

[NonValueAdded]

Surrender Dorothy

[NonValueAdded]

Wonderful tag line!

[Libertarian444]

[NonValueAdded]

Thank goodness you have that tree leaning towards the house. It will protect you from some of the rain.

??? 10 inches of rain, saturated ground weakening root system, wind in same direction of lean = acme roof opener.