Posted on 09/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne
I am in Melbourne..and think it is truly going to stall right on our coast and drift inland from southern brevard/north vero beach for 2 days...that scenario is VERY REAL...and VERY POSSIBLE.
thankfully she has weakened substantially in the last 24 hours..down to a cat 3 now.
and there really is no reason to believe a 2 day stall would happen...all models and forecasts have a 5-10mph steady movement over the weekend.
Folks here in Louisiana are keeping one eye on this monster. Prayers and thoughts to all the folks in Florida.
will be interesting to see what it does in the future
Seems like all Florida hurricanes that start with the letter F (like Floyd) fake us out.
Looks like Frances will wimp out also.
Same here in Mobile.
Are you anywhere near Port St. Lucie? I have an elderly aunt there and I can't contact her.
Well it better pull a right turn soon and leave us alone. I am due west of Vero in Eastern Highlands co. I am not a happy camper after the crap we got from Charley.
Right around Palm Bay...
the winds are less because it has been beating up the bahamas...winds will increase again when it gets over water. i wish we'd be lucky enough for it to wimp, but i don't think so tim.
DH is on the florida turnpike..... they were going 15 mph when he called.
The shear has been going on for 7 hours now..it will last another 12 maybe. The warm water will continue to replace the center that gets eaten by the light shear...and it is VERY LIGHT. The reason the models didn't see this happening is because light shear is not seen usually unless affecting a storm.
Local media and Max Mayfield said a "drift to 2-3 mph" inland Saturday night in North Vero Beach...but the 100 miles south of it is in play until tomorrow when the track will be tightened even more.
Decline in winds has nothing to do with the Bahamas; it's a bit of dry air, plus the outflow being cut in one quadrant at the 300mb level.
I am about an hr away from Pt.St.Lucie...in Palm Bay area.
Not correct; a variety of models show a long stall; the ECMWF has the storm right on the coast not moving for 24 hours over Melbourne, FL, for example.
Possibility of 20+ inches of rain for parts of Florida.
Will Jerry buy the farm due to flying debris?
Where does Rush live? Isn't he on the coast near West Palm Beach?
FWIW I just talked to my grandfather in West Melbourne. He said the winds are going to cause it to hook to the left and go SW of Melbourne. Landfall at Vero? He has no fancy computer model, but has lived in W. Melbourne since it was a dairyfarm.
He mentioned that the evac routes were jammed, and Lowes was a madhouse. He plans on closing his shutters and watching TV.
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